Stafford – Queensland 2015

ALP 12.00%

Incumbent MP
Anthony Lynham, since 2014.

Geography
Brisbane. Stafford covers the northern Brisbane suburbs of Gordon Park, Stafford, Stafford Heights, Grange and parts of Wilston, Alderley, Lutwyche, Kedron and Chermside.

History
The seat of Stafford was first created in 1972. It was abolished in 1992 before being restored in 2001. The seat was a marginal seat throughout the 1970s and 1980s. It was held by Labor from 2001 to 2012, and again since the 2014 by-election.

The seat was first won in 1972 by William Harvey. He was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Terry Gygar in the 1974 landslide election.

Gygar held the seat at the 1977 and 1980 elections before losing in 1983 to the ALP’s Denis Murphy. Murphy was diagnosed with cancer and died in 1984 without ever speaking in Parliament.

Gygar regained his seat at the 1984 by-election, and held it until 1989.

Rod Welford won the seat for the Labor Party in 1989. When Stafford was abolished in 1992 he moved to the neighbouring seat of Everton. He held Everton until his retirement in 2009. He also served as a minister in the Beattie and Bligh governments from 1998 to 2009.

The ALP’s Terry Sullivan won the newly restored seat of Stafford in 2001. Sullivan had first been elected at the 1991 Nundah by-election. Nundah was abolished in 1992, and Sullivan moved to the new seat of Chermside. This seat was also abolished in 2001, and Sullivan moved to Stafford. He retired in 2006.

Stirling Hinchliffe, also of the ALP, won the seat in 2006, and retained it in 2009.

In 2012, Hinchliffe lost his seat to LNP candidate Chris Davis. Davis was appointed as Assistant Minister for Health in the new LNP government. In May 2014 he was sacked as a minister due to numerous public disagreements with his colleagues. Later that month, he resigned from the Parliament in protest at the direction of the Newman LNP government.

The July 2014 by-election was easily won by Labor candidate Anthony Lynham, benefiting from a 19% swing back to Labor.

Candidates

Assessment
Stafford was a seat that would have been a key Labor-LNP contest in 2015, except for the circumstances of Chris Davis’ resignation and the following by-election. With Labor now holding the seat, the LNP will be focusing on holding on to other seats.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Chris Davis Liberal National 13,423 50.23 +12.35
Stirling Hinchliffe Labor 8,972 33.58 -14.87
Peter Jeremijenko Greens 3,020 11.30 -0.49
Karin Hunter Katter’s Australian 1,307 4.89 +4.89

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Chris Davis Liberal National 14,302 57.06 +14.35
Stirling Hinchliffe Labor 10,763 42.94 -14.35

2014 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Anthony Lynham Labor 12,626 50.6 +17.1
Bob Andersen Liberal National 8,339 33.4 -16.8
Anne Boccabella Greens 2,971 11.9 +0.6
Sally-Anne Vincent Family First 997 4.0 +4.0

2014 by-election two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Anthony Lynham Labor 14,562 62.0 +19.1
Bob Andersen Liberal National 8,925 38.0 -19.1
Polling places in Stafford at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Polling places in Stafford at the 2012 Queensland state election.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Stafford have been split into three parts: central, north and south.

At the 2012 election, the LNP won approximately 50% of the vote in each area, ranging from 49.4% in the centre to 52.7% in the north. The ALP’s vote ranged from 31% in the south to 35.6% in the centre. The Greens came third with a vote ranging from 8.2% in the north to 13.7% in the south. The Greens vote was substantially higher at the southern end of the seat.

In 2014, the ALP and LNP had largely swapped places. The ALP polled highest, with a vote ranging from 48.5% in the south to 52.2% in the north.

The LNP’s by-election vote ranged from 31% in the centre to 33.9% in the south. The Greens vote increased slightly, with a range from 10.2% in the north to 14.6% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

2012 election breakdown

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % GRN prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
Central 49.40 35.56 9.67 55.84 8701 32.56
South 51.79 30.74 13.74 58.97 7164 26.81
North 52.72 33.92 8.23 58.66 3452 12.92
Other votes 48.55 33.83 12.30 55.90 7405 27.71

2014 by-election breakdown

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % GRN prim % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
Central 31.03 51.52 12.67 65.02 8860 35.54
South 33.89 48.53 14.64 61.33 6510 26.11
North 32.56 52.24 10.24 62.95 2881 11.55
Other votes 36.61 50.84 8.98 59.62 6682 26.80
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Stafford at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Stafford at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Stafford at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Stafford at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes at the 2014 Stafford by-election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes at the 2014 Stafford by-election.
Greens primary votes at the 2014 Stafford by-election.
Greens primary votes at the 2014 Stafford by-election.

6 COMMENTS

  3. Ha ha, yes I guess my name is pretty obvious that I didn’t mind the old Rudd. I was more just pointing to the fact that Labor has this seat in the bag. Rudd never lost his seat though….I guess that’s something.

  5. I don’t believe that Dr Lynham wants to be involved in the health portfolio. His passions are education and law & order. Having heard him speak on education not too long after his appointment as the ALPs Education Spokesperson his interest was clear and his grasp of his new portfolio was very, very good.
    If he grasped it so well, that quickly I’d think that keeping him where he is would be sensible.

  6. One opf the rare seats where I expect a swing against Labor. They should comfortably hold though. Bi-election margins are always hard to replicate at the actual poll.

Comments are closed.