LNP 12.47% vs KAP
Incumbent MP
Rosemary Menkens, since 2004.
Geography
North Queensland. Burdekin stretches from the southern outskirts of Townsville all the way south to Bowen. The main towns in the seat are Ayr and Bowen. The seat covers all of Burdekin LGA and parts of Townsville and Whitsunday LGAs.
History
The seat of Burdekin has existed since 1950. For most of that time the seat has been held by the Country/National Party, although it was held by One Nation and then Labor for two terms from 1998 to 2004.
The seat was won by independent Arthur Coburn in 1950. Coburn held the seat until 1969, when he was succeeded by the Country Party’s Val Bird.
Bird held the seat until his retirement in 1983, when he was replaced by Mark Stoneman. Stoneman held the seat until his retirement in 1998.
At the 1998 election, the seat was won by One Nation’s Jeff Knuth. Knuth, like most One Nation MPs, soon quit the party. He ended up joining the City Country Alliance and ran for them in 2001.
In 2001 Knuth lost to the ALP’s Steve Rodgers. Rodgers held the seat for one term, before losing to Rosemary Menkens of the National Party in 2004.
Rosemary Menkens retained the seat in 2006 and 2009. The 2009 redistribution made Burdekin a notional Labor seat, but Menkens gained a sufficient swing to retain the seat, this time for the Liberal National Party.
In 2012, Rosemary Menkens increased her margin. The Labor vote dropped by more than half, and the Katter’s Australian Party candidate came second.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Rosemary Menkens is not running for re-election.
- BJ Davison (Independent)
- Steven Isles (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Angela Zyla (Labor)
- Belinda Johnson (One Nation)
- Dale Last (Liberal National)
- Jacinta Warland (Palmer United)
- Lindy Collins (Greens)
Assessment
Burdekin is a marginal seat in normal circumstances. In 2012, the Labor vote collapsed and Katter’s Australian Party. It is likely that Labor will overtake KAP and come second. While Burdekin was marginal throughout the 2000s, Labor never gained the seat in that period and may find it hard to win in Burdekin, even if they are in an election-winning position across Queensland.
2012 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Rosemary Menkens | Liberal National | 12,873 | 47.99 | -2.49 |
| Ronald Wadforth | Katter’s Australian | 7,044 | 26.26 | +26.26 |
| Angela Zyla | Labor | 5,520 | 20.58 | -23.18 |
| Pete Johnson | Greens | 732 | 2.73 | -3.03 |
| Amanda Nickson | Family First | 655 | 2.44 | +2.44 |
2012 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Rosemary Menkens | Liberal National | 13,808 | 62.47 | |
| Ronald Wadforth | Katter’s Australian | 8,294 | 37.53 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Burdekin have been divided into three parts: east, west and central. Polling places in the Burdekin council area have been grouped as ‘central’, those in the Townsville council area have been grouped as ‘west’, and those in the Whitsunday council area have been grouped as ‘east’.
The LNP topped the poll in all three areas, ranging from 39.5% in the west to 56% in the centre.
Katter’s Australian Party came second, with a vote ranging from 21% in the east to 30.6% in the west.
The ALP’s vote ranged from 13.8% in the centre to 30% in the east. The ALP outpolled KAP in the east, while KAP came second in the centre and the west.
The Electoral Commission does not publish two-candidate-preferred figures by polling place, so two-candidate-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | KAP prim % | ALP prim % | LNP 2CP % | Total | % of votes |
| Central | 56.02 | 27.67 | 13.80 | 65.52 | 8,266 | 30.82 |
| West | 39.46 | 30.60 | 23.35 | 54.74 | 7,091 | 26.44 |
| East | 42.16 | 21.17 | 30.07 | 62.86 | 4,772 | 17.79 |
| Other votes | 51.26 | 23.55 | 19.24 | 66.10 | 6,695 | 24.96 |
Rosemary Menkens is retiring here and Dale Last is the new LNP Candidate.
Those are some shocking results around Ayr for Labor, all the way down to 3% in one booth. Usually they only get results like that in tiny little dots on the map in the wheatbelt, not decent sized towns. Did Labor do something specific to piss off sugar cane growers?
KAP Website shows Steve Isles as Katter’s AUstralian Party candidate for BUrdekin.
Bird of Paradox – Labor has never been much liked by people in that sort of industry – add to that Labor was well and truly on the nose at that point and federally the Labor name was being tarnished also.
Looks safe LNP but there is path to an upset? sort of seat Labor would have to win on way to an overall majority?
There is an interesting three way preference deal between the KAP the independent and ON so with ALP and the greens preferencing KAP there is an avenue for an upset here
I don’t agree that Labor would have to win Burdekin on the way to an overall majority. (Perhaps Geoff has mistaken the LNP v KAP margin for a two party margin?)
Labor has only ever won Burdekin at the height of the 2001 landslide. And that was with less than 37% of the primary vote and the remainder split pretty evenly between three right-wing candidates.
With Labor’s improving fortunes I’d expect this to a revert to a regulation two party contest; which means an easy LNP retain.
According to Poll Bludger in today’s Crikey, independent BJ Davison is the LNP’s main threat in Burdekin.
The independent has had a strong campaign in the Burdekin so it will be interesting to see the result tomorrow.
My prediction: The ALP will come second here, but the LNP will retain.
Have you met the ALP candidate? She hasn’t exactly done any campaigning unlike the LNP, KAP and the Independent Bloke.