ALP 1.4%
Incumbent MP
Dale Last (LNP), since 2015.
Geography
North Queensland. Burdekin stretches from the southern outskirts of Townsville down the Queensland coast to Bowen. The seat then extends further south to the rural hinterland covering Moranbah and Nebo. The main towns in the seat are Ayr and Bowen. The seat covers all of Burdekin LGA and parts of Isaac, Mackay, Townsville and Whitsunday LGAs.
Redistribution
Burdekin shifted south, losing areas on the outskirts of Townsville, including Stuart, Wulguru and Idalia, to Mundingburra, and gaining rural areas at the southern end of the electorate from Whitsunday, Mirani, Gregory and Dalrymple (mostly from Mirani). These new areas are contained in the Isaac and Whitsunday council areas. These changes flipped the seat from 2.9% LNP to 1.4% Labor.
History
The seat of Burdekin has existed since 1950. For most of that time the seat has been held by the Country/National Party, although it was held by One Nation and then Labor for two terms from 1998 to 2004.
The seat was won by independent Arthur Coburn in 1950. Coburn held the seat until 1969, when he was succeeded by the Country Party’s Val Bird.
Bird held the seat until his retirement in 1983, when he was replaced by Mark Stoneman. Stoneman held the seat until his retirement in 1998.
At the 1998 election, the seat was won by One Nation’s Jeff Knuth. Knuth, like most One Nation MPs, soon quit the party. He ended up joining the City Country Alliance and ran for them in 2001.
In 2001 Knuth lost to the ALP’s Steve Rodgers. Rodgers held the seat for one term, before losing to Rosemary Menkens of the National Party in 2004.
Rosemary Menkens retained the seat in 2006 and 2009. The 2009 redistribution made Burdekin a notional Labor seat, but Menkens gained a sufficient swing to retain the seat, this time for the Liberal National Party.
In 2012, Rosemary Menkens increased her margin. Menkens retired in 2015, and was succeeded by LNP candidate Dale Last.
Candidates
- Dale Last (Liberal National)
- Sam Cox (One Nation)
- Mathew Bing (Greens)
- Mike Brunker (Labor)
Assessment
Burdekin is a marginal Labor seat on paper. It’s also a very good area for One Nation.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dale Last | Liberal National | 10,510 | 37.3 | -10.7 | 36.2 |
| Angela Zyla | Labor | 7,522 | 26.7 | +6.1 | 28.9 |
| Steven Isles | Katter’s Australian Party | 3,396 | 12.1 | -14.2 | 13.5 |
| Jacinta Warland | Palmer United Party | 2,330 | 8.3 | +8.3 | 8.1 |
| BJ Davison | Independent | 2,306 | 8.2 | +8.2 | 6.8 |
| Belinda Johnson | One Nation | 1,305 | 4.6 | +4.6 | 3.4 |
| Lindy Collins | Greens | 807 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 2.7 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 567 | 2.0 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dale Last | Liberal National | 12,201 | 52.9 | -9.6 | 48.6 |
| Angela Zyla | Labor | 10,872 | 47.1 | +9.6 | 51.4 |
| Exhausted | 5,103 | 18.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Burdekin have been divided into four areas. Polling places have been divided along local government lines. Three areas are named after the local government area, with the Isaacs area named ‘south’.
The Liberal National primary vote ranged from 25.5% in the south to 41.5% in Burdekin. The LNP topped the primary vote in three out of four areas.
The Labor primary vote ranged from 20.8% in Burdekin to 47.6% in the south, and Labor topped the primary vote in the south.
Katter’s Australian Party came third in all three areas, ranging from 8% in Whitsunday to just over 15% in Burdekin and Townsville.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | KAP prim % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Burdekin | 41.5 | 20.8 | 15.3 | 7,263 | 25.9 |
| South | 25.5 | 47.6 | 12.3 | 4,246 | 15.2 |
| Whitsunday | 32.7 | 27.4 | 8.0 | 4,080 | 14.6 |
| Townsville | 34.1 | 28.3 | 15.2 | 1,681 | 6.0 |
| Other votes | 38.4 | 27.7 | 14.6 | 10,741 | 38.3 |
Election results in Burdekin at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Katter’s Australian Party primary votes.
Antony Green has a VERY different post-redistribution margin here – 1.4% to Labor. Mostly thanks to the Moranbah prepoll centre which got transferred from Dalrymple – that went ALP 63.5, KAP 19.8, LNP 14.4. No love for Campbell Newman there.
Yep, I’ve seen his analysis and it sounds right. I will probably use his figures before this guide is finished. It’s still a work in progress.
Even though Sam Cox held Thuringowa as an LNP MP, he is arguably stronger here thanks to his family being from the area and a major cane grower. Couple that with the electricity and Wilmer issues I expect this is right up there with Lockyer, Scenic Rim, Maryborough and possibly Thuringowa as the most likely for PHON.
I would add Hill and Hinchinbrook but Katter should complicate those seats.
I agree with your assessment of best seats for One Nation @ Qld Observer. I also give PHON a chance in Bundy. If Labor is to win here it will definitely have to be from PHON preferences. Forget was the One Nation how to vote says, there will be plenty of Labor leaning types who vote One Nation here who’d never be seen dead putting the LNP above Labor.
This seat was mentioned along with Mansfield the LNP could be burnt if One Nation stays true to its word and direct preferences against the sitting member. Sounds like this seat will be Labor vs LNP contest with One Nation coming third and being the king maker where the preferences flow.
I’m not sure that Labor will finish in the top 2. With KAp having 12% and Palmer having 8% which will all go to ONP. That gives them 20% straight of the back plus then the 10-15% they take up the ALP and LNP. So I think that ONP will actually finish first and then might just win on a leakage of Labor preferences.
Agree with Young Nation. Maybe Labor can get in the final two, but I am positive One Nation will be in top two after the primary vote.
A Galaxy Poll has an LNP/ALP top 2 with LNP slightly ahead. PHON are too far behind on first preferences, and if WA is anything to go by it’s only downhill from here for PHON.
Too close to call, could be one of the handful of seats I expect we will be waiting on results in late into next week and perhaps longer. I’m leaning very slightly to LNP based on Labor being the incumbent government and them not doing overly well up north but it’s almost a coin toss.
I have Labor winning this, but also agree it’ll be such a close contest. I think as long as Labor finishes top two, they’ll win this.
LNP retain
I still would not by shocked by Sam Cox taking this for One Nation. I’m also not convinced that the mining towns will be as strongly Labor this election due to Adani.
SoI will go with LNP retain, but this is a real three way lottery.
Adani and sitting lnp mp make this a difficult alp win