Thuringowa – Queensland 2012

ALP 8.5%

Incumbent MP
 Craig Wallace, since 2004.

Geography
Far North Queensland. Thuringowa covers southern and western suburbs of Townsville, including Alice River, Thuringowa Central, Condon, Rasmussen, Kelso and parts of Deeragun and Kirwan.

History
The seat of Thuringowa has existed since 1986. The seat has been won by the ALP at all but one election, with One Nation interrupting the Labor hold on the seat in 1998.

Thuringowa was won in 1986 by Labor MP Ken McElligott, who had been first elected in Townsville in 1983. He served as a minister in the Goss government from 1989 to 1991 and again from 1995 to 1996.

At the 1998 election, McElligott was defeated by One Nation’s Ken Turner. Turner, like every other One Nation MP elected at the 1998 election, soon left the party, becoming an independent in 1999.

Labor candidate Anita Phillips defeated Turner in 2001. She served one term before stepping down in 2004 to run for the federal seat of Herbert, unsuccessfully.

Craig Wallace retained the seat for Labor in 2004 and was re-elected in 2006 and 2009. He has served as a minister in the Bligh government since 2007.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Craig Wallace is running for re-election. The LNP is running Sam Cox. Katter’s Australian Party is running Steve Todeschini.

Political situation
While 8.5% is a solid margin, the seat would fall in a uniform swing to the LNP if the election reflected recent polling.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Craig Wallace ALP 12,830 49.1 -11.3
Tony Elms LNP 8,841 33.9 +5.1
Ken Turner IND 2,793 10.7 +10.7
Frank Reilly GRN 1,113 4.3 -2.1
Paul Lynam IND 534 2.0 +2.0

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Craig Wallace ALP 13,574 58.5 -8.4
Tony Elms LNP 9,641 41.5 +8.4

Booth breakdown
Booths in Thuringowa have been divided into three areas: Kirwan covers those booths closest to the centre of Townsville, with the remainder divided into South and West.

The ALP outpolled the LNP in all three areas, with the margin varying from 11.7% in Kirwan to 22.4% in the south. The vote for independent and former One Nation MP Ken Turner varied from 15% in the west to under 9% in Kirwan.

Polling booths in Thuringowa at the 2009 state election. Kirwan in blue, South in green, West in orange.
Voter group ALP % LNP % IND % Total votes % of votes
Kirwan 48.5 36.8 8.8 10,194 39.0
South 52.2 29.8 12.4 7,248 27.8
West 46.7 32.7 15.3 3,367 12.9
Other votes 47.7 34.4 9.1 5,302 20.3
Labor primary votes in Thuringowa at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Thuringowa at the 2009 state election.
Primary votes for independent Ken Turner in Thuringowa at the 2009 state election.

9 COMMENTS

  1. Since One Nation won this seat in 1998 and it is in FNQ would the Katter Party not be in with a chance?

  2. I think Katter’s candidate will do rather well here, at least 20% of the vote. Both major parties will probably have a decline in their primary vote, labor moreso then the LNP.

  4. My prediction: Hard to tell, the federal results from 2010 were good for the LNP, but this seat voted strongly for One Nation in ’98 and could do so for Katter’s Australian Party in 2012.

  6. Extremely embarrassing for Labor… they’ve come third here. The ABC calls it as a LNP win, but that’s against Labor. As a LNP vs KAP result, it’ll depend where Labor’s preferences went… this could still be interesting.

  8. In reality, only the die-hard Labor supporters voted for Wallace, the rest went with KAP. Majority of the die-hards would have just voted 1, and not preferenced anyone. Will be close IMO.

Comments are closed.