Pine Rivers – Queensland 2015

LNP 13.66%

Incumbent MP
Seath Holswich, since 2012.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Pine Rivers covers southern parts of Moreton Bay LGA, including Strathpine, Bray Park, Warner Dayboro and Mt Pleasant, and parts of Lawnton.

History
The seat of Pine Rivers first existed from 1972 to 1992. It was abolished in 1992 and restored in 2009. Ever since 1974 the seat has gone with the party of government.

Pine Rivers was held by the ALP’s Kenneth Leese from 1972 to 1974. The seat was held by Rob Akers from 1974 to 1983, when he lost to National candidate Yvonne Chapman. Chapman held the seat until her defeat in 1989. Chapman went on to serve as Mayor of Pine Rivers Shire from 1994 to 2008.

Margaret Woodgate won Pine Rivers for the ALP in 1989. When the seat was abolished in 1992 she moved to the seat of Kurwongbah. She served as a minister in the Goss government from 1995 to 1996. She retired in 1997.

Carolyn Male won the new seat of Glass House in 2001. She held the seat until 2009, when a redistribution changed the seat into a notional LNP seat. She then moved to the restored seat of Pine Rivers in 2009.

In 2012, Male retired, and Labor candidate Patrick Bulman lost to LNP candidate Seath Holswich.

Candidates

Assessment
Pine Rivers was a marginal Labor seat in 2009, and if there is a reversal of fortunes compared to 2012, Labor could win. On a uniform swing, Labor does not need to win Pine Rivers to win government, but it could be a seat they would be targetting to help them win government.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Seath Holswich Liberal National 14,590 52.93 +13.41
Patrick Bulman Labor 7,556 27.41 -19.95
John Alexander Katter’s Australian 3,091 11.21 +11.21
Di Clark Greens 2,326 8.44 -0.21

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Seath Holswich Liberal National 15,856 63.66 +18.27
Patrick Bulman Labor 9,052 36.34 -18.27
Polling places in Pine Rivers at the 2012 Queensland state election. North in green, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Pine Rivers at the 2012 Queensland state election. North in green, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Pine Rivers has been divided into two parts: north and south.

The LNP won a majority of the primary vote in both areas, with around 52-53% of the vote. On a two-party-preferred basis, the LNP did slightly better in the north (64%) than in the south (62%).

Labor came second with about 26.8% in the north and 29% in the south. Katter’s Australian Party came third, polling more strongly in the north than in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % KAP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
North 53.08 26.83 11.93 64.14 14,152 51.34
South 52.26 29.08 10.59 62.32 6,024 21.86
Other votes 53.20 27.17 10.34 63.84 7,387 26.80
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Pine Rivers at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Pine Rivers at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Pine Rivers at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Pine Rivers at the 2012 Queensland state election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. LNP hold, will swing less than the seats around it like Kallangur and Ferny Grove. Good local MP who has worked the seat hard, plus a low key Labor candidate. The margin will be a lot smaller than the inflated 13% it’s on now though.

  2. Agree 100 percent with PRP. This is a seat Labor will only win when the tide is well and truly with them. I think they’re a few years off that yet.

  4. Labor campaigning in this type of seat suggests polling is saying labor can pick this sort of seat up meaning they could be in he hunt for a majority in a vic 1999 type surprise

Comments are closed.