ALP 16.0%
Incumbent MP
Jennifer Howard, since 2015.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Ipswich covers the central suburbs of the city of Ipswich on the southern side of Bundamba creek, specifically the Ipswich central business district, Woodend, Booval, Newtown, Eastern Heights, Raceview, Churchill, Yamanto and parts of Bundamba.
Redistribution
Ipswich expanded to the south, gaining Deebing Heights and other semi-rural areas from Lockyer, losing Yamanto to Ipswich West and the remainder of the suburb of Bundamba to the seat of Bundamba. These changes slightly increased the Labor margin from 15.9% to 16.0%.
History
The seat of Ipswich was first created in 1860, and existed continuously until 1960. It was restored at the 1972 election. The seat has been held by the ALP since 1983.
The newly restored seat of Ipswich was first won in 1972 by Llewellyn Edwards. He was appointed to the ministry in 1974. In 1978 he became Deputy Premier and Liberal Party leader, and continued in those roles until his retirement in 1983.
David Hamill won the seat for the ALP in 1983. He served as a minister in the Goss Labor government from 1989 to 1996. Hamill served as Treasurer in the Beattie government’s first term from 1998 to 2001, when he retired.
Rachel Nolan won Ipswich in 2001. She held Ipswich for four terms, and served as a minister in the Bligh government from 2009 to 2012, covering portfolios such as Finance, Transport and Arts.
In 2012, Nolan was defeated by LNP candidate Ian Berry. Berry served one term, losing in 2015 to Labor candidate Jennifer Howard.
Candidates
- Malcolm Roberts (One Nation)
- Andrew Caswell (Liberal National)
- Brett Morrissey (Greens)
- Troy Aggett (Independent)
- Jennifer Howard (Labor)
Assessment
Ipswich is a safe Labor seat.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jennifer Howard | Labor | 15,904 | 53.2 | +22.1 | 52.3 |
| Ian Berry | Liberal National | 8,526 | 28.5 | -7.3 | 28.5 |
| Pat Walsh | Greens | 2,245 | 7.5 | +1.9 | 7.6 |
| Patricia Petersen | Independent | 1,767 | 5.9 | -2.9 | 5.6 |
| Tim Stieler | Family First | 1,438 | 4.8 | +1.7 | 4.6 |
| One Nation | 1.0 | ||||
| Katter’s Australian Party | 0.2 | ||||
| Palmer United Party | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 629 | 2.1 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jennifer Howard | Labor | 18,517 | 65.9 | +20.1 | 66.0 |
| Ian Berry | Liberal National | 9,581 | 34.1 | -20.1 | 34.0 |
| Exhausted | 1,782 | 6.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Ipswich have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59% in the south to 70.5% in the north-east.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 59.1 | 9,229 | 35.5 |
| North-East | 70.5 | 5,829 | 22.4 |
| North-West | 66.7 | 2,785 | 10.7 |
| Other votes | 61.9 | 8,184 | 31.4 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Ipswich at the 2015 QLD state election
Update to the candidate list – the One Nation candidate resigned to run as an independent.
Malcolm Roberts now running for Ipswich for One Nation. God help Qld if he gets in. He’s a chance too here, Pauline is from Ipswich.
Malcolm Roberts could be a chance because he is very high profile.
Absolutely, although I’m hoping he’s so well known because he’s a goose not because people actually want him.
If Malcolm Roberts is elected, I will eat a car.
Until the LNP has a candidate here, unfortunately Roberts will be a chance.
I think he is only high profile because he has been a senator. I don’t think One Nation will get any extra votes because HE is the candidate, as opposed to anyone else.
Malcolm Roberts will get more than 77 votes this time, but I don’t see Labor losing this seat.
Also the Greens candidate is now their mayoral candidate, Brett Morrissey.
I have to believe that Roberts will not be a positive factor for PHON here. The average PHON candidate is a strange costumer, but Roberts is a special flavour of insanity. If Roberts entices people to vote PHON who wouldn’t have voted for a different PHON candidate… well then my opinion of the human race will be diminished.
The issue of 77 votes is a complete furphy. Roberts got 77 votes beloe the line and was elected with preference flows that took him over QUota.
I have made it clear what I think of Ashby-Hanson party but “Roberts” was preferred over the remaining candidates.
Just as it is childish for PH to bewail the unfairness of the High Court it is childish childish to bewail that Roberts was elected.
Justifiably ONe could say that he was not a suitable candidate or that he was an illegal candidate but he was a candidate and was elected.
Lets hope people of Ipswich send him back to coal mines.
HE will no doubt be more compliant than TRoy Daggett who I understand is running as an independent..
One can now drive from Yamanto, West of Ipswich to Moggil and not leave territory where independent candidates thrown out of One Nation are standing against the party they were previousvsly endorsed for.
THis is why “Party” is the wrong word to describe Ashby- Hanson grouping and Discordance is a better term. They are tearing themselves to pieces like Rottweiler’s thrown into a pit together.
