Aspley – QLD 2017

LNP 3.2%

Incumbent MP
Tracy Davis, since 2009.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Aspley covers the northern Brisbane suburbs of Bridgeman Downs, Carseldine, Aspley and parts of Bald Hills, McDowall and Chermside West.

Redistribution
Aspley gained parts of Geebung and Zillmere from Nudgee and lost a small area in the seat’s north-east to Sandgate. These changes cut the LNP margin from 5.2% to 3.2%.


History
The seat of Aspley has existed since 1960. For most of that period the seat was contested between the Liberal Party and the National Party, apart from the period from 2001 to 2009 when it was held by the ALP.

Fred Campbell held the seat for the Liberal Party from 1960 to 1980. He was succeeded in 1980 by Beryce Nelson, who won the seat for the Liberal Party.

In 1983, Nelson lost to the National Party’s candidate, former newsreader Brian Cahill.

After losing the seat, Nelson switched to the National Party, and was elected again as Member for Aspley in 1986. In 1989, Nelson was again defeated, losing to the Liberal Party’s John Goss.

Goss helped the seat throughout the 1990s, twice serving as a shadow minister in National-Liberal coalitions.

In 2001, Goss was defeated by the ALP’s Bonny Barry. Barry won successive terms in 2004 and 2006, and in 2009 was defeated by the Liberal National Party’s Tracy Davis.

Davis was re-elected in 2012 and 2015, and she has served on the LNP’s frontbench since 2010.

Candidates

Assessment
Aspley is a marginal LNP seat.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Tracy Davis Liberal National 14,868 52.4 -13.0 49.3
Gayle Dallaston Labor 10,835 38.2 +14.7 40.0
Noel Clothier Greens 2,663 9.4 +2.0 9.5
Palmer United Party 0.7
Others 0.5
Informal 497 1.7

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Tracy Davis Liberal National 15,276 55.2 -16.6 53.2
Gayle Dallaston Labor 12,412 44.8 +16.6 46.8
Exhausted 678 2.4

Booth breakdown

Booths in Aspley have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.

 

The LNP won over 60% of the two-party-preferred vote in the south-west, while losing to labor in the north and the south-east.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 9% in the south-west to 11% in the north.

Voter group GRN prim % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South-East 10.7 43.8 7,562 25.7
South-West 9.0 60.3 7,487 25.5
North 11.0 40.9 2,241 7.6
Other votes 8.8 55.2 12,112 41.2

Election results in Aspley at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

20 COMMENTS

  4. Shaun will take 5 to 10% directly off Tracy. After that the preferences will flow back at best about 63%, if they are putting sitting MPs last for like 55% or less. That delivers Labor the seat unless their primary vote also drops.

  5. Drove through the electorate today and not much evidence of campaign corflutes. A few Liberal Corflutes. Campaigning evidebnt for LNP and ALP in Bancroft and LNP in Everton Prk, Aspley, FErny Grove . Ashgrove completely clear of COrflutes such a change freom last election., Some evidence of Green and LNP campaigning in Bardon (sorry do not know electorate off top of my head) and Moggil. Evidence of LNP COrflute placement by private inividuals in Bellbowrie (Sugars Rd).

    So far I have seen a complete absence of visible Party Member activity by any party since writs were issued.MY wife saw activity in Redcliffe yesterday and Shaun’s Facebook site showed some activity by him in Aspley on Domestic Violence.

    However ity is clear that the malaise in the general community about the4 two majors has infected their own supporters as well.

  6. LNP and ALP Civil LIberties candidates all think that electors have a right to a e-mail address and phone number. James Hansen , Steve Ross and PHON candidate (my friend Shaun?) want your vote but according to ECQ website declined to give either a phone number or e-mail address. Not a good start for an potential MP.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  7. Andrew, It could have been an ECQ error as well (who knows) But alas my ears are always open and am willing to talk to anyone. Regards my email and number it is on my Public One Nation Facebook page so anyone please go there and contact me, In fact yesterday I had three locals call me and ask for my opinion on the Carseldine Urban Development. I presume the Labor and LNP candidates didnt answer their phones on this issue.

    As always Andrew it is a pleasure talking to you my friend……

  8. ONe nation had a big street stall at Carseldine this morning – Manned in morning but I thinkjumnmanned in afternoon. THEy had A frame up seeking booth workers for election day. BOoth workersa re a perenuial problem for parties with no BRnch structure.

    I haerd today that Australian Conservatives are having a bit of secession problems in Queensland after FF members found that Australian Conservatives is effectively a Company and that members have virtually no rights other than to be directed by South Australia..

    Aust conservatives may be heading the way off the Ashby Hanson Party split to pieces by schismatic deviations from the party lin.

  9. Does anyone know what Steve Ross’s policies are? Seems to have no web presence and hasn’t published an e-mail address.

  10. When I wrote that Australian Conservatives were heading the same way of schismatic One Nation I had no idea that the schism in One Nation would result in a flow of Senator’s from One Nation to Australian Conservatives. Heard whispers that another ON senator is moving from subservience to liberty.

