LNP 17.1%
Incumbent MP
Pat Weir, since 2015.
Geography
Southern Queensland. Condamine covers rural areas to the west of Toowoomba, covering parts of Toowoomba and Dalby local government areas. The seat covers Dalby, Oakey, Pittsworth, Clifton and some outer parts of Toowoomba.
Redistribution
Condamine lost Dalby to Warrego, and gained Coombungee and Hampton from Nanango. These changes increased the LNP margin from 16.3% to 17.1%.
History
The seat of Condamine was created newly at the 2009 election, taking parts of the abolished seats of Darling Downs and Cunningham. The seat of Condamine had previously existed as a seat from 1950 to 1992, and for most of that time was held by the Country Party/National Party.
The district of Cunningham existed continuously from 1888 to 2009, and was won by the Country/National Party at every election from 1920 onwards.
Tony Elliott held Cunningham for the National Party from 1974 to 2001. He served as a minister in the Bjelke-Petersen government from 1980 to 1983, and again served as an opposition frontbencher in the early 1990s.
Elliott retired in 2001, and was succeeded by fellow National Stuart Copeland. Copeland won re-election in 2004 and 2006.
The seat of Darling Downs was created in 2001, with the same name as an earlier seat that had been abolished in 1888.
In 2001, the seat was won by independent candidate Ray Hopper, who joined the National Party later the same year.
Hopper joined the opposition frontbench in 2004, and won a second and third term as Member for Darling Downs.
Both Hopper and Copeland joined the newly-merged Liberal National Party in 2008, and when their seats were abolished in the 2008 redistribution, Hopper won LNP preselection for Condamine.
Hopper and Copeland both ran for Condamine in 2009, Hopper as the LNP candidate and Copeland as an independent. Hopper won the seat with 61.6% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, with Copeland coming second. Copeland managed 25% of the primary vote.
Ray Hopper was easily re-elected in 2012, winning 58% of the primary vote and over 70% of the two-candidate-preferred vote. In November 2012, he resigned from the LNP and joined Katter’s Australian Party and became the KAP state parliamentary leader shortly afterwards.
Hopper decided to run for the seat of Nanango at the 2015 election, but was unsuccessful. The LNP’s Pat Weir won Condamine.
Candidates
- Brendon Huybregts (Labor)
- Chris Turnbull (Greens)
- Frank Ashman (One Nation)
- Pat Weir (Liberal National)
- John Hill (Katter’s Australian Party)
Assessment
Labor is no threat to the LNP in Condamine, but the seat is a strong area for One Nation, who outpolled Labor in the area at the 2016 Senate election. If One Nation is doing well, they could pose a threat here.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Pat Weir | Liberal National | 17,028 | 51.2 | -7.1 | 51.5 |
| Brendon Huybregts | Labor | 7,271 | 21.9 | +7.7 | 20.6 |
| Ben Hopper | Katter’s Australian Party | 5,059 | 15.2 | -6.1 | 15.7 |
| Alexandra Todd | Family First | 1,455 | 4.4 | +4.4 | 3.3 |
| Pamela Fay Weekes | Greens | 1,306 | 3.9 | -0.1 | 3.7 |
| Shane White | Independent | 1,150 | 3.5 | +1.3 | 2.2 |
| Palmer United Party | 2.3 | ||||
| Others | 0.7 | ||||
| Informal | 710 | 2.1 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Pat Weir | Liberal National | 18,837 | 66.3 | -3.8 | 67.1 |
| Brendon Huybregts | Labor | 9,584 | 33.7 | +3.8 | 32.9 |
| Exhausted | 4,848 | 14.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Condamine have been divided into four areas. Polling places on the outskirts of Toowoomba were grouped together, and the remainder of the seat was split into central, north and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 64.4% in the centre to 71% in the south.
