Toowoomba North – Queensland 2012

ALP 3.2%

Incumbent MP
Kerry Shine, since 2001.

Geography
Northern parts of Toowoomba, including central Toowoomba as well as Wilsonton, Rockville, Mount Lofty, North Toowoomba, East Toowoomba, Harlaxton and parts of Newtown.

History
The seat of Toowoomba North was first contested at the 1972 election. While the seat has been held by conservative parties for a majority of its existence, it has often been won by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1972 by the ALP’s Ray Bousen, but he lost in a landslide victory for the Bjelke-Petersen government in 1974. John Lockwood of the Liberal Party won the seat in 1974.

Lockwood held the seat until the 1983 election, when he was defeated by Sandy McPhie of the National Party. At the 1983 election, the coalition between the National Party and the Liberal Party was dissolved, and a majority of Liberal MPs were defeated for re-election, including Lockwood.

McPhie held the seat until 1989, when he was defeated by the ALP’s John Flynn as part of the ALP’s return to power under Wayne Goss. Flynn lost in 1992 to the National Party’s Graham Healy.

Healy was re-elected in 1995 and served as a parliamentary secretary in the Borbidge government in 1998. He then served as a shadow minister after the ALP won the 1998 election.

In 2001, Peter Beattie’s ALP won a second term in a landslide, and the ALP’s Kerry Shine defeated Healy in Toowoomba North. Shine served as Attorney-General in the Beattie and Bligh governments from 2006 to 2009, and still holds this seat.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Kerry Shine is running for re-election. The LNP is running Trevor Watts, their unsuccessful candidate at the 2009 election. Katter’s Australian Party is running Peter Pyke, former Labor MP for Mount Ommaney from 1992 to 1995. The Greens are running Frida Forsberg.

Political situation
Toowoomba North is a typical marginal seat, with the ALP only winning the seat at their best elections. It will be a seat to watch at the upcoming election.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kerry Shine ALP 13,911 47.7 -2.7
Trevor Watts LNP 12,289 42.1 +6.0
Brett Robinson GRN 1,515 5.2 -0.4
Archie Franz FF 654 2.2 -2.2
Perry Jewell IND 494 1.7 +1.7
Neil Riethmuller IND 303 1.0 +1.0

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

 

 

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kerry Shine ALP 14,651 53.2 -4.4
Trevor Watts LNP 12,876 46.8 +4.4

Booth breakdown
Booths in Toowoomba North have been divided into two areas. The “North” area includes rural areas in the north of the seat as well as the northern suburbs of Toowoomba including Harlaxton, Rockville and Wilsonton. The “South” area covers the central suburbs of Toowoomba, including Newtown and the Toowoomba CBD.

The ALP outpolled the LNP by about 5-6% in both parts of the seat, with a vote of around 48% across both areas.

 

 

Polling booths in Toowoomba North at the 2009 state election. North in orange, South in blue.

 

 

 

 

Voter group ALP % LNP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
North 48.1 42.7 4.1 12,941 44.4
South 47.9 41.2 6.2 8,892 30.5
Other votes 46.7 42.3 5.9 7,333 25.1

 

 

 

 

Labor primary votes in Toowoomba North at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Toowoomba North at the 2009 state election.

 

 

 

7 COMMENTS

  2. Classic example of Labor voting country town that flipped in the Whitlam years. Labor’s success since 2001 might owe something to Toowoomba becoming more city-like and perhaps being pulled into the orbit of Brisbane but a lot must be due to personal vote for Kerry Shine.

  4. No ‘again’ about it. Despite giving up his nightclub business this time, Trevor Watts has still to win this seat.

  6. Shine to go, with the complete demolition of the Bligh Government. Trevor Watts has worked extremely hard and deserves a shot at it this time.

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