LNP 3.4%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Cripps, since 2006.
Geography
North Queensland. Covers the Queensland coastline north of Townsville. The seat covers southern parts of Cassoway Coast council area, all of Hinchinbrook, and northern parts of Townsville LGA. The seat covers Ingham, Cardwell, Alice River, and some of the northern beaches of Townsville.
Redistribution
Hinchinbrook shifted south, losing the coast between Tully and Innisfail to the new seat of Hill, and gaining an area around Alice River on the outskirts of Townsville from Thuringowa. These changes cut the LNP margin from 7.1% to 3.4%.
History
The seat of Hinchinbrook was first created in 1950, and has been held by the Country/National/Liberal National Party since 1960.
Marc Rowell won the seat for the National Party in 1989. He briefly served as a minister in the final months of the Borbidge coalition government in 1998.
Rowell retired in 2006, and was succeeded by Andrew Cripps. Cripps was re-elected in 2009, 2012 and 2015.
Candidates
- Peter Raffles (Independent)
- Margaret Bell (One Nation)
- Lyle Burness (Greens)
- Nick Dametto (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Paul Jacob (Labor)
- Andrew Cripps (Liberal National)
Assessment
Hinchinbrook is a marginal LNP seat, and is a strong area for One Nation.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Cripps | Liberal National | 12,156 | 40.7 | -3.4 | 38.3 |
| Jesse Trecco-Alexander | Labor | 7,155 | 23.9 | +7.4 | 27.4 |
| Barry Barnes | Katter’s Australian Party | 5,224 | 17.5 | -17.8 | 13.1 |
| Martin Brewster | Palmer United Party | 3,029 | 10.1 | +10.1 | 11.5 |
| Bill Hankin | One Nation | 1,224 | 4.1 | +4.1 | 5.4 |
| Jenny Stirling | Greens | 1,101 | 3.7 | +0.5 | 3.3 |
| Others | 0.6 | ||||
| Family First | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 520 | 1.7 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Redist |
| Andrew Cripps | Liberal National | 14,354 | 57.1 | 53.4 |
| Jesse Trecco-Alexander | Labor | 10,804 | 42.9 | 46.6 |
| Exhausted | 4,731 | 15.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Hinchinbrook have been divided into three areas: central, north and south. Each area aligns with one of the three local government areas in the seat. A majority of ordinary votes were cast in the south.
The LNP won solid majorities of the two-party-preferred vote in the two less-populated parts of the seat: 59.6% in the centre and 65.6% in the north. Labor polled 52% in the populous south.
Katter’s Australian Party polled over 27% in the north, 22% in the centre and 9% in the south. The Palmer United Party polled 14% in the south and around 6% in the other two areas.
| Voter group | KAP prim % | PUP prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 9.0 | 14.2 | 48.0 | 11,796 | 44.8 |
| Central | 21.9 | 6.0 | 59.6 | 5,332 | 20.2 |
| North | 27.4 | 6.6 | 65.6 | 1,464 | 5.6 |
| Other votes | 10.6 | 12.3 | 56.3 | 7,763 | 29.5 |
Election results in Hinchinbrook at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Katter’s Australian Party primary votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.
Day 1 prediction – LNP retain
KAP candidate for Hinchinbrook is Nick Dametto.
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/kap-announces-candidate-for-hinchinbrook/news-story/5d19c74e1c034c27422a5466af472b06
Could go any way though if ON beat KAP and then get KAP preferences to get into the top two this seat could become interesting
Most likely result is LNP retain assuming ALP actively preference. ON will likely come in 2nd but would have to finish clearly in first place (ie significantly ahead of the LNP) to take this because the ALP preferences will handicap them.
Having said that, this is probably one of the best prospects of an ON gain from the LNP. The others would be Lockyer, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Burnett, Hervey Bay, Gympie, Nanango and Callide. None are more than possibilities in my book needing a sensationally strong primary result and / or a decision by the ALP not to actively promote their HTV card.
PEterjk23’s comment about the ALP “Not actively promoting their HTV is interesting. HTV were devised to reduce the amount of informal voting. ALP always suffered more from Informal voting than alternative parties.
INformal voting is a mixture of ignorance and disengagement.
At last Federal election Informal voting ranged from 1.99% in Kooyong (liberal) to 11.77 Lindsay (ALP)..
Voters intending to vote for ALP and actually voting informally could be the difference between Government and Opposition in this election. ALP needs to place emphasis on following HTV Cards.
For the last few Queensland elections Major Parties have been arguing for Just Vote 1 but any vote like this in 2017 is informal.
A high informal vote will benefit LNP ( and probably LNP in marginal seats on outer fringes of city.
Informal voting is low in Inner Suburbs rising as one moves to outer suburbs and then dropping in older settled areas rising in outer suburbs dropping in provincial areas and rising in far West and North. This is complicated by rising informality with increased number of candidates. Highest informal vote in Queensland Federal Election Divisions were as follows
2007 Leichardt 5.06%
2010Rankin 7.49%
2013 Forde 7.27% 2017
2016 Longman 8.53% (source of info p5 AEC Electoral Pocketbook 2017)
Dome of this informal voting is deliberate, some morainic, and some accidental.
All voters in this election need to remember to put a number in every square without duplicating numbers or leaving blanks.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
A fascinating seat….calling a PHON gone but it’s a tight one.
Make that gain.
I have this as One Nation gain, but maybe Labor preferences save the LNP here.
Do we have word on whether or not Labor have preferenced the LNP over the KAP?
This is the most interesting seat of those still in doubt.
ALP preferencing KAP > LNP > PHON here. The question is, will there be enough Green preferences to put ALP ahead of KAP? On the flip side, P Raffles (NQ party) is preferencing KAP…
If Labor can finish third it will be by a hair’s breadth, and then I’d expect an LNP retain. Otherwise, KAP snowball to victory.
KAP will definitely be ok because there is an independent who is from the NQ party and they are very similar to KAP and such I would expect all of there preferences to flow to KAP and such KAP will be fine in second place.
Can someone explain to me why PHON are not in the 2PP count despite receiving more first preferences the KAP candidate? Can’t work this one out on ABC website. Thanks!
@Pop Dawg
It’s a tight race between KAP and Labor as to who drops out of the race third last, if it’s KAP then it’s a ONP v LNP count, if it’s Labor than KAP wins. The nature of this particular race though makes it seem fairly apparent that KAP gets to the final count and wins.
When the Greens drop out first presumably enough preferences flow to the ALP to keep them about neck and neck with KAP, however the next candidate to drop out is an independent from the unregistered North Queensland Party. Presumably a significant number of the indies preferences would go to KAP keeping them above Labor at the third last count where Labor drops out and their preferences ensure that KAP remains above, or allows them to get above the ON vote to make it to the final TPP vote where KAP will benefit from ON preferences to win.