Katter’s Australian Party came third, with a vote ranging from 15.3% on the outskirts of Toowoomba to 18% in the centre.
| Voter group | KAP prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 18.0 | 64.4 | 8,080 | 27.8 |
| Toowoomba Outskirts | 15.3 | 65.6 | 5,953 | 20.5 |
| North | 15.7 | 69.8 | 3,238 | 11.1 |
| South | 16.4 | 70.9 | 2,153 | 7.4 |
| Other votes | 13.7 | 67.9 | 9,665 | 33.2 |
Election results in Condamine at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Katter’s Australian Party primary votes.
Katter’s Australian party has just announced a candidate here. They may very well create an upset here as Queenslanders look for alternatives to both the majors and One Nation. Pat Weir seems to have all his campaing including his office around Dalby which wont be included under the new boundaries………. https://www.ausparty.org.au/news/media-releases/view/86
With the re-distribution this seat looks likely to be a KAP/LNP seat on 2PP.
Ray Hoppers son Ben was never going to work but with blue ribbon booths in the Dalby districts being removed from Pat Weir, this makes this battle a very tight tussle between Kap and LNP.
Media has Kap everywhere with Bob Katter visiting there last week and already we are starting to see the ground swell.
With the western part of Toowoomba being ALP their 2nd preference will most likely go to KAP …. with no hope of any leak to PHON (if they decide to stand which is unlikely) This is a real tussle. One wonders if there has been a deal done to maximize minor party representation in what looks like a hung parliament or minority government most likely.
There is a deal not to stand against current katter mps but there are ONP and KAP in Callide, Whitsundays, the Townsville seats. So deal doesn’t seem broad.
Queensland Observor
1) Where do you get the information that “THere is deal” THe Ashby -Hanson Party have announced taht ey will bot stand against sitting KAP members but I have seen no evidence that anyone has done a deal. A deal requires that sufficient trust exists to sit down and talk. NO one trusts the AShby _Hanson Party sufficiently to talk to them.
I agree that the KAP candidate in CONdamine has a good chance of knocking off the LNP.
THe Candidate John HIll and Bob Katter were all over the electorate earlier in the week .
JOhn is a business man and a farmer and this should go down well in this electotate.
A local resident of Pittsworth will appreciate the lack of government services that have resulted from electing LNP members.
Pat Weir the local Liberlal MP has been campaigning on Electricity Prices but the LNP believe in selling off all public assets. Note he did not stand up to Newman Sell -off. Pat Weir was noyt in Parliament hwne this occurred but he stood at lasdst election supporting Newman . Weir has found the time to condemn Palaszczuk but can not find tome to condemn NEWman. The ALP have a poor record on Asset Sales but LNP believe in their blood that ELectricity should be sold off. Give them half a chance they would sell the hospitals and if they thought they had a snowball’s chance in hell the schools would b e in line for privatisation.
I have spoken to John Hill and he is totally opposed to Asset Sales..
THis will go down well with an electorate that supports a role for GOoernment in the economy.
Well whatever the situation the battle is on and it is going to be between the LNP and the KAP….. Media and push pull polling have had Peter Weir running to head office asking for support after this weeks onslaught by Katters campaign team…. John Hill seems to be getting the edge
Andrew, have a read of the newspapers, a lot of people don’t trust Labor and LNP anymore.. your constant degrading comments on PHON are getting very boring and I will say it again Steve Dickson is our leader at a state level and he saw the light by leaving the LNP.
And who will it be when Steve Dickson loses Buderim @ Shaun? Not having a go, I’m actually asking….Jim Savage maybe? Steve Dickson will not win Buderim, it’s demographic is not One Nation. I guess he wanted to stay where he was known but the party brand still matters.
