Lytton – Queensland 2015

LNP 1.58%

Incumbent MP
Neil Symes, since 2012.

Geography
Eastern Brisbane. Lytton covers the Brisbane suburbs of Wynnum, Manly, Hemmant and Lota, near Moreton Bay on the southern side of the Brisbane River.

History
The seat of Lytton has existed since 1972. In that time it has been held by only two MPs, who both have served as Deputy Premier in Labor governments.

Tom Burns won the seat in 1972. He served as Labor leader following the disastrous 1974 election, and led the party to an improved result in 1977, before stepping down as leader in 1978.

He was elected as Deputy Leader in 1984 and became Deputy Premier when the ALP won power in 1989. He retired as Deputy Premier and Member for Lytton in 1996.

The 1996 Lytton by-election was won by Paul Lucas. Lucas joined the ministry in 2004. In 2007 he became Deputy Premier.

In September 2011 he retired as Deputy Premier while continuing as Attorney-General, and then retired at the 2012 election.

In 2012, Labor candidate Daniel Cheverton lost to LNP candidate Neil Symes after a 13.8% swing.

Candidates
The ALP originally preselected Daniel Cheverton, but he withdrew in December 2014.

Assessment
Lytton was considered to be a safe Labor seat prior to the 2012 election, and is likely to be won back by Labor in 2015.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Neil Symes Liberal National 12,181 43.66 +11.43
Daniel Cheverton Labor 10,961 39.29 -13.20
Daniel Crute Greens 2,256 8.09 +0.96
Jim Vote Katter’s Australian 1,881 6.74 +6.74
Russell McVey Independent 618 2.22 +2.22

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Neil Symes Liberal National 13,101 51.58 +13.79
Daniel Cheverton Labor 12,299 48.42 -13.79
Polling places in Lytton at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in orange, North in blue, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Lytton at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in orange, North in blue, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Lytton have been divided into three parts: east, north and west.

The Liberal National Party topped the primary vote in two areas, and Labor topped the poll in the north.

The LNP vote ranged from 41.3% in the north to 46.2% in the east. The Labor vote ranged from 36.7% in the east to 41.7% in the north.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the west (50.8%) and the east (54.4%). The ALP won 51% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
West 43.21 40.33 50.84 7,499 26.88
East 46.24 36.68 54.36 6,769 24.26
North 41.30 41.67 48.99 6,083 21.81
Other votes 43.72 38.68 51.93 7,546 27.05
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Lytton at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Lytton at the 2012 Queensland state election.

11 COMMENTS

  1. If Labor don’t win this seat back, they won’t win many. Very traditional Labor seat with a poor local member from the LNP at moment. One of the seats the LNP didn’t expect to win in 2012.

  2. Although Symes is a good campaigner, I have to agree with Rudd for PM and say he will lose easily to Daniel Cheverton. He too is a great campaigner on the ground and a future talent Labor will be desperate to have in the Queensland Parliament.

  3. Well said PRP, I def agree Labor see Cheverton as someone they can use to build a strong campaign in 2018. Labor won’t win this election, but winning seats like this is vital because there’s no way the LNP will make it as easy for Labor to claw back ground in 2018 as they have this time. They will probably learn from a big swing against them. If not, they’re gonners in 2018.

  5. Oh dear… Shouldn’t affect their chances here, Labor will easily re-gain this come next year, unless LNP stocks dramatically improve.

  7. Labor should still be ok. One of the better seats for this to happen to Labor. Would have been up the creek without a paddle in a seat with a much larger margin.

  8. Yes labor will take this one. Just put anyone on the ticket. (mule voters don’t care)
    The only the way the LNP might retain is to have someone like Mel Gibson or Kylie Monoque otherwise just leave a blank photo with ALP on it and it will romp in. Fill the name in later

  10. Hey Guys JOAN PEASE is the ALP Candidate here ,Daniel Thingamajig went bye byes in 2012
    But I agree a drovers dog could win this for ALP Another gold star for Annastacia

Comments are closed.