Algester – Queensland 2015

LNP 9.15%

Incumbent MP
Anthony Shorten, since 2012.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Algester covers southern parts of the City of Brisbane and parts of Logan City. Algester covers the suburbs of Algester, Parkinson, Forestdale, Hillcrest, Boronia Heights and parts of Forest Lake.

History
The seat of Algester has existed since 2001, when it replaced the former seat of Archerfield, which had existed since 1972. Both of these seats has always been held by the Labor Party.

Karen Struthers won Archerfield in 1998, following on after the retirement of Len Ardill. Struthers moved to the new seat of Algester in 2001, and was re-elected there in 2004, 2006 and 2009. Struthers served as a minister in the Bligh government from 2009 to 2012.

In 2012, Struthers was defeated by LNP candidate Anthony Shorten.

Candidates

Assessment
Labor held Algester by large margins in the 2000s, prior to a huge swing in 2012. Labor will be hoping to regain this seat.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Anthony Shorten Liberal National 13,687 50.72 +15.22
Karen Struthers Labor 9,134 33.85 -18.78
Gavan Duffy Katter’s Australian 2,286 8.47 +8.47
Justin Kerr Greens 1,877 6.96 -0.47

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Anthony Shorten Liberal National 14,735 59.15 +18.36
Karen Struthers Labor 10,177 40.85 -18.36
Polling places in Algester at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in blue, South in orange, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Algester at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in blue, South in orange, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Algester have been split into three parts: east, west and south.

The LNP topped the primary vote in all three areas. They won a majority of the primary vote in the East (55.4%) and West (51.4%), and won 44.9% in the south.

The ALP vote ranged from 31.4% in the east to 35.2% in the west.

The LNP is estimated to have won the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.8% in the south to 62.8% in the east.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
East 55.40 31.41 62.84 8,145 30.18
West 51.37 35.22 58.60 5,994 22.21
South 44.94 34.81 55.83 5,775 21.40
Other votes 49.52 34.72 57.99 7,070 26.20
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Algester at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Algester at the 2012 Queensland state election.

8 COMMENTS

  1. Anthony Shorten is running again for the LNP – will be a very close race. Labor are throwing everything at Algester and will likely limp across the line and win. Shorten has worked very hard in Algester and would be a good Minister down the track.

  2. This one would have to be good for labor given the seats history of relatively safe labor margins (72% labor in a landslide year). 09 swung hard as it did in 2012, a correction is bound to happen along with the anti-LNP swing its hard to see this being retained by Shorten but could be close

  3. This one depends on the size of the swing. I think it will be more resilient than many think. In fact this corridor of Algester/Stretton/Sunnybank will be of real interest. An area Labor has to win if they are to win government. I think Stretton is most vulnerable.

  4. This seat has swung 31.76% to the LNP since 2001, this one is bound to be one where labor could be more then hopeful of taking it back

  5. Algester, Stretton and Sunnybank all went from 2PPs of ALP 60±1% in 2009 to LNP 60±1% in 2012. It’s a fair bet they’ll all move en bloc again.

  6. Algester has been a very strong ALP seat scoring a massive 62% primary in 2006 and by all measures looked to be a blue ribbon seat for many years to come. Karen Struthers came under attack (as with Bonney Barry in Aspley) for her support the abortion legislation passed in Victoria in 2008 which saw her primary drop by over 8% in 2009. In 2012 she was adamant on taking the abortions legislation to parliament where in 2012 her vote dropped a further 8.5% diminishing the ALP vote down to a lowly 33% (from 62%) and losing what could never have been considered a loseable seat. Interesting to note is the Gavan Duffy. (former State DLP Secretary and author of Demons and Democrats (History of the DLP) and labour in Justice polled 8.5 % of the vote standing for the KAP giving a helping hand (which ended up not being needed) to end and send packing one of the Emily’s list’s pro abortion candidates out of parliament and out of office. A middle of the road ALP candidate without the extreme beliefs of Karen should easily return this seat to the ALP.

  7. If the “Southside Strip” ARE to move en bloc again, the weakest llink would have to be Stretton, where the sitting member has done very little for the electorate, save embark on a seemingly constant PR exercise of attending opening sof envelopes and appearing front and centre of every photograph possible. The Stretton result this time round will reflect the electorate’s disdain of an “MIA” member. This would be a shame for Sunnybank’s Mark Stewart and Algester’s Anthony Shorten, who have both contributed a great deal to their respective seats since the ’12 election.

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