Burleigh – Queensland 2015

LNP 11.05%

Incumbent MP
Michael Hart, since 2012.

Geography
Gold Coast. Burleigh covers the southern Gold Coast suburbs of Palm Beach, Burleigh Heads, Burleigh Waters, Varsity Lakes and Miami.

History
The seat of Burleigh was created for the 1992 election. It was held by the National Party until 2001, and then by Labor from 2001 to 2012.

Judy Gamin won the seat for the National Party in 1992. She had first been elected to the seat of South Coast at a 1988 by-election following the retirement of former National Party minister Russ Hinze.

South Coast was abolished in 1992 and replaced by Burleigh, and Gamin won the new seat. She was re-elected in 1995 and 1998 before losing to the ALP’s Christine Smith at the landslide 2001 election.

Christine Smith was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009. In 2012, Smith was defeated by LNP candidate Michael Hart.

Candidates

Assessment
Burleigh is a traditional marginal seat, and is the kind of seat that will help decide who forms government.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michael Hart Liberal National 14,222 51.18 +12.3
Christine Smith Labor 8,572 30.85 -15.96
Jane Power Greens 2,345 8.44 +0.79
Dean Fisher Katter’s Australian 1,976 7.11 +7.11
Jeremy Fredericks Family First 671 2.41 +0.5

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michael Hart Liberal National 15,324 61.05 +15.95
Christine Smith Labor 9,778 38.95 -15.95
Polling places in Burleigh at the 2012 Queensland state election. Burleigh-Miami in blue, Palm Beach in green, Varsity in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Burleigh at the 2012 Queensland state election. Burleigh-Miami in blue, Palm Beach in green, Varsity in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Burleigh have been divided into three parts based on key suburbs: Palm Beach in the south, Varsity in the west, and Burleigh-Miami in the centre and north.

The LNP topped the poll in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 49.1% in Varsity to 51.5% in Palm Beach.

The ALP’s vote was highest in Varsity, and lowest in Palm Beach.

I estimate that the two-party-preferred vote for the Liberal National Party ranges from 59.3% in Varsity to 63.3% in Palm Beach.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % LNP 2PP Total % of votes
Burleigh-Miami 50.08 31.45 60.02 8,995 32.37
Varsity 49.14 32.28 59.27 3,714 13.37
Palm Beach 51.45 27.49 63.25 3,481 12.53
Other votes 52.61 30.93 61.74 11,596 41.73
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Burleigh at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Burleigh at the 2012 Queensland state election.

8 COMMENTS

  1. Another Gold Coast seat Labor is putting a lot of effort into winning, however, like Broadwater, I think they’ll fall short. Labor’s only real shot in 2015 on the Gold Coast would be Gaven I’d expect.

  3. I agree just don’t think the tide is far enough out for Labor to make a splash in the Gold Coast. The only reason this seat has been potentially vulnerable along with Broadwater is both Michael Hart and Verity Barton have been poor performers. This has been even acknowledged in the media by the some in the LNP who considered dumping them before the state election.

    http://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/gold-coast/clive-palmer-is-chasing-secret-list-of-mps-the-lnp-is-unhappy-with/story-fnj94idh-1226901662162

    If they both retain their seat, it’s more to the fact Gold Coast is generally conservative in voting patterns not their performances as Mp’s.

  4. Does anyone have any info/interest is the Burleigh seat. It’s my home seat which Christine Smith held for the ALP for three terms until 2012. Sometime towards the end of last year I responded to a telephone poll for Burleigh (the first time i have ever been polled by phone or otherwise). What sort of swing might occur here. Current member Michael Hart has made what I would call a small presence, and I suspect will have no trouble being re-elected….

  6. I to will be voting ALP in Burleigh. But I suspect it isn’t an ALP target seat. We have received very little to nothing from Labor via the mailbox, whereas LNP have sent a couple of letters.

Comments are closed.