ALP 4.1%
Incumbent MP
Brittany Lauga, since 2015.
Geography
North Queensland. Keppel covers regional areas along the coast to the north of Rockhampton, including Yeppoon, northern suburbs of Rockhampton, and the Keppel islands.
Redistribution
Keppel lost the suburb of Koongal to Rockhampton, and lost a small area north of Rockhampton to Mirani.
History
Keppel was first contested at the 1992 election. A former seat with the same name had existed from 1912 to 1960. The current incarnation was held by the National Party until 2004 and then was held by Labor until 2012. The seat has alternated since then.
The seat was first won in 1992 by National Party MP Vince Lester. He had previously held the seats of Belyando and Peak Downs, having first been elected in 1974. Lester had served as a minister in the National Party government from 1983 until 1989.
Lester retired in 2004, and Keppel was won by ALP candidate Paul Hoolihan. Hoolihan won re-election in 2006 and 2009.
In 2012, Hoolihan was defeated by LNP candidate Bruce Young. Young held the seat for one term, and lost in 2015 to Labor’s Brittany Lauga.
Candidates
- Matt Loth (One Nation)
- Brittany Lauga (Labor)
- Clancy Mullbrick (Greens)
- Peter Blundell (Liberal National)
Assessment
Keppel is a marginal Labor seat, and could be in play at this election.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Brittany Lauga | Labor | 14,403 | 44.4 | +11.0 | 43.6 |
| Bruce Young | Liberal National | 12,698 | 39.2 | -5.1 | 39.9 |
| Warren Purnell | Palmer United Party | 2,679 | 8.3 | +8.3 | 8.5 |
| Brandon Jones | Greens | 1,497 | 4.6 | -1.8 | 4.7 |
| Bruce Diamond | Independent | 1,143 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 3.4 |
| Informal | 554 | 1.7 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Brittany Lauga | Labor | 16,465 | 54.8 | +11.2 | 54.1 |
| Bruce Young | Liberal National | 13,583 | 45.2 | -11.2 | 45.9 |
| Exhausted | 2,372 | 7.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Keppel have been divided into three areas. Polling places in the Rockhampton urban area have been grouped together, with the remainder split into central and north.
The Labor two-party-preferred vote ranged from 51% in the north to 61% in Rockhampton.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Rockhampton | 60.9 | 8,343 | 27.6 |
| North | 51.0 | 5,152 | 17.0 |
| Central | 55.2 | 3,598 | 11.9 |
| Other votes | 50.3 | 13,153 | 43.5 |
Two-party-preferred in Keppel at the 2015 QLD state election
One Nation could win this seat. I like the sitting Labor member but there’s just too many Hanson types here. She gets a standing ovation when she visits Central Qld.
The LNP vote would really have to crater for One Nation to get a look in here. At their 1998 high-water mark, they only managed third.
In THE AUstralian 3 OCtober Garry JOhns lists KEppel as one of the key seats.
Keppel may be represented by an ALP member at the moment.
THe longest serving member in Keppell was VInce Lester and he was without doubt in my mind the best local MP that I have worked with.
When I was a TEachers UNion delegate VInce got Bjelke -Petersen on the phone to em and got QTU Blackwater BRanch an invitation to attend a COUntry Cabinet meeting in Sprongsure. Thios was much to chagrin of TEachers Union and EDucation Department. I had great pleasure in writing on my leave application as the reason for absence “To attend COuntry Cabinet meeting art the request of Sir Joh Bjelke -Petersen” The issue we were concerned about was teacher housing . Subsequent ALP and LNP governments have just about wiped out teacher housing. BJelke -Petersen , Katter and DUaringa Shire Town CLerk Derm Stower as part of mine approval process made Utah build Teacher and Mine housing and then hand to Housing Commission for management..
Compare this with Adani where the railway was built by government and then handed to company. Note ALP and LNP are singing from same hymn sheet on this type of issue. They argue over the colour of the hymn sheet paper but not the wording of the hymn..
It is interesting that Liberals have finally learnt from Katter that Gas in Australia is our gas and that before we let multinationals export it GOvernment has a responsibility to ensure that our needs are met.
