Cook – QLD 2017

ALP 6.7%

Incumbent MP
Billy Gordon (IND), since 2015.

Geography
Far North Queensland. Cook covers all of Cape York and extends to the northern fringe of Cairns. It includes the towns of Port Douglas, Mossman and Cooktown, as well as all of Cape York and the Torres Strait Islands.

Redistribution
Cook gained a small area from the neighbouring seats of Barron River and Dalrymple, but these changes did not shift any voters between electorates.

History
A seat by the name of Cook has existed since 1876, except for one term in the 1950s. The seat was held by the ALP for most of the twentieth century.

The seat was first won by the ALP in 1915, when Henry Ryan won the seat. The Country Party’s James Kenny won the seat in 1929 and held it until 1935. The ALP’s Harold Collins won the seat in 1935. He held it until Cook was abolished at the 1950 election. He moved to the seat of Tablelands, which he held until 1957.

Cook was restored at the 1953 election, when it was won by the ALP’s Bunny Adair. He left the ALP to join the anti-communist Queensland Labor Partyin 1957. He then became an independent in 1963, and held the seat until 1969.

The ALP’s Bill Wood held the seat from 1969 to 1972, followed by Edwin Wallis-Smith, also from the ALP, from 1972 to 1974.

The Country Party’s Eric Deeral won the seat in 1974 and lost it in 1977.

Bob Scott won the seat back for the ALP in 1977 and held it until 1989. Steve Bredhauer held the seat from 1989 to 2004, serving as Minister for Transport from 1998 to 2004. Bredhauer was succeeded in 2004 by his electorate officer Jason O’Brien.

Jason O’Brien was re-elected in 2006 and 2009. In 2012, O’Brien was defeated by LNP candidate David Kempton.

Kempton lost in 2015 to Labor candidate Billy Gordon. After he was elected, accusations surfaced against Gordon about previous criminal offences committed in the 1980s, as well as accusations of domestic violence. These offences had not been disclosed to his party, and Gordon was expelled from the Labor caucus over the issue. Gordon has sat on the crossbench as an independent for the remainder of his term.

Candidates

Assessment
Cook could go any number of ways. It is certainly possible Gordon could retain his seat. In normal circumstances you’d expect an incumbent Labor MP to hold on to the seat, but it is possible that Gordon and the Labor candidate could split that vote and allow the Liberal National candidate to win.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Billy Gordon Labor 10,119 40.4 +8.0
David Kempton Liberal National 8,424 33.6 -3.9
Lee Marriott Katter’s Australian Party 3,134 12.5 -9.8
Jason Booth Palmer United Party 1,678 6.7 +6.7
Daryl Desjardin Greens 1,353 5.4 -0.1
Michaelangelo Newie Independent 332 1.3 +1.3
Informal 497 1.9

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Billy Gordon Labor 12,527 56.8 +10.2
David Kempton Liberal National 9,540 43.2 -10.2
Exhausted 2,973 11.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Cook have been divided into three areas. Polling places in Port Douglas have been grouped together, and the remaining booths have been split into north and south.

There is a wide variation in the two-party-preferred vote across the seat. Labor won over 70% in the north, and barely won 51% in Port Douglas. The LNP won 53.3% in the south.

Katter’s Australian Party came third, with a vote of 8-9% in the north and Port Douglas, and 23.4% in the south.

 

Voter group KAP prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North 8.2 70.3 6,088 24.3
South 23.4 46.7 4,506 18.0
Port Douglas 9.3 51.1 3,474 13.9
Other votes 11.5 54.6 10,972 43.8

Election results in Cook at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Katter’s Australian Party primary votes.

16 COMMENTS

  1. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon held on here. This seat has quite a large indigenous population which could help him. Unlike most other rural and regional seats in Qld I don’t expect ON to go particularly well, citing my previous point.
    Gordon may be strangled in terms of preferences but then again would Labor prefer an LNP MP or a sometimes sympathetic cross bencher.
    My guess would be Labor – Gordon 2CP with Labor getting up.

  2. Is Gordon even running? Conceivably this is an electorate where a sitting independent can build up a personal vote. Nonetheless, he’s unlikely to overtake either party.

  3. The LNP candidate is a local mayor, how she performs outside her own council area will determine this. I suspect being a female will also help considering Gordon’s DV and child support issues.

  7. Billy Gordon has now announced he will not re-contest. HIs name should come down off list of candidates.

  8. I belive it will be very close in this 5 horse race. Greens will get around 5% of the vote. But LNP LAB ONE & KAP will fight it out. It would not surprise me if KAP gets up by a nose.

  9. LNP, PHON, and KAP would be cannibalising each others primary votes though. ALP will make the runoff and are likely favoured to win on preference leakage against any of the 3.

  10. I think your overestimating the KAP and ONP vote.
    It will probably be something like this;

    ALP – 37%
    LNP – 30%
    KAP – 13%
    ONP – 12%
    GRN – 7%

    With labor wining 53-47

  11. Of all the rural seats in QLD this is probably the most immune to ONP and to a lesser extent KAP, that being said they should have a vote in the vicinity of 10% each.
    Without Gordon running this should be a fairly easy hold for Labor.

    Although if the LNP vote is low enough ONP or KAP could benefit from each other’s preferences to jump the LNP into second forcing a tight runoff.

  12. Sportsbet odds for Cook
    ALP $1.10
    KAP $6
    LNP $8.5
    One $10
    Gre $51

    Would have my money on Winx then the ALP in this one.

  13. A closer call than some might think (I’ve seen internal polling from Labor that says this isn’t as in bag as some might think) This will be a preference count nightmare but I’m leaning to Labor gain.

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