LNP 61.14%
Incumbent MP
Ian Walker, since 2012.
Geography
Brisbane. Mansfield covers southeastern parts of the City of Brisbane and small parts of Redland City. Mansfield covers the suburbs of Mansfield, Wishart, Upper Mount Gravatt and Mackenzie, and parts of Mount Gravatt and Eight Mile Plains.
History
The seat of Mansfield has existed since 1972. Conservative MPs held the seat from 1972 until 1989, and apart from one term the ALP has held it since 1989.
Bill Kaus held the seat from 1972 to 1986. He originally sat as a Liberal, but switched to the National Party in 1983, at the election when the coalition was dissolved and the Nationals decimated the ranks of the Liberal Party in Parliament.
He was succeeded in 1986 by Craig Sherrin, also a National Party MP. Sherrin was defeated in 1989 by ALP candidate Laurel Power.
Power lost in 1995 to Frank Carroll of the Liberal Party. He was defeated in 1998 by Phil Reeves. Reeves was re-elected in 2001, 2004 and 2009, and was promoted to the Bligh government’s ministry after the 2009 election.
In 2012, Labor MP Phil Reeves was defeated by Liberal National candidate Ian Walker. Walker has served as Minister for Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts since 2013.
Candidates
- Jarrod Wirth (Independent)
- Adam Obeid (Labor)
- Ian Walker (Liberal National)
- Nick Jelicic (Greens)
Assessment
Mansfield was held by Labor for the entire length of the last Labor government from 1998 to 2012, but never by a large margin.
If Labor is on track to win government, Mansfield is one of those seats that will need to fall.
2012 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ian Walker | Liberal National | 13,953 | 53.67 | +14.05 |
| Phil Reeves | Labor | 8,416 | 32.37 | -14.91 |
| Craig Sheehan | Greens | 1,592 | 6.12 | -0.65 |
| Ray Smith | Katter’s Australian | 1,135 | 4.37 | +4.37 |
| Carolyn Ferrando | Family First | 696 | 2.68 | -0.78 |
| Jarrod J Wirth | Independent | 206 | 0.79 | +0.79 |
2012 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ian Walker | Liberal National | 14,886 | 61.14 | +15.53 |
| Phil Reeves | Labor | 9,462 | 38.86 | -15.53 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mansfield have been divided into three areas. Most booths in the seat lie in the northwestern corner of the seat, and these booths have been divided into “Central” and “North-East”. The remainder of the booths have been grouped as “South-West”.
The LNP won a majority of the primary vote in all three areas, ranging from 62% in the south-west to 50.2% in the north-east. The ALP’s vote was highest in the north-east. I estimate that the LNP’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 57.7% in the north-east to 71.7% in the south-west.
The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| Central | 54.09 | 33.55 | 60.76 | 11,624 | 44.71 |
| North-East | 50.24 | 35.24 | 57.69 | 5,432 | 20.89 |
| South-West | 62.01 | 21.47 | 71.67 | 1,495 | 5.75 |
| Other votes | 53.85 | 30.63 | 62.14 | 7,447 | 28.64 |
Even though I think Ian Walker will hold on in Mansfield, I think the swing could be closer to 10% and could make the seat very marginal for the LNP. Young, energetic Labor candidate (albeit it a horrible surname) up against a rising star of the LNP makes for an interesting competition. Walker has easily been one of the best Minister’s and performers for the LNP in it’s first term. They’d be mad not to make him a senior Minister post-election.
There is no question Ian Walker has alot of ability, which some suggest he should be given a more senior portfolio as Attorney General as he is wasted in Science and Arts. But there have been rumblings in the Courier Mail a couple of months ago, that LNP wanted to move Walker or Tim Mander to Moggil because they were not sure bets to return at the next election. Walker would be the favorite to return, but PRP is right the swing will come back and he will be on a greatly reduced margin.
Returning independent candidate Jarrod Wirth has a website here
http://www.jarrodwirth.id.au/
refer to recent non…… interview
Ian Walker has obviously gained a good profile. I think this will be a bellwether for this election, really should have been the seat Newman should have contested
I don’t think the LNP will lose the election, thus I think Mansfield is a retain. I agree it is currently a bellweather. In 2018 that might change though. I’m expecting any seats the LNP retain will become much harder to win. It will entrench a LNP votign pattern in those areas that hasn’t existed before.
Queensland Observer, are you under the impression Labor will win 2018 but not win Mansfield? I agree 2018 will be game on.
LNP going hard on material in this seat. Ian Walker would have a big profile as a Brisbane MP in the LNP especially if they lose big in the area. He would be in the mix for deputy too if the Borg is elected leader
Borg leader, not going to happen Tim Nichols has it in the bag.
I am of the opinion the lnp will win around 55 seats, Mansfield will be retained. I believe by a decent margin of around 5 or 6 percent . That may mean if labor wins in 2018 they may not win mansfield
I can’t see the 2PP vote at 54 given the LNP has had a difficult couple of weeks. Id say 52 which would either just give them a small majority or a hung parliament, polling has consistently suggested big swings. This seat is the bellwether and i recon what ever the margin here will mirror the state wide vote.
Nichols is very unpopular and is about to lose a lot of liberal members making a making a party room vote more harder. I wouldn’t say its in the bag for him at all
No Nicholls won’t be leader, Newman will be. RE my comments I’ve iterated several times in Ashgrove. Here’s hoping I’m wrong…..dear god I hope I am. GO KATE.
Labor no chance in this seat….maybe in 3 years sorry boys.
Labor will win Ashgrove Kate Jones is a proven outstanding Candidate (Unusual for the ALP)
we will know by 9pm (8pm Qld time) VALE Tom Uren a fantastic member for Ried They dont make Labor Pollies like him anymore sadly not for the last 35years.
The Chifleys Curtains Urens have long gone No they only have spivs wheeler dealers and oily solicitors Such a pity
Wow, that is quite an unfortunate name for the Labor candidate.
Postal votes have pushed the LNP lead out beyond 51%.
Labor should do well on absentee votes. Mansfield has a similar geography to Chatsworth – i.e. the strongest Labor areas are on the western edge of the electorate – where very strong absentees won a close contest for the ALP in 2009.
But it’s hard to see Labor pulling back a whole percentage point.