ALP 5.3%
Incumbent MP
Mark Furner, since 2015.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Ferny Grove covers northern parts of the City of Brisbane and southern parts of Moreton Bay LGA, on the northwestern fringe of Brisbane. The seat covers the suburbs of Ferny Grove, Ferny Hills, Arana Hills, Enoggera, Upper Kedron and parts of Keperra, Gaythorne and Alderley.
Redistribution
Ferny Grove was pulled further into the metro Brisbane area, losing Samford Village, Highvale, Draper, Mount Nebo, Wights Mountain, Mount Glorious, Cedar Creek and Closeburn to Pine Rivers. Ferny Grove gained Enoggera and part of Alderley from Ashgrove and swapped some territory with Everton. These changes increased the Labor margin from 0.8% to 5.3%.
History
Ferny Grove has existed since 1992, and has been won by Labor at every election except 2012.
It was first won in 1992 by Glen Milliner, who had held the neighbouring seat of Everton since 1977. He became a minister in the Goss government in 1989. He continued to serve as a minister until the government lost power in 1996, and he retired from Parliament in 1998.
Ferny Grove was won in 1998 by Geoff Wilson. Wilson held Ferny Grove for five terms, and served as a minister from 2004 to 2012.
In 2012, Wilson was defeated by LNP candidate Dale Shuttleworth. Shuttleworth held the seat for one term, losing in 2015 to Labor’s Mark Furner.
Candidates
- Elizabeth World (Greens)
- Nick Elston (Liberal National)
- Mark Furner (Labor)
- Lisa Foo (Independent)
Assessment
Ferny Grove is a marginal Labor seat, and could be in play. The redistribution has strengthened Labor’s position, and makes the seat much less critical than in recent elections, but it could still be vulnerable if there is a swing to the LNP.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dale Shuttleworth | Liberal National | 13,214 | 44.6 | -9.8 | 42.0 |
| Mark Furner | Labor | 11,253 | 38.0 | +6.6 | 42.6 |
| Michael Berkman | Greens | 3,589 | 12.1 | -2.1 | 11.4 |
| Mark Taverner | Palmer United Party | 993 | 3.4 | +3.4 | 2.1 |
| Di Gittins | Independent | 588 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1.3 |
| Others | 0.6 | ||||
| Informal | 459 | 1.5 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Mark Furner | Labor | 14,445 | 50.8 | +10.3 | 55.3 |
| Dale Shuttleworth | Liberal National | 13,979 | 49.2 | -10.3 | 44.7 |
| Exhausted | 1,213 | 4.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Ferny Grove have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 54.5% in the west to 58% in the centre.
The Greens vote ranged from 10.7% in the east to 13.3% in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 12.0 | 54.5 | 9,133 | 28.6 |
| Central | 13.3 | 58.0 | 7,945 | 24.9 |
| East | 10.7 | 55.6 | 4,594 | 14.4 |
| Other votes | 9.9 | 51.0 | 10,239 | 32.1 |
Election results in Ferny Grove at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
It will be interesting to see if this estimated margin is inflated due to the 2015 Ashgrove campaign.
I think this is one of the better chances for an LNP gain than ones on lower margins. Very visible candidate.
Newman had a 10% swing against him in Ashgrove, which is large by normal standards but not by 2015 election standards. Effects like the sophomore surge and him being a “star” candidate still helped him.
https://www.echo.net.au/2017/11/labors-nose-front-qld-poll/
Surprisingly, this poll has Mark Furner easily retaining Ferny Grove. I thought the LNP would be nudging closer to victory here.
The redistribution has helped the sitting MP.
Just to clarify, in my original post I meant the Ashgrove voters shifting into this inflating the LNP primary vote. As noted Ashgrove didn’t swing as hard as other seats so might be more prone to vote Labor this time. So I suspect the new Ferny Grove is stronger Labor than the margin says.
That said, the LNP candidate is relatively high profile and well backed by volunteers. Very visible. One of their better ones in that regard.
Furner was always a likable and approachable politician who ideologically was in the moderate part of ALP. I doubt if he is a threat to our liberty in the way that the extremists in ALP Left and Green’s are.
HE was selected by ALP to negotiate with DLP over preferences in 2010 and 2013. What he promised he delivered. HE can be trusted which is a significant compliment for me to say about any ALP politician.
He has been out spent and out campaigned in Ferny Grove from the drive through that I have made.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
It’s worth noting that 54-46 is still a swing to the LNP, albeit a small one.
I think Labor might be hoping for a bit better than that in Brisbane, to make up for possible losses elsewhere in the state.
This poll is quite surprising. The sitting member has been completely invisible (except for the last couple of weeks) while LNP candidate has been highly visible for almost a year, with some people thinking he is the sitting member!
This should swing much greater than Cooper. I don’t think the margin is inflated at all.
*underestimated I mean
Labor retain – thanks redistribution team.
ALP retain
Labor retain thanks to reasons I outlined in an earlier post.