Andrew Jackson how many votes would you have liked Malcolm Roberts to get, in the Senate people vote for the party more often then not, if you have a look at individual senators most only get 1500 votes, however in the case of minor parties people vote for the party that then elects the candidates below.
P.S. Your constant degrading of One Nation is getting tiresome, we get it you don’t like them but you can chill out a bit.
WA Party
Read what I said and you will find that you are agreeing with me.
.
However also look at One Nation results and you will find that it was not Transfer votes that go Roberts elected but Preferences from other parties. Ashby-Hanson Party got 1.19 Quotas in Queensland Senate election. This means .19 of a quota were used to elect Roberts and .81 Quotas came from elsewhere.
The adverse comment about 77 votes does appear to have disappeared. But my comment was directed at legitimizing Roberts actual election although I accept that I regard the result as an abomination. Roberts was in fact the best of a bunch of Ashby-Hanson candidates .
I look forward to your apology. ONce again I noer that understandably One Nation supporters lack the commitment to place their names to the comment. Why is this?
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
I do see what you mean however I disagree in saying that Roberts is the best of the ON Candidates.
Additionally, I am not a ON supporter, instead I am a proud supporter of the western Australia patty. However I view ON and equal to the Greens and such I treat them the same way.
Andrew, I disagree with most things you say and as this election goes on I dare say I will disagree more. I have voted my life for Labor, LNP and One Nation and now run as a candidate for One Nation… I also see what goes on within the party more than you. You should just stick to reliable, positive comments based on facts and stop this Anti One nation Campaign as you never see me bag (Union) labor or (developer donation) LNP or (give our country away) Greens. I look forward to your apologies at the end of this election because I talk to people every day and trust me, my friend, they are fed up with the norm.
Shaun
I would have no information about Ashby-Hanson did not keep sacking candidates.
Captains Picks have not gone down well with electorate whether they be picks by Tony Abbott, Julia Gillard or Anastacia Palaszczuk. I suspect ex Senator Roberts will have a similar mill stone round his neck. MY prediction now is ALP win on Preferences with ON preferences NOT BEING COUNTED. After all ALP & Greens got v60% between them last time. I can not see Greens vote improving in Coal Town but any loss of Green votes will result in increased ALP vote. Roberts certainly will have a better chance of winning than Dickson in Buderim.
Any candidate who has not put up Corflutes today is badly organized and probably would not be an efficient MP. If they had not organized for Corflutes to go up they have not organized .
Shaun How many Corflutes have you up?
Will the Discordance lose any more candidates before election day?. after all 10 days is a long time in politics. After nomination on 7 NOV they are on the Ballot Paper as Pauline Hanson One nation candidates regardless. Therefore from 8 Nov. Candidates can telll the world what they actually think and still be ONE Nation candidates. NO need to hide your views about anything. Remember a Liberals Party PM had this problem with a recalcitrant candidate in Oxley at one time.
I’m really, really nervous this seat might fall to One Nation. I know it looks good on paper for Labor but I’m very nervous. Roberts has already been embarrassed once, I feel like One Nation will do everything to win this seat. They obviously feel they have a good chance otherwise why not chuck Roberts into a more regional mining seat? I’m nervous.
I feel like Ipswich could fall and I think One Nation could actually surprise as they seem to be running a strong unified campaign against both major parties and could pull off a surprise win in a lot of seats. Will be interesting to see what happens come 24th of November.
Roberts seems very confident with winning the seat, perhaps they’ve done some internal polling which shows a big swing to PHON?
Not that I care about sports bet nor polls to that point but did you read the news that PHON has had the most bets in this seat and he is now at $3.00…. Trouble I think Labor Trouble
I upgrade my previous offer from a car to a mini-bus.
What a shocking decision it will be for Ipswich to vote in a bloke just flying in until he can get back to senate. I feel like it’s gonna happen though
I personally wouldn’t have thought that Ipswich itself was a particularly strong One Nation area.
IIRC, in the old Oxley/Blair that Pauline Hanson contested, the best ON areas were in the Lockyer and Brisbane Valleys, not in urban Ipswich proper.
In 1998, One Nation put in a decent show in Ipswich (and won Ipswich West).
But I can’t image demographic changes have done them any favours since then. Moreover, they’re likely to poll below their 1998 high watermark.
Yes David, Heather Hill, their lead candidate couldn’t win Ipswich in 1998 when they had 25% statewide support, so I can’t see how they expect to get it now. Its a good publicity tactic though, running Mr Roberts here as it reminds people of the david & goliath history and the fish ‘n chip shop stuff which seems to resonate.
Heather Hill indeed! Malcolm Roberts’s resume is shaping up to look very similar to hers.
How’s the behavior on the Ipswich booths. . Heard gossip that one group were causing problems but as this was hear say I will wait for details before revealing the mis behavior? However we will soon hear that all other workers misbehave and one party’s behavior was impeccable, Any guesses as to the odd one out?
Has there been any polling on this seat?
ALP retain
Labor retain. Pauline’s appearances this week will probably add a few PHON votes but Labor retain on a heavily reduced majority.
Labor retain despite the Roberts hype.