Clayfield – QLD 2017

LNP 6.6%

Incumbent MP
Tim Nicholls, since 2006.

Geography
Brisbane. Clayfield covers inner suburbs of the City of Brisbane on the northern side of the Brisbane River, specifically Albion, Hamilton, Ascot, Clayfield, Wooloowin, Hendra, Windsor, Gordon Park and Pinkenba. The seat also covers Brisbane Airport and ports and industrial areas. The eastern half of the seat has practically no residential population.

Redistribution
Clayfield lost the remainder of Kedron to Stafford, lost the remainder of Wavell Heights and Nundah to Nudgee, gained Windsor from Brisbane Central and gained Gordon Park and the remainder of Lutwyche from Stafford. These changes cut the LNP margin from 7.2% to 6.6%.

History
The seat of Clayfield was first created in 1950, was abolished in 1977, and was restored in 1992. Apart from two terms from 2001 to 2006, the seat has always been held by the Liberal Party.

The seat was won in 1992 by Santo Santoro. He had first been elected in 1989, winning the seat of Merthyr off Liberal-turned-National Don Lane. Merthyr was abolished in 1992, and Santoro was elected in the restored seat of Clayfield.

Santoro served as deputy leader of the Liberal Party from 1992 to 1995, and served as Minister for Training and Industrial Relations from 1996 to 1998.

In 2001, Santoro lost Clayfield in a shock result to the ALP’s Liddy Clark.

Santoro was appointed to a vacancy in the Senate in 2002. He served as Minister for Ageing from 2006 to 2007, but in March 2007 resigned from the ministry and the Senate after he was caught up in a share scandal.

Clark is a former actor in Australian television shows. She was re-elected as Member for Clayfield and briefly served as a minister in the Beattie government before resigning over a scandal involving the bringing of alcohol into a dry indigenous community in North Queensland.

In 2006, Clark was defeated by Brisbane city councillor Tim Nicholls. Nicholls was soon challenging Liberal leader Bruce Flegg for the leadership of the small party, and through 2007 the party was deadlocked due to a 4-4 tie between Flegg’s supporters and Nicholls’ supporters. The issue was resolved with the election of Mark McArdle as Liberal leader.

Nicholls has been re-elected in Clayfield in 2009, 2012 and 2015. Nicholls took on the Treasury portfolio after the merger of the Liberal and National parties in 2008, serving as Treasurer after the party won power in 2012. He was elected leader of the Liberal National Party in 2016.

Candidates

• Tim Nicholls (Liberal National)
• Claire Ogden (Greens)
• Philip Anthony (Labor)

Assessment
On paper, Clayfield is a marginal LNP seat, although Nicholls is likely under threat only if the LNP does particularly badly.

2015 election result

2015 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown

Booths in Clayfield have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.

The LNP won a large majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, polling 63.3% in the centre and 63.9% in the east. Labor polled 57% in the west.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 8.5% in the east to 16.7% in the west.

Election results in Clayfield at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.