LNP vs ON 1.6%
Incumbent MP
Ian Rickuss, since 2004.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Lockyer covers rural areas between Toowoomba and Ipswich. The seat covers the Lockyer Valley local government area and southern parts of the Somerset council area. The seat covers the towns of Laidley, Gatton, Lowood and Helidon.
Redistribution
Lockyer’s western territory (the Lockyer Valley council area) remained unchanged, but there were significant changes at its eastern end. Lockyer previously covered the southern rural parts of the City of Ipswich, but these areas were transferred to Scenic Rim, in exchange for Lockyer gaining the southern tip of the Somerset council area from Ipswich West. I have estimated the LNP margin against One Nation at 1.2%, but One Nation came a distant third in the eastern parts of the electorate, so this estimate relies on preference projections in that area.
History
The seat of Lockyer first existed from 1888 to 1932, and has existed continuously since 1950. The modern seat has never been held by the Labor Party.
The seat was held from 1950 to 1980 by Liberal Party members, and was won in 1980 by the National Party’s Tony Fitzgerald.
Fitzgerald held the seat throughout the 1980s and 1990s, but in 1998 lost to One Nation’s Peter Prenzler.
Prenzler left One Nation in 1999 to found the City Country Alliance. In 2001, Prenzler lost to the new One Nation candidate, Bill Flynn.
Flynn became leader of One Nation in the Queensland Parliament following the 2001 election, and held the seat for one term before losing in 2004.
The seat has been held since 2004 by Ian Rickuss, who held the seat first for the National Party and for the LNP since the 2008 merger. Rickuss easily saw off a challenge from Katter’s Australian Party in 2012, and then narrowly held on against Pauline Hanson in 2015. Hanson came within 114 votes of winning Lockyer.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Ian Rickuss is not running for re-election.
- Jim McDonald (Liberal National)
- Jim Savage (One Nation)
- Ian Simons (Greens)
- Nicole Lincoln (Labor)
- Tony Parr (Independent)
Assessment
The presence of One Nation makes this seat hard to predict. The candidacy of Pauline Hanson was a unique factor which can’t be replicated, now that she has been elected to the Senate. The party’s vote has shot up across Queensland, and you’d expect Lockyer to be a key target, but we don’t have good information about where these votes are coming from.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Ian Rickuss | Liberal National | 10,259 | 33.7 | -18.3 | 34.7 |
| Pauline Hanson | One Nation | 8,132 | 26.7 | +26.7 | 25.0 |
| Steve Leese | Labor | 7,652 | 25.2 | +7.5 | 26.7 |
| David Neuendorf | Katter’s Australian Party | 2,111 | 6.9 | -16.9 | 6.1 |
| Clare Rudkin | Greens | 1,190 | 3.9 | -2.6 | 3.8 |
| Craig Gunnis | Palmer United Party | 1,068 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 2.7 |
| Others | 0.9 | ||||
| Informal | 476 | 1.5 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Redist |
| Ian Rickuss | Liberal National | 13,230 | 50.2 | 51.6 |
| Pauline Hanson | One Nation | 13,116 | 49.8 | 48.4 |
| Exhausted | 4,066 | 13.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Lockyer have been divided into three parts: central, east and west. The ‘east’ covers booths previously contained in the seat of Ipswich West, and contained in the Somerset council area, while the remainder is contained within Lockyer Valley council area.
The Liberal National Party vote ranged from 30.6% in the centre to 38.1% in the east.
Labor’s vote ranged from over 40% in the east to only 16% in the west.
One Nation polled over 30% in the centre, but only polled 12.6% in the east.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | ON prim % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 30.6 | 22.9 | 32.3 | 10,581 | 38.3 |
| East | 38.1 | 40.7 | 12.6 | 4,651 | 16.8 |
| West | 37.6 | 16.1 | 27.6 | 4,313 | 15.6 |
| Other votes | 36.7 | 29.4 | 21.3 | 8,116 | 29.3 |
Election results in Lockyer at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between LNP vs One Nation two-candidate-preferred votes, Liberal National primary votes, Labor primary votes and One Nation primary votes.
Absolute certain One Nation gain…..wish I could say they’d win none but they’re a certainty to win this. Put it this way, if they don’t win this, they will have an absolute fizzer of an election night.
Feel the Bern misses the whole issue with the Ashby-Hanson Party. Locker did not go to Hanson last time even with her as the candidate. But her candidature stopped another KAP candidate from being elected. Consequently with the One Nation candidate Jim Savage being on the nose with the Ashby-Hanson executive they will give him no support and probably dis-endorse him before the election.
His role is to raise money for Hanson to play with not to get himself elected. Last thing she wants is an experienced operator to stand up to Ashby.
@ Andrew, hope you are right, I do not want any One Nation MP’s in Qld parliament but I just get the feeling One Nation has a base and that base does not care what the media says the party has or hasn’t done, they’ve made up their minds…sort of like that 30 percent that has stuck by Donald Trump in the US. Also, One Nation and Pauline Hanson herself were seen at the last state election as something that was once a thing, then something happened in past couple of years and Hanson got right back up there in the spotlight, I blame Sunrise. If Pauline was running in that seat this time, she’d win an a massive landslide….unfortunately. Happy to be wrong though Andrew.
I disagree @Feel the Bern, Labor will finish third in this seat, with compulsory preferential voting, I’m 90% sure the LNP will be holding Lockyer with a solid swing to them. With no Hanson + Labor preferences, the LNP should be a shoe-in.
Lockyer is PHON’s best chance but your right PRP they will have no allies and unless she can get ahead of the LNP she will get no support.
