ALP 6.5%
Incumbent MP
Don Brown, since 2015.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Capalaba covers eastern parts of Greater Brisbane in Redland local council area, specifically the suburbs of Capalaba, Alexandra Hills and parts of Birkdale and Thorneside.
Redistribution
Capalaba gained a small area from Cleveland on the seat’s north-eastern boundary. These changes cut the Labor margin from 7.1% to 6.5%.
History
The seat of Capalaba was created in 1992. Labor held the seat continuously from 1992 to 2012.
The seat was first won by Jim Elder, who had won the seat of Manly in 1989 and moved to Capalaba after his original seat was abolished.
Elder joined the Goss ministry in 1992 and served in it until the government was defeated in 1996. He became Deputy Opposition Leader in 1996 and became Deputy Premier in the Beattie government in 1998.
Elder resigned from the ministry and from the ALP in 2000 after adverse findings against him from the Shepherdson Inquiry into branch-stacking. He served out the remainder of his term as an independent until retiring in 2001.
At the 2001 election, the ALP’s Michael Choi was elected in Capalaba. He was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.
In 2012, Choi was defeated by LNP candidate Steve Davies. Davies held the seat for one term, losing in 2015 to Labor’s Don Brown.
Candidates
- Paul Taylor (One Nation)
- Don Brown (Labor)
- Cameron Leafe (Liberal National)
- Jason Lavender (Independent)
- Joshua Sanderson (Greens)
Assessment
Capalaba will likely remain in Labor hands.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Don Brown | Labor | 14,046 | 47.9 | +9.6 | 47.0 |
| Steve Davies | Liberal National | 11,602 | 39.6 | -6.9 | 40.5 |
| Erin Payne | Greens | 3,649 | 12.5 | +4.9 | 12.5 |
| Informal | 782 | 2.6 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Don Brown | Labor | 16,160 | 57.1 | +10.8 | 56.5 |
| Steve Davies | Liberal National | 12,163 | 42.9 | -10.8 | 43.5 |
| Exhausted | 974 | 3.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Capalaba have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 54% in the north to 59% in the south-east.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 11.7% in the south-west to 14.5% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 14.5 | 54.0 | 7,597 | 23.7 |
| South-East | 13.3 | 59.0 | 7,470 | 23.3 |
| South-West | 11.7 | 58.0 | 5,420 | 16.9 |
| Other votes | 11.2 | 55.0 | 11,524 | 36.0 |
Election results in Capalaba at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
Courier Mail put this in its list of possible One Nation gains! Seems unlucky kelt time but worth watching.
@ Qld Observer, yes I heard One Nation polling at 32 percent there but I don’t see how. Doesn’t at all appear a One Nation area.
The seats to watch as potential ON gains will be marginal ALP seats where ON has a shot of finishing ahead of the LNP and accessing their preferences. This seat meets the first criteria but ON has next to no chance of outpolling the LNP. Even if they somehow did there would be too much leakage here. If they get this they would be on track for 30+ seats.
Very tight, another which could be counted for days after, I’m leaning to Labor retain in a very tight contest thanks to a decent flow of PHOn preferences but I’d be nervous here if I was Labor.
LNP gain
No Palmer candidate last election so One Nation vote will all come off the major parties. As a result I think the primary gap between Labor and the LNP will widen. I can’t see One Nation preferences flowing strongly enough to Labor.
Labor retain despite a lower primary.