ALP 0.5%
Incumbent MP
Leanne Donaldson, since 2015.
Geography
Central Queensland. The seat of Bundaberg covers the central suburbs of the Bundaberg urban area, including Avoca, Svensson Heights, Thabeban, Kensington, Avenell Heights and Kalkie.
Redistribution
Bundaberg expanded slightly to the east and west. These changes cut the Labor margin from 1.6% to 0.5%.
History
The seat of Bundaberg has existed continuously since 1888. Labor held the seat continuously from 1896 until 2006.
Clem Campbell won the seat for the ALP in 1983. He held the seat until his retirement in 1998, when he was succeeded by Nita Cunningham.
Cunningham was re-elected in 2001 and 2004. In 2006 she resigned due to health issues. A by-election was not held, as Cunningham’s resignation prompted Peter Beattie to call an early election.
Bundaberg was won in 2006 by the National Party’s Jack Dempsey. Dempsey won re-election in 2009 and 2012.
Dempsey was defeated in 2015 by Labor’s Leanne Donaldson.
Candidates
- Alan Corbett (Independent)
- Richard Smith (Independent)
- Richard Glass (Independent)
- Marianne Buchanan (Greens)
- Leanne Donaldson (Labor)
- David Batt (Liberal National)
- Jane Truscott (One Nation)
Assessment
Bundaberg is a very close seat, and will be hotly contested by both sides. It’s one of the seats which will decide who forms government. It’s also a strong area for One Nation, who polled very well in the area at the 2016 federal election.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jack Dempsey | Liberal National | 11,128 | 41.4 | -11.7 | 41.9 |
| Leanne Donaldson | Labor | 10,654 | 39.7 | +16.0 | 38.4 |
| Robert Brown | Palmer United Party | 3,208 | 11.9 | +12.0 | 12.6 |
| Meg Anderson | Greens | 1,112 | 4.1 | +1.2 | 4.2 |
| Richard Freudenberg | Independent | 746 | 2.8 | +2.8 | 2.4 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 602 | 2.2 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Leanne Donaldson | Labor | 12,783 | 51.6 | +19.8 | 50.5 |
| Jack Dempsey | Liberal National | 11,980 | 48.4 | -19.8 | 49.5 |
| Exhausted | 2,085 | 7.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Bundaberg have been divided into three areas: central, north and west.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.4% in the north to 56.5% in the centre. The LNP won 53.4% of the two-party-preferred vote amongst the special votes.
The Palmer United Party vote ranged from 12.2% in the west to 14.3% in the centre.
| Voter group | PUP prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 14.3 | 56.5 | 6,857 | 22.0 |
| West | 12.2 | 52.7 | 6,785 | 21.7 |
| North | 14.6 | 51.4 | 4,518 | 14.5 |
| Other votes | 11.3 | 46.6 | 13,048 | 41.8 |
Election results in Bundaberg at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.
Despite its long Labor history, Bundaberg was one of the more surprising gains at the last election. Expect a strong One Nation vote here.
Ben, this sentence is out of date: “The sitting MP is the first non-Labor MP for the seat since 1896.”
Agree with David, PHON should get around 20-25% here, but am confident this will revert back to being an LNP seat.
All depends who those One Nation voters preference.
Courier mail did a hatchet job on the sitting alp member….disgusting
LNP gain off strong One Nation prefernce flows. One of the earlier pick ups for the LNP on Election Night I’m predicting. @Mick is right, there’s been a big campaign run against the sitting member, some of it very unfair.
Definitely one of the easier gains for the LNP.
I am going out on a limb here and calling Labor retain. Most published polls shows LNP behind on the primary vote and well they have to be in front.
The greens and three independents will pick up 10-12% of the primary, 75% plus of those preferences will go to Labor further increasing their lead before One Nation preferences come in. Those preferences wont fliw strong enough to the LNP.
Also, I believe polls showing a One Nation primary of 21% here are vastly under what it will be. That means a further drop in the LNP primary and a bigger gap to make up on preferences. In fact it is even possible One Nation cpuld finish top two.
Here comes my predictions for each seat: LNP gain
Seat by seat predictions:
LNP gain
Queensland Observer….. hope you are right
I would not write off Mirani, Maryborough, Keppel or Towoomba nth for Labor either//////