    The Ashby -Hanson Discordance is leaking like a sieve. They hate each other as much as they hate Muslims.

    PH should read about Abbot’s problems with staffers and the consequences. In Coalition (with a relatively stable Party Structure ) the result is a coup. IN One Nation with no party structure the result is resignations/ expulsions depending on who you listen to.

    However the common elements are an overly powerful staffer and a party leader who will not listen to their support base.

  11. I’ve heard from a source I trust that LNP are very worried about this seat because there’s been vocal opposition from LNP voters in electorates like this about putting One Nation up so high on HTV cards. I wonder how much effect this will have?

  12. Andrew, I am personally bewildered by your comments this time. We are working hard and finally giving people an alternative to the way government has been run for years. If I am elected I will work for the people and only for the people. I will not be deterred nor will I wilt.

    I was part of a major hook up with all candidates and senior staff last night and we are one well-oiled STATE team, we all have the same objective and that is to put people before politics. We do not argue, we do not show any hate to each other, we all get along and understand people will try and break us and sorry it will not happen this time. I did not serve my country for 16 years in defence and serve for a couple of years in a public hospital protecting people then to commit political suicide.

    I can inform you now we all are totally behind our leader Pauline Hanson and behind our State Leader Steve Dickson. Please stick to facts and if you want any reassurance of how our party sees each other contact me on the phone and I will outlay how well of a state team we have. You don’t need to quote books, internet stories and like back at me because I am in the inner sanctum and I can tell you we are one team, one family, one nation.

  14. It is hard to believe One Nation can remain a solid team given their track record and the current Federal situation.

    I guess voters need to consider if they are willing to take a chance on an unproven and inexperienced team.

    Shaun, are you able to provide more detail on what you will do if elected?

    Most of what you have said are motherhood statements about not making big dollar promises, listening to people and having our backs.

    What does this mean in a practical sense for us?

  15. Craig, it is a pretty simple logic that I follow and the party, for too long people have been forgotten about and the tired parties have more self-interest than actually doing what they are elected to do and that is govern. As for experience, we have a wide-ranging depth in out party included multiple small business owners, police, ex-defence, medical practitioners and alike so with some of our senior members such as Steve, Sam, Neil and Michael we would be able to bring a good balance of power.

    As for me I am a father of two wonderful children (3 and 5) and still believe our core values are important in today’s society. These range from Family values, loyalty, personal discipline, ethics, honesty, and integrity.

    I would personally bring to the electorate an open door policy and offer such things as a CIR ( Citizen Initiated Referenda ) which means 5% of the elector’s signatures put forward to a referendum would then be obliged to bring it up at the next election.

    Reduction in power statewide by 20% for local business and peoples residents.

    No Asset sales

    Law and order would be maintained to a high level and I would work hard to ensure we had the maximum amount of officers attached to our electorate and they were fully equipped and fully trained, I would also increase their training times as they only need to fire the Glocks etc once a year.

    I would work hard to implement strict new laws on Child abuse and assault. Families are important to me and I do not want any pedophiles living in my electorate.

    I would ensure all our emergency service personnel are safe and any person who assaults them has a mandatory min.

    I would work hard to also ensure our children have options for when they leave school and can get a trade that is funded at 75% the first year, 50% the second year and 25% the third year.

    I have many more things I wish to achieve but I want our area to be safe, honest and people be able to walk around proud of the electorate.

    I have no hidden agendas, I will not accept donations from developers or unions and I will not accept any pay rise in the whole 3-year term. Time for things to get back to normal and our politicians to be held accountable.

  16. LNP retain JUST. Expect an almighty scare to them from Labor on the 2PP. Expect this to be very marginal heading into the election in a few years time.

  17. This one will be really tight. One Nation will split off the a slice of the LNP vote plus this was an area with devent swings to Labor at the federal election.

    I predict a razor thin LNP retain but with no confidence.

  19. This is going to be really interesting; I think the LNP were on track to narrowly win the election prior to COVID-19 and Annastascia’s relatively popular handling of the pandemic response might help seats like Aspley. Labor seem to be putting a lot resources into Aspley a in terms of their election commitments for infrastructure projects which makes you wonder how worried they are. Amanda Cooper has a lot of name recognition in the part of the electorate which overlaps with the Bracken Ridge Council Seat which polled quite well for Labor in the last election. Bart’s social media is good but you never know how many older voters this reaches. One Nation preferencing Bart over Tracy Davis in 2017 probably played a big role in his win last time too so it will be very interesting to see if they run anyone for Aspley. He’s a young, energetic and likeable MP but one wonders whether he’d do better in an electorate with a younger demographic. Cooper was listed as a potential future Minister in a news article this year and comes across as a intelligent, experienced and approachable candidate. If we weren’t in this pandemic I’d say Amanda Cooper for sure.

  20. Louisa, why are you posting in thr 2017 article? There is a 2020 election guide now here. But i mostly agree with your assessment. Covid will help Bart to hold on

Comments are closed.