LNP 4.7%
Incumbent MP
Mark McArdle, since 2004.
Geography
Sunshine Coast. Caloundra covers Golden Beach, Pelican Waters, Meridan Plains and parts of Little Mountain, Caloundra and Caloundra West.
Redistribution
Caloundra lost Currumundi to Kawana and Mooloolah Valley to Glass House, while gaining a small area from Glass House near Landsborough. Caloundra also lost the northern end of Bribie island to Pumicestone. These changes increased the LNP margin from 3.8% to 4.7%.
History
The seat of Caloundra has existed since the 1992 election, and has always been held by the Liberal Party, now the LNP.
Liberal leader Joan Sheldon first won the seat in 1992. She had been first elected at the 1990 Landsborough by-election. Landsborough had been held by former Nationals Premier Mike Ahern.
Sheldon became Liberal leader in 1991, and moved to Caloundra at the 1992 election. She went on to serve as Deputy Premier and Treasurer in the Borbidge coalition government from 1996 to 1998, and stepped down as Liberal leader in 1998.
Sheldon retired in 2004, and was succeeded by Mark McArdle. McArdle became leader of the Liberal Party in 2007 as a compromise after the party’s 8-member caucus was deadlocked between Bruce Flegg and Tim Nicholls.
McArdle led the Liberal Party until the merger with the National Party in 2008, and served as Deputy Leader of the Liberal National Party until the 2009 election.
McArdle was re-elected with an increased majority in 2012, and then held on despite a large swing in 2015.
Candidates
- Rod Jones (One Nation)
- Jason Hunt (Labor)
- Marcus Finch (Greens)
- Mark McArdle (Liberal National)
Assessment
Caloundra is a marginal LNP seat.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Mark McArdle | Liberal National | 13,021 | 43.8 | -20.4 | 44.9 |
| Jason Hunt | Labor | 8,595 | 28.9 | +6.5 | 28.7 |
| Phillip Collins | Palmer United Party | 3,071 | 10.3 | +10.3 | 10.3 |
| Fiona Anderson | Greens | 3,026 | 10.2 | -3.2 | 9.7 |
| Barry Jones | Independent | 1,991 | 6.7 | +6.7 | 6.3 |
| Informal | 684 | 2.3 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Mark McArdle | Liberal National | 14,223 | 53.8 | -17.4 | 54.7 |
| Jason Hunt | Labor | 12,202 | 46.2 | +17.4 | 45.3 |
| Exhausted | 3,279 | 11.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Caloundra have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two of the three areas, with 51.9% in the east and 59.4% in the centre. Labor polled 52.8% in the west.
The Palmer United Party vote ranged from 7.8% in the centre to 15% in the west. The Greens vote ranged from 6% in the centre to 13% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | PUP prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 13.4 | 15.3 | 47.2 | 4,980 | 19.8 |
| East | 12.2 | 9.2 | 51.9 | 4,780 | 19.0 |
| Central | 6.0 | 7.8 | 59.4 | 4,340 | 17.3 |
| Other votes | 8.4 | 9.7 | 57.5 | 11,017 | 43.9 |
Election results in Caloundra at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Greens primary votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.
Jason Hunt ran a great campaign last election mixed with the anti-Newman sentiment. He’d probably have been able to steal it if McArdle had retired. Unfortunately I see a swing back to the LNP this time.
I’ve read LNP are concerned about this seat if One Nation makes good on its threat to direct preferences against the sitting member.
LNP still would be the favorites to retain the seat though.
I think LNP are more than just worried about this seat. Never seen McCardle make so many funding announcements.
LNP retain after an almighty scare from One Nation.