LNP 7.6%
Incumbent MP
Tony Perrett, since 2015.
Geography
Central Queensland. Gympie covers the Gympie urban area, other eastern parts of Gympie LGA and some northwestern parts of the Noosa council area. Apart from Gympie itself, the seat’s major centres are Tin Can Bay, Rainbow Beach, Cooran and Pomona.
Redistribution
Gympie shifted north-west, losing the remaining parts of the Noosa council area to the seat of Noosa, including Pomona, Kin Kin and Cooran. Gympie’s northern and western boundaries expanded to take in parts of Maryborough and Callide, including Gunalda, Widgee, Bells Bridge, Sexton, Lower Wonga and Bauple.
History
The seat of Gympie was first created in 1873. The seat was abolished in 1950, and restored in 1960. Barring two terms in the early 2000s, the seat has always been won by the Country/National party since its restoration in 1960.
Max Hodges won the seat for the Country Party in 1960. He held the seat until 1979.
Len Stephan won the seat for the National Country Party in 1979. He held the seat until his retirement in 2001.
Upon Stephan’s retirement in 2001, his seat was lost to One Nation’s Elisa Roberts.
Roberts left One Nation in early 2002. She won a second term in 2004, but lost the seat in 2006 to the National Party’s David Gibson. Gibson won a second term in 2009, and a third term in 2012.
Gibson retired in 2015, and was succeeded by the Liberal National Party’s Tony Perrett.
Candidates
- Chelle Dobson (One Nation)
- Tracey Mcwilliam (Labor)
- Roxanne Kennedy-Perriman (Greens)
- Tony Perrett (Liberal National)
- Donna Reardon (Independent)
Assessment
Gympie is a reasonably safe LNP seat on paper, although it is a strong area for One Nation.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tony Perrett | Liberal National | 12,366 | 41.3 | -11.7 | 41.2 |
| Stephen Meredith | Labor | 6,971 | 23.3 | +11.0 | 23.1 |
| Shane Paulger | Katter’s Australian Party | 4,804 | 16.0 | -5.8 | 14.0 |
| Mitchell Frost | Palmer United Party | 3,384 | 11.3 | +11.3 | 12.3 |
| Shena Macdonald | Greens | 2,414 | 8.1 | -0.4 | 6.2 |
| Others | 2.4 | ||||
| One Nation | 0.8 | ||||
| Informal | 673 | 2.2 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tony Perrett | Liberal National | 13,833 | 57.1 | -10.2 | 57.6 |
| Stephen Meredith | Labor | 10,394 | 42.9 | +10.2 | 42.4 |
| Exhausted | 5,712 | 19.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Gympie have been divided into three areas. Polling places in the Gympie urban area were grouped together, with the remaining booths split into north and south.
The Liberal National primary vote ranged from 38% in Gympie and the north to 45% in the south.
Labor’s primary vote ranged from 17% in the south to 25% in Gympie.
Katter’s Australian Party polled under 12% in the north and over 17% in Gympie and the south.
The Palmer United Party vote was clustered around 12-14% in all three areas.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | KAP prim % | PUP prim % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Gympie | 38.4 | 25.1 | 17.1 | 12.5 | 8,026 | 26.8 |
| North | 38.3 | 23.8 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 7,271 | 24.3 |
| South | 45.4 | 17.2 | 17.1 | 12.3 | 3,795 | 12.7 |
| Other votes | 43.7 | 23.1 | 12.2 | 11.1 | 10,864 | 36.3 |
Election results in Gympie at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Liberal National primary votes, Labor primary votes, Katter’s Australian Party primary votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.
Gympie would be fertile ground for PHON and or KAP. Not sure on how they would take to Pauline’s support for John Howard’s gun legislation though. After all they call it the gun toting capital of Australia. But with KAP looking likely to run here and compulsory preferential voting it might depend on who KAP get to run. It will be one I’ll be watching on election night.
This will come down to Labor preferences. If KAP doesn’t run, then PHON will be in with a strong chance, likely taking votes from Labor and the LNP.
If KAP run here, you would expect a One Nation win, as the preference deal would put them in the top two with a low 40% vote, and then stray labor or LNP preferences would deliver the seat to One Nation.
I don’t understand that mindset. You think there are a lot of voters that would vote LNP in straight LNP vs PHON, but given the chance to vote KAP above them both are more likely to go PHON over LNP?
I don’t think people, especially not 3rd party voters, follow HTV cards that strictly. The difference in the 2PP vote if KAP ran and excluded in 3rd would be negligible.
If KAP runs it will hurt One Nation, not help them.
20% almost exhausted here
Reachtel polling as per Brisbane Times
ONP 30.4%
LNP 28.7%
Of the 11.9% who were undecided:
ONP 16.7%
LNP 11.5%
Favorability ratings:
Hanson 44.3%
Nicholls 19.3%
http://amp.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/polling-shows-strong-one-nation-support-in-ex-deputy-premier-s-seat-20171109-p4ywx6
So Gympie becomes a One Nation gain with the max that they can get is 46% of first preference votes. Which on preferences would likely see Gympie become a Safe One Nation seat?
It’s 16.7% of the 11.9% undecided.
That’s 2% of the electorate, if the poll is to be believed.
So, 32%.
One Nation pick up but only a whisker in it.
LNP retain thanks to Labor preferences.
One Nation (sic) would need about 45% first preference votes .. highly unlikely
Depends on preference leakage. If Labor can fluke a Top 2 spot then it becomes a lot more easier for One Nation too.
Still most likely result is as Queensland Observer said, an LNP retain on Labor preferences.