KAP vs LNP 4.9%
Incumbent MP
Shane Knuth (KAP), member for Dalrymple since 2009. Previously Member for Charters Towers 2004-2009.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Hill covers parts of far north Queensland south of Cairns, including a coastal area and a large inland area. The seat covers Innisfail, Atherton and Tully.
Redistribution
Hill is a new seat, taking in parts of three former seats. The largest proportion of the seat comes from the inland electorate of Dalrymple, which covered those parts of Hill to the west of dividing range. The north-eastern corner of the seat, including Innisfail, were previously included in Mulgrave, with the south-east previously included in Hinchinbrook. Katter’s Australian Party held Dalrymple by a 15.1% margin against the LNP. It’s estimated that KAP holds the new seat by 4.9%.
History
The seat of Hill has primarily replaced the seat of Dalrymple. That seat was created at the 2009 election, largely replacing the former seats of Tablelands and Charters Towers.
Charters Towers was created most recently in 1992. Rob Mitchell held the seat for the National Party from 1992 until 2001, when the ALP’s Christine Scott won the seat.
Scott held the seat for one term, before losing to National candidate Shane Knuth in 2004. Knuth was re-elected in 2006 and joined the newly-merged Liberal National Party in 2008.
Tablelands had been restored in 1986, and was held from 1986 to 1998 by Tom Gilmore Jr, of the National Party.
In 1998, Gilmore was defeated by One Nation’s Shaun Nelson. Nelson left One Nation in 1999, and as an independent he was defeated in 2001 by Rosa Lee Long, the new One Nation candidate.
Lee Long held Tablelands for One Nation at the 2004 and 2006 elections.
When Charters Towers and Tablelands were abolished in 2009, Lee Long and Knuth both ran for Dalyrmple, and Knuth won the seat, with a 5.2% margin.
In October 2011, Shane Knuth resigned from the Liberal National Party to join Katter’s Australian Party.
Knuth was re-elected as a KAP candidate at the 2012 and 2015 elections.
Candidates
- Diana O’Brien (Labor)
- Mario Quagliata (Liberal National)
- Johanna Kloot (Greens)
- Chester Tuxford (Independent)
- Shane Knuth (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Stewart Worth (Independent)
Assessment
Hill is a difficult seat to predict. The sitting KAP MP definitely has a chance, particularly if he can increase his party’s vote at the eastern end of the seat where KAP either did not contest at all, or ran a low-profile campaign.
It’s worth noting that the switch to compulsory preferences may have a big impact. In a three-way contest, the distribution of the third-placed candidate’s preferences will likely decide the result. If Knuth can get in the top two, he’ll have an advantage since he is likely to gain a stronger flow of preferences.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Shane Knuth | Katter’s Australian Party | 11,127 | 41.6 | -12.1 | 25.8 |
| Liz Schmidt | Liberal National | 8,004 | 29.9 | +0.8 | 35.6 |
| Leanne Kettleton | Labor | 6,489 | 24.3 | +13.2 | 27.8 |
| Valerie Weier | Greens | 1,131 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 4.6 |
| Palmer United Party | 4.6 | ||||
| Others | 0.8 | ||||
| One Nation | 0.7 | ||||
| Informal | 459 | 1.7 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | |
| Shane Knuth | Katter’s Australian Party | 15,987 | 65.1 | -0.1 | 54.9 |
| Liz Schmidt | Liberal National | 8,571 | 34.9 | +0.1 | 45.1 |
| Exhausted | 2,193 | 8.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Hill have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the city of Innisfail have been grouped together, with the remainder split into north-east, south-east and west. There is only a small population in the north-east.
The Liberal National Party topped the primary vote, ranging from 30% in the west to 44.6% in the south-east.
The Labor vote ranged from just 18% in the south-east to just over 40% in the north-east.
The Katter’s Australian Party vote was less than 7% in Innisfail, and 43.5% in the west. KAP did not stand in the seat previously covering the north-east.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | KAP prim % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 30.3 | 20.1 | 43.5 | 9,261 | 28.4 |
| Innisfail | 38.8 | 39.2 | 6.9 | 5,380 | 16.5 |
| South-East | 44.6 | 18.4 | 24.7 | 4,355 | 13.4 |
| North-East | 42.5 | 40.7 | 0.0 | 1,404 | 4.3 |
| Other votes | 34.2 | 30.6 | 24.2 | 12,155 | 37.3 |
Election results in Hill at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between Liberal National primary votes, Labor primary votes and Katter’s Australian Party primary votes.
I reckon that Shane Knuth will be fine because he is strong in the south of the electorate and KAP have never run a candidate in the north, so they will rediscover voters. Additionally, there will not be a One Nation candidate and if KAP beat Labor on 1st preferences and the LNP is below 45% then KAP will win easily.
Most likely a KAP retain 54-46
Day 1 prediction – KAP retain 52-48. One of the few seats where PHON are not preferencing the sitting member last.
According to Courier Mail this morning KAP has done a deal with Ashby-Hanson Shane Knuth and Robbie Katter should be ashamed of themselves. The only deal should do with Ashby –Hanson is to put them last or second last. I withdrew my offer to help John Hill KAP candidate in Condamine over this decision which smacks of self-interest over community interest. I urge all voters to ignore the KAP How to Vote and Preference Greens and One Nation Last. Shane has been a good local member and has fought hard for his electorate but supporting those that supported the sale of Kidman is contrary to KAP Core Values and principles and shows how far the party has strayed from those principles.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
Stewart Worth is a very outspoken independent who has good connections on the coast as well as the tablelands. He could very well be the one to trouble Knuth.
Hervey bay candidates listed here instead of hill.
KAP retain.
KAP retain