IT is time for Government to play an active role in economy rather than wiping out industry. Yeppoon has lost just about all industry other than tourism. No railway, PIneapple’s just about gone, Trawlers wiped out by ALP in process of worshipping Green Ideology No wonder Ashby-Hanson is a threat.
Andrew, Matt Loth is the One Nation candidate and he should be the favourite. All the reports and feedback show he is campaigning well. I can not see this changing as PHON is polling really well in this seat.
On a side note, it is note the Ashby / Hanson team… at a state level please refer it to Dickson / Cox…..
Matt Loth should gain this seat easy, he has had a stand out campaign and with One nation polling well he should gain the seat easily mainly because they have a good candidate.
Shaun and Young NXT, 2016 senate numbers here were LNP 35.6% ALP 33.2% ON 21.2% GRN 6.5% OTH 3.5%. One Nation are now polling a approximately a third higher, so I’d estimate it could currently be LNP 32.0% ALP 29.7% ON 28.3% GRN 6.5% OTH 3.5% in Keppel.
I wouldn’t put it past One Nation to get into the runoff in this seat but I certainly don’t think they are favourites to win. If they were to win Keppel and see similar success statewide One Nation would be winning 20+ seats…
Shaun
I refer to PHON team as the AShby Hanson team because the power behind the imagev is AShby..
IF DIckson is re-elected which i think highly un-likely I think the un-elected AShby Hanson excecutive will determine wjho the leader in QLd Parliament is. WE must ensure that Ashby doesc not become the tewenty fiorst century version of Bialoguski or the Faceless men revelaled by Allan Reid.
Ashby-Hanson iare a threat to democracy in AUstarlia and are a threat to freedom. THEy need to be placed last (or possibly second last) on every candidates. I for one will place any minor candidate below majors if they do not relegate PHON to below Majors and I promise to place any major party that does a deal with Ashby-Hanson below other major party. So if LIberals want my preference they had better stop dancing with Ashby-Hanson. I have no doubt that ALP will not do a deal with Ashby-Hanson. THe ONe Nation members who have deserted PH are in unanimity that it was AShby that was the cause of their defection.. Shan Ju LIn now an independent candidate for BUndamba summed it up perfectly when she said “Pauline Hanson is not in control of her own party, and her controversial chief-of-staff James Ashby is running the show.” See BRisbane TImes 9 Jan 2017.
One Nation seem to be campaigning very hard here, and with support for the casino i think they may just beat the LNP and should win on first preferences.
It will be a close seat to watch but I can’t see Labor holding it. It will be LNP v PHON.
onp a Casino led recovery….. wacky……..
LNP gain, Labor no chance of holding, will be one of the LNP’s first gains of the election night. Game over.
I am not that confident. You must be factoring a significant drop in the Labor primary and One Nation preferences flowing strongly to the LNP.
One Nation should finish first on first-preference votes, and then in a Labor v One Nation. One Nation should win on LNP preferences.
Probably Something like this;
ONP 35%
ALP 34%
LNP 25%
GRN 6%
TPP
ONP V ALP
52% 48%
Don’t know why this seat is seen as so vulnerable for Labor. It was created from the old Rockhampton North in 1992 and only won by the Nationals then because the same redistribution abolished Vince Lester’s old seat of Peak Downs and he contested here. Lester was one of the larger than life ministers in the Bjelke-Petersen government and this enabled him to win. He then held for 12 years, the seat reverting to the ALP on his retirement.
The only scenario for a Labor loss is if One Nation manages to overtake the LNP, which is by no means guaranteed and the ALP also takes a big hit to their primary vote. Can’t see any argument why the LNP would win it. In 1998, Capricornia was the weakest region for the ONP outside the south-east corner.
@Peterjk23 Labor will lose because people don’t like the sitting member. It’s as simple as that. I always liked her but she lied about the Great Keppel casino, did a massive backflip. Plus her husband has been bad PR for her.
Interesting as I am now hearing rumblings that One Nation is in front of the LNP here.
Definitely, One Nation has been campaigning very hard in Keppel, it is probably a good shot for them to gain the seat.
PHON gain
PHON gain.
mixed Rockhamption near by country seaT………. would not be suprised if this seat
Maryborough and Mirani are Alp retained…… if yes then certain alp win
Awfully close seat but I think LNP preferences may give it to One Nation.