Mundingburra – Queensland 2015

LNP 10.19%

Incumbent MP
David Crisafulli, since 2012.

Geography
North Queensland. Mundingburra covers southern parts of Townsville, covering the suburbs of Heatley, Cranbrook, Aitkenvale, Mundingburra, Vincent, Gulliver, Douglas, Annandale and parts of Kirwan.

History
The seat of Mundingburra has existed since 1992, and has been won by the ALP at every general election. The ALP’s hold on the seat was broken at the 1996 by-election, when it was won by the Liberal Party.

The seat was first won in 1992 by Ken Davies, who had previously won the seat of Townsville in 1989 before moving to the new seat of Mundingburra. He won re-election in 1995 by only 16 votes.

The result in Mundingburra ended up in court, and a by-election was called in 1996. The by-election was won by Liberal candidate Frank Tanti. This resulted in the ALP government losing its majority and the National-Liberal coalition forming a minority government.

At the 1998 election, Tanti lost the seat to the ALP’s Lindy Nelson-Carr. Nelson-Carr was re-elected in 2001, 2004, 2006 and 2009. She was appointed to the ministry in 2007.

Nelson-Carr retired in 2012, and the LNP’s David Crisafulli won the seat with a 16.8% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Mundingburra has been held by the party of government since its creation in 1992, and was held by reasonably solid margins during the era of the last Labor government. Labor will be hoping to regain the seat if they are to be on track to win back government.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Crisafulli Liberal National 11,069 43.34 +5.54
Mark Harrison Labor 6,569 25.72 -22.68
David Moyle Katter’s Australian 5,875 23.00 +23
Bret Fishley Greens 1,283 5.02 -3.64
Michael Waters Family First 745 2.92 -0.63

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Crisafulli Liberal National 12,924 60.19 +16.78
Mark Harrison Labor 8,547 39.81 -16.78
Polling places in Mundingburra at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in green, South in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Mundingburra at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in green, South in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Mundingburra has been divided into three parts: east, south and west.

The LNP topped the primary vote in all three areas, and also is estimated to have won the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas. The LNP vote was weakest in the east and strongest in the south, which was the only area where the LNP won a majority of the primary vote.

The ALP’s vote was highest at 29.4% in the east and lowest in the south at 22.4%.

Katter’s Australian Party also polled strongly, with a vote ranging from 17.5% in the south to 27.3% in the west. KAP outpolled Labor in the west.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % KAP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
West 38.96 25.87 27.32 57.81 7,682 30.08
East 37.84 29.43 24.25 54.72 6,079 23.80
South 53.13 22.41 17.46 67.23 5,985 23.43
Other votes 44.80 25.06 21.69 61.38 5,795 22.69
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Mundingburra at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Mundingburra at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Mundingburra at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Mundingburra at the 2012 Queensland state election.

13 COMMENTS

  1. Don’t see Labor winning here, not a very impressive Labor candidate and Minister Crisafulli has been one of the standouts for the LNP in his first term.

  4. LNP retain with a 3 or 4% margin. Crisafulli has been a decent minister. If the LNP are losing seats like Mundingburra they’re losing the election. 10%+ swings outside of Brisbane will still be a big ask.

  5. Article in the Australian suggests the LNP is more focused on this seat out of all its Northern seats. It says internal polling on both sides suggest that labor is in position to win Cook, Cairns, Townsville, Thuringowa but the LNP will throw everything at Mundingburra

  6. Labor won’t win Cairns Observer. Unfortunately. You can hold me to that. The others you mentioned are all fair game. Although I saw a poll in October that suggested Labor were behind in Cook.

  7. Galaxy has this on a knife edge. Apparently Galaxy polled a swag of North Queensland seats which have a similar swing right across the region. 12% in SE Queensland hypothetically being uniform would deliver labor 24 seats. If this is knife edge a 10% in the region would give labor 8 seats bring Newman out of majority (giving Gaven to the LNP and Gladstone to labor) and leaving the government up to KAP and Peter Nicklin deciding the government which wouldn’t be good for Newman. Of course this won’t happen because no swing is uniform but if labor gets more momentum like it has in this last week then this election could be closer then we’ve been lead to believe

  9. I know this sounds bad, as I detest News Limited but I get more excited when Labor is in front in a Newspoll which it hasn’t been. Newspoll is asked in a way that favours LNP, so when Labor can lead those polls, it’s time to celebrate. Galaxy is nothing.

  10. Rudd for PM if your saying that Newspoll is biased to the LNP then if the LNP is marginally infront that means labor would be infront. On your theory if labor were in front then it would be a landslide win for labor. Galaxy has been far more reliable in most elections and is quite significant if they are saying that labor will win seats like Cairns and possibly this seat.

  13. If David retains here he has to be a decent chance of being in the mix for deputy, especially as it looks like the LNP will need to reconnect with north QLD. But given polling its a big ask for the LNP to be re-elected here

Comments are closed.