Cant see Jim Savage holding the support Pauline had as well so although it might be close I think PHON’s best chance might just fall short
13% exhaustion rate oh my. Digging around the ecq stats in 2015 60% of ALP and KAP preferences that flowed in this seat went to ONP while 30% exhausted…
Certainly the ball is in ONPs court.
I know someone in that electorate who is very into their politics and he said Jim Savage is growing support by the day. Also, is Labor even running a candidate? They better hurry up and select one. Also can’t compare Pauline 2015, if she ran now she’d probably get 60 percent of the primary, things have changed since then. Of course I’d love to se One Nation fail miserably.
Feel the Bern you’ll get your wish as although I like Jim Savage the James Ashby burden will be too much to bear without Pauline there…….This one should remain a safe LNP seat.
Things might have been different had Pauline won but she didn’t and I cant imagine why such a strong social conservative would be taking orders from a man like James Ashby. The Ashby-Hanson party is no longer the force that faced the 2016 federal election and even if the ALP are late their preferences will not go to PHON and unless another conservative minor or independent can help draw votes to One Nation they will run short.
Tony ZEgenhagen is correct the Ashby factor will take at leat 5% off ON and JIm Savage will not get the same vote as PH. THIs means that I think PHON will be down by about 15% in this electorate. HOwever there is nearly 10% KAP and PUP votes which will probably flow to Savage.
THIs means formula is 26.7 -5% (Ashby factor) (-10% Hanson Personal vote factor) PLacing Savage on about 11.7%. LIberals got 33% last election. THIs will go up by about 8% this election meaning LIberals will be on about 41% Labor on about 25% + Greens 4% + 8% (previous KAP & PH Votes) THerefore this one is going to be very close. BUt the fight is between LNP (with AShby Hanson PReferences at about 41% and and ALP with GReen PReferences at about 49%. THe Maths does not seem to be quite right but I am tipping LOckyer could go ALP more likely to go LNPO but unlikely to go PHON. LOckyer has got to be a target seat for a truly independent middle of the road Party in October 2021..
The absolute basement of the One Nation vote in this seat is 20%. It probably is going to be about 30-35% on election day.
Anyone thinking One Nation is getting 11.7% in Lockyer either severely underestimates them or misunderstands the current voter environment.
And to keep mentioning the Asbhy effect and or Pauline effect is just plain ridiculous. Without these two it would be just One Nation, not Pauline Hansons One Nation and we all remember what happened at the last election. Andrew, A lot of regional seats will be going to PHON and the KAP know this as well. Phon and KAP vote on a lot of similar issues and between them will hold a few seats in the next election.
Shaun… Paulines return to the party (as her maiden speech states and most minor party members know) was through the work of Ian Nelson. Sayara certainly marketed Paulines return and deserves a real pat on the back for her efforts. Both those loyal servants are now gone along with a heap of others that got her the vote in 2016. Ashby on the other hand did very little expect fly her around in a plane (which is still under scrutiny) and lay doubt on her credibility of truly representing her supporters. Pauline will suffer from the Ashby influence and even without a real competitor in minor party terms ….will not get anywhere near the vote or seats some pundits are touting. That much is certain.
Been out of action a few weeks, loving the debate here with the election looming. I’ve seen some internal and also public polling which has Jim Savage on a 32 percent primary here. I would argue it’s higher, there’s a shy One Nation vote like there was a shy Trump vote who lie to pollsters. Nevertheless 32 percent is a strong primary for a minor party. I did initially say this was One Nation’s best chance to win a seat, I’m still sticking by that.
Since this item was published Labor has elected it’s candidate. Nicole Lincoln. I have provided a link to her Facebook below.
Don’t discount the growing southern end of the division. This was previously in the Division of Ipswich West and the incumbent retains huge pull in the area.
Further, the increase in population in the Somerset region and the lack of services, transport and employment will way against the LNP.
on a repeat of 2015 this is the only seat onp can win Without lnp preferences…….. every where else onp needs lnp pref to win…….like 1998….. onp has promised to preference against all sitting members……so where they chose to run candidates is important….. they have run candidates in most seats Labor could lose….. but surprise surprise…….. they have chosen liberal seats in the 2 – 3 % range in seats like Everton and Gavan to not field a candidate……………………
This is a seat whereby if there is no deal done between ALP/LNP then it will fall. Knowing the operators of both majors a deal would have been done here in exchange for another seat….. Possibly Bundaberg
Despite the conventional wisdom, this seat is by no means the best chance for One Nation. ON’s best chances will be in marginalish Labor electorates like Maryborough, Thuringowa, Bundaberg and perhaps even Ipswich West and Logan. Because the ALP is preferencing against them, they will need an exceptionally strong primary vote to win LNP seats. Even 40% might not guarantee victory with full preferential voting.
With regards to Lockyer, it should also be remembered that in 2015, Pauline Hanson herself was on the ballot here and OPV was in force with the ALP running a “put the LNP last campaign” Neither of these considerations apply this time. Not saying the ONP can’t win here – they have won twice before, so that counts for something – just that it will not be the lay down misere that people seem to assume.
I agree, I don’t think this is ON’s best chance – Maryborough and Ipswich West being most likely and I guess Logan, given today’s polling!
Not only Pauline Hanson herself running but also the sitting member continuing were combined factors in the last result. I think Rickuss retiring and Hanson not the candidate will help the LNP retain, just.
Local ON candidate receiving minimal support from head office, Little or no chance for Pauline to visit as she seems to be preoccupied by the forthcoming Tasmanian elections.
From what I have observed on the ground in Lockyer Savage is viewed with quite a degree of suspicion.
Rumour has it that the LNP’s candidate to be carrying some rather heavy baggage from his time in the Queensland Police.
PHON gain, one of their first of the night.
Line ball between LNP and One Nation. Labpr pregerences may sabe the seat for the LNP.
I will go with LNP retain, but with no confidence.