Gympie – Queensland 2015

LNP 17.26% vs KAP

Incumbent MP
David Gibson, since 2006.

Geography
Central Queensland. Gympie covers the Gympie urban area, other eastern parts of Gympie LGA and some northwestern parts of the Noosa council area. Apart from Gympie itself, the seat’s major centres are Tin Can Bay, Rainbow Beach, Cooran and Pomona.

History
The seat of Gympie was first created in 1873. The seat was abolished in 1950, and restored in 1960. Barring two terms in the early 2000s, the seat has always been won by the Country/National party since its restoration in 1960.

Max Hodges won the seat for the Country Party in 1960. He held the seat until 1979.

Len Stephan won the seat for the National Country Party in 1979. He held the seat until his retirement in 2001.

Upon Stephan’s retirement in 2001, his seat was lost to One Nation’s Elisa Roberts.

Roberts left One Nation in early 2002. She won a second term in 2004, but lost the seat in 2006 to the National Party’s David Gibson. Gibson won a second term in 2009, and a third term in 2012.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP David Gibson is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Gympie is a conservative seat, that has mostly been held by the Nationals except for two terms when it was held by a One Nation-turned-independent MP. The seat could well remain an LNP vs KAP race but the LNP should have little trouble holding on.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Gibson Liberal National 15,054 53.03 -7.60
Shane Paulger Katter’s Australian 6,198 21.83 +21.83
Ben Parker Labor 3,475 12.24 -2.41
Shena MacDonald Greens 2,410 8.49 -1.90
Kathy Hawke Family First 917 3.23 +3.23
Santo Ferraro One Nation 335 1.18 +1.18

2012 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Gibson Liberal National 16,194 67.26 -9.95
Shane Paulger Katter’s Australian 7,883 32.74 +32.74
Polling places in Gympie at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in blue, Gympie in yellow, North in red, South in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Gympie at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in blue, Gympie in yellow, North in red, South in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Gympie have been divided into four parts. Polling places in the Gympie urban area have been grouped as “Gympie”. Polling places outside Gympie itself but in the Gympie local government area have been split into “North” and “South”, and those in the Noosa council area have been grouped as “East”.

The Liberal National Party primary vote ranged from 42.3% in the east to 57.3% in the south.

The Katter’s Australian Party primary vote ranged from 18.1% in the east to 25.3% in the north.

Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.1% in the south to 14.7% in the east.

On a two-candidate-preferred basis against KAP, the LNP vote ranged from 64.4% in the east to 68.7% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-candidate-preferred figures by polling place, so two-candidate-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % KAP prim % ALP prim % LNP 2CP % Total % of votes
Gympie 52.13 23.96 11.55 65.26 9,312 32.80
North 53.09 25.34 12.83 64.99 4,396 15.48
South 57.34 22.74 9.06 68.74 3,289 11.59
East 42.32 18.08 14.70 64.42 3,164 11.15
Other votes 56.40 18.63 13.03 71.11 8,228 28.98
Estimated two-candidate-preferred votes in Gympie at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-candidate-preferred votes in Gympie at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Gympie at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Gympie at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-candidate-preferred votes in the Gympie urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-candidate-preferred votes in the Gympie urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in the Gympie urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in the Gympie urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. KAP has endorsed Shane Paulger a local Dairy farmer for the seat. This is another seat where ALP & Green Preferences elected an LNP member.

    Even FF preferences helped defeat Mr Paulger.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  2. This is complete nonsense.

    Firstly, the LNP won on primary votes, so nobody’s preferences elected the LNP.

    Secondly, more Greens preferences flowed to KAP than to the LNP (a majority flowed to Labor), and then a majority of Labor preferences flowed to KAP over LNP.

  3. Ben

    You are correct.

    I took my figures from p 102 of David Kerslake Qld ELectoral CImmissioner’s Report to Parliament “2012 Evaluation Report & Statistical Returns from ECQ”. dated 21 November 2012 in which .

    This report shows a Distribution of Preferences which in fact were never actually distributed.

    I made the mistake of thinking that the bottom line in the return was the actual return when in fact the distribution did not in fact occur. If you want a copy of the document you may be able to get from ECQ. I can scan page to you if you want but it is very unlikely to be readable due to a spinal margin of about 8 mm.

    I will amend my comment to read that “This is another seat where ALP & Green Preferences would have elected an LNP member ..

    Even FF preferences would have helped defeat Mr Paulger”

    My apologies for misleading your customer base..

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  5. Heard Bob Katter was active in Gympie today. Watch him on Channel 7 or WIN. He released a policy document on Bushfires and Rural Fire fighters.

    Nice to hear someone talking policy rather than mouthing inanities.

    Andrew JAckson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

Comments are closed.