Gladstone – QLD 2017

ALP 25.3%

Incumbent MP
Glenn Butcher, since 2015.

Geography
Central Queensland. Gladstone covers the Gladstone urban area and surrounding rural areas in the Gladstone local government area.

Redistribution
Gladstone lost its southern hinterland to Callide. This area covers Calliope, Taragoola, Diglum, Boynedale and Wooderson.

History

The seat of Gladstone has existed since the 1992 election. The seat was held by the ALP for one term but was then held by an independent from 1995 until 2015.

Neil Bennett won Gladstone for the ALP in 1992. Bennett defeated independent candidate Liz Cunningham, who ran in opposition to the downgrading of Gladstone Hospital.

Cunningham won on a second attempt in 1995. She supported a minority Coalition government from 1996 to 1998. She lost the balance of power when a second hung parliament was elected in 1998.

Cunningham was re-elected in 2001, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2012. Cunningham retired in 2015, and Labor’s Glenn Butcher won the seat.

Candidates

Assessment
Gladstone is a safe Labor seat.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Glenn Butcher Labor 16,512 52.4 +23.2 52.9
Craig Butler Independent 8,981 28.5 -20.5 27.8
Michael Duggan Liberal National 4,784 15.2 +4.3 15.3
Craig Tomsett Greens 1,221 3.9 +1.8 4.0
Informal 583 1.8

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes %
Glenn Butcher Labor 17,152 61.9
Craig Butler Independent 10,561 38.1
Exhausted 3,785 12.0

Booth breakdown

Booths in Gladstone have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the Gladstone urban area were split into Gladstone Central and Gladstone South, with the rural hinterland split into east and west.

Labor topped the vote, with a primary vote ranging from 37% in the west to 56.6% in southern Gladstone.

The vote for independent candidate Craig Butler ranged from 26% in Gladstone South to 45% in the rural west. Butler outpolled Labor in the rural west.

The LNP vote ranged from around 13% in the Gladstone urban area to 17.5% in the rural east.

Voter group ALP prim % IND prim % LNP prim % Total votes % of votes
Gladstone South 56.6 26.2 13.3 7,453 26.7
Gladstone Central 55.1 27.1 13.6 5,215 18.7
East 49.5 28.7 17.5 4,794 17.2
West 37.3 44.9 14.1 830 3.0
Other votes 51.9 27.4 16.8 9,660 34.6

Election results in Gladstone at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-candidate-preferred (Labor vs independent) votes, Labor primary votes, independent primary votes and Liberal National primary votes.

22 COMMENTS

  3. If One Nation run in Gladstone, it’ll be the first time ever (I guess Liz Cunningham scared them off in 1998). There can’t be too many other seats in Qld to have never had an ON candidate, especially outside Brisbane.

  4. Gladstone registered a strong lower house vote for One Nation at the federal election. Labor will hold it but I’d still be looking over my shoulder if a One Nation candidate emerges.

  5. If ON don’t run here, whoever is running their campaign should be sacked on the spot. They would almost certainly finish ahead of the LNP and put on a strong challenge with preferences. I doubt they would actually win it, but much stranger things have happened.

  6. Feel the Bern, PHON has a great candidate announced here- Amy Lohse. Very energetic and will do well, watch out labor.

  9. Peterjk: Double that. The Nat / LNP vote got so completely vacuumed up by Cunningham that she might as well have been the official Nat, and the actual party-endorsed one was a small distraction. When she resigned, the LNP still only got 15%. Butler didn’t win, but 28% is still a lot of personal vote passed on from one indie to another.

    There’s now a whole generation of people in this area who don’t even remember considering a vote for the LNP. One Nation aren’t chasing votes from them here (unlike any other seat in this part of Qld), and the withered remnants of what used to be their voting base are the true rusted-on types. The 28% who voted for Butler should be up for grabs, but the 15% LNP won’t be. So to win, ON need to take about 10% straight off Labor’s vote, from a Labor MP who’ll probably get a sophomore swing to him. Could be 45% ALP / 35% ON / 15% LNP / 5% others. It’s possible, but ON need (a) the LNP to put them second on HTV cards and (b) LNP voters to actually follow those cards. And that’s their best-case scenario.

    I’m gonna call this a Labor retain, same way seats like Bundaberg and Rockhampton were in 1998. Close but no cigar for ON.

  10. The LNP’s candidate is a 20 year old Uni student, so it seems they’re doing everything possible to run dead here.

  11. Labor are generally worried about this seat, talk of internal polling showing One Nation at an almost 40 percent primary.

  14. @ Mick Liz Cunningham often said One Nation was the party she most aligned with p;olicy wise. There’s a lot of sympathy for One Nation type policies amongst these sorts of Labor voters.

  15. One Nation could also gain votes here because they have a young female candidate, which is in stark contrast to all the other candidates.

  16. Perhaps something like this;

    ONP – 39%
    ALP – 39%
    LNP – 17%
    GRN – 4%

    With One Nation winning on LNP preferences

  19. Liz Cunningham was a conservative who won a labor seat this will not be repeated….and onp will not win

  20. Agree with Mick, whilst I think PHON will come second and get a primary vote in the low 20s, I still have Labor winning on primaries (somewhere in the mid 50s).

    The LNP have a shocking candidate here and will likely poll in the teens.

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