Feel the BErn, It does not matter whether DIckson loses or not jhe is in a party that is more centralised than the aLP was before the Faceless Men. Ashby and Hanson rule with a rod of iron. THE structure of AShby-Hanson Party is designed to ensure that ordinary members are kept in their place. THat place is not having a say in what the policy is , who the candidates are or who will make money out of the candidates> IT is worth reading the TJ Ryan FOundation monologue “Phoenix,Pauline Hanson and Queensland POLitics” by Roger SCott. PRofessor SCott’s paper deals with AShby-Hanson’s problem with “managing relationships between leader, her immediate coterie of advisers and ONe Nation candidates” P7 Scott also points out that “Parties built around a single charismatic leader can become unstable if they do not succeed in attracting continuing support at three levels, a core organizational cadre, a wide range of candidates in multiple constituencies and a sustained body of electoral support.THe AShby Hanson party is unstable because it has no base it is a top down organization and is heavier at top than down below. THIs is similar to Lang Labor, Original ONe nation ,, QLd Party, KAP and ALA. the Greens ho i detest have a broader base than top, as didf Family FIrst and the original DLP. THe resurrected DLP had the same problem of being top heavy with no significant branch structure. I am not sure where AUstralian DEmocrats fitted in.
The whole of PRofessor Scott’s monologue can be downloaded at:
http://tjryanfoundation.org.au/cms/page.asp?ID=4037
IT is a good read. THere are significant parts of it that I totally disagree with but with respect to Hanson he is spot on.
Andrew and Feel the Bern. A couple of key points- First in relation to “IF” Steve is beaten to which all the media is reporting that One Nation is having some serious gains due to inept Labor and LNP policies – Sam Cox is our Deputy leader as has also been mentioned in the media and on PHON website. Jim Savage is vital to PHON as a senior statesman and both have a great chance of winning their seats.
Andrew, now in dealing with your statement – Proff Scott’s book may be a good read but once again it is an opinion piece, nothing more and nothing less. I can assure you out of the 3 Major parties in QLD, PHON is now regarded as a main player (16% primary in state and even more in some outlets) We have a huge say in direction and our base is solid. Candidates get a huge say and I think if you look at their pages tackle alot of issues that the other parties wish they could speak out on such as Energy, Policing, Immigration, Domestic Violence, Child Neglect, suicide, education platforms as in abolishing safe schools etc.
I can say this with authority because I am a current candidate in the next state election. I am also ex-defence and a very proud member of PHON
Shaun
You had a go at me about not reading the newspapers. Can you provide any evidence that you have read PRofessor Scott’s monologue or do your opinions about it exist before reading.
YEs there is a lot of opinion in document ( a lot that I totally disagree with especially about the Bjelke-Petersen era and Rona Joyner) but I have read the document from cover to cover before opening my mouth and most of it is factual.
I am not necessarily a fan of Professor Scott in fact the last time I spoke to him he stated “you must hate me” after I told him I had been a employee of an Education Department in a Commercial Business Unit which was shut down under his watch. I told him that I thought the blame for this decision was the Goss government and specifically a then Faceless underling called Rudd.
Scott cites Pauline Hanson quoting from an e-mail by Oldfield in which OLdfield states that Paulinbe Hanson “didn’t have a clue from the start and as we all know didn’t care about AUstralia or any person other than herself” (see Pauline Hanson “Untamed and Unashamed” p135 cited by Scott p20)
This is the problem that you face when you claim academics write “opinion pieces… nothing more nothing less” It is finally nice to know you are a current candidate. A few posts back I think I challenged you to reveal who you were. I am now assuming you are Shaun Byrne the Ashby-Hanson candidate for Aspley.
Have a look at the political history of Aspley and see what happened to a previous member who upset true conservatives. The consequences were significant. Please do us a favour and take the true leaders of the Ashby-Hanson discordance and parade them around Aspley. As soon as half of the duo are seen true believers desert and as soon as both members of the DIscordance open their mouths non committed Labor and COalition voters look elsewhere than AShby-Hanson. Maybe a rally at Aspley Special school will show the parents of Autistic children the benefits of the Ashby-Hanson Discordance Education policy. Maybe the DIscordance could stand outside the Aspley Pentecostal Church (Assemblies Of God) and recite the policy that appeared on ONe Nation website about traditional marriage which surprisingly has disappeared from 2017 policy handbook) or maybe the Discordance could stand outside Our Lady and St Dympna’s Church, Aspley. 479 Robinson Road, Aspley 4034 and tell the congregation what Pauline Hanson thinks about Abortion . Newspapers should take care not to report this or they will end up like Toowoomba Chronicle barred from all contact with the Ashby-Hanson DIscordance. Hanson Supports Abortion. which I understand was the main reason for the defeat of Bonny Barry Look at CHildren by CHoice website if you doubt this.
THanks for finally revealing your identity. We can now all evaluate your comments knowing that they are being made by candidate for Ashby-Hanson DIscordance.
You should remember the statement by ALP leader Jack Duggan “I am not too proud to be directed” You certainly will need to agree with this if you are not to become an addition to the long list of Pauline Hanson discarded candidates.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
KAP ewebsite shows candidate as John Hill. Tally room mentions this in a post but not in list of candidates standing.
I apologise to Queensland Observer. It is now apparent from today’s Courier Mail that KAP has done a deal with the Ashby-Hanson Party. As someone who has been associated with KAP from very close to its inception I would never have thought that the current sitting members would have tolerated a deal with those that supported the sale of Kidman farms. It just shows how far KAP has strayed from its Core Values and Principles’ and why nearly every KAP candidate from previous elections is no longer a supporter of the party.
I had volunteered to work the Pre-poll and polling day for John Hill in Condamine. I withdrew this offer today unless he puts out a HTV that puts Greens and One Nation last. This is virtually impossible with Queensland Electoral Act requirements. I have handed out HTV for every election in which KAP has stood candidates but not this time. I will play no part in putting PH and her supporters into QLd Parliament. “THey shall not pass”
ANdrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
I disagree Andrew, both One Nation and KAP have done the deal because it will ensure that in some seats, either party wins which therefore delivers the balance of power to KAP and One Nation, it will help KAP in seats like Whitsunday or perhaps Thuringowa, where the KAP vote is higher than One Nation. It was a deal that was done to ensure the balance of power is held by the Centre-Right not the Greens
Visited Pittsworth and surrounds. Clifton and surrounds and worked on two pre polls. Also managed to go to a few town meetings. The obvious candidate everywhere is KAP and strange that no one even turned up at the One Nation rally at Clifton last night. I have seen a few One Nation signs etc but looking like a two horse race here.
Prediction this will be a fight between LNP’s Pat Weir and KAP’s John hill. Its been a great fight for many weeks and be one to watch. Keen to get out there again as its an upset in the air. https://www.facebook.com/9NewsDarlingDowns/
Frank Ashman – Ashby-Hanson candidate for COndamine hels aPUblioc meeting last night. HOW many attended Frank?
Did Sound recordists out number the voters?
Were there more people putting out yellow High Vis Shirts on highway advocating the construction of New Acland mine than at your meeting?
How does this fit with the Media’s inconsistent indication that hundreds are flocking to see PH.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
KAP Should Gain Condamine. Especially Given that the candidate is everywhere, and the fact that they will get a lot of preferences from Labor and One Nation.
Probably Something Like:
LNP – 35%
KAP – 25%
ALP – 18%
ONP – 18%
GRN – 3%
TPP – KAP 52 LNP 48
WA Party yes i have been out there and I think your right. In fact KAP gets better by the day and has done a good job in merging with all the protest groups out there.
I spent two days on Pre-Poll and every vote bar one went to Kap
This is a very hard seat to predict but yes I’m leaning to Katter, unless there is a higher One Nation vote out there than we think and they finish above KAP? I think LNP have lost it though.
Hmm I still have the LNP holding onto this one, but admit i haven’t heard much from the on the ground campaign out there.
I just can’t see Katter being in front of One Nation. If they did get in front I could see a Katter win, but they won’t and LNP retains.