Stretton – Queensland 2012

1. David Forde is running as an “independent”, former member of the Labor Party (ex Robertson staffer) who missed out on succeeding him as the Labor candidate and is now running as an ind.

   Greens are running Brian Sadler

   polling not going so well for Labor in Stretton:

   http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/poll-suggests-lnp-on-track-in-stretton

2. If you want to get rid of this poor Goverment, Don’t waste you vote LNP

3. Stephen Robertson is not running for re-election. The ALP candidate is local lawyer Duncan Pegg.

4. Interesting that the LNP candidate in the link provided states that she moved into the Sunnybank Hills 22 years ago, in fact she left 22 years ago to live in Logan and only moved back in a few months ago. The ALP candidate is described by ‘Jason’ as a “local lawyer” – the ALP candidate has never lived in the electorate and is employed as a union official with the National Union of Workers.

5. Stephen Robertson didn’t live in the Stretton electorate for years either. What is your point, David? At least the ALP candidate has some qualifications. What do the other candidates have?

6. No one believes David Forde is an independent – he is all for the LNP now that he has been beaten.

7. Duncan Pegg is a strong candidate who would serve the people of Stretton well.

8. George, it may not have mattered years ago, but it does matter these days as people do take issue with people who have never contributed to the Stretton electorate, same applies to the LNP candidate. I am well qualified in terms of workplace and life experience as well as many years of community work in the electorate, can’t speak for others.

   Kim, all for the LNP ? perhaps you should read my newsletter that went out across the electorate. I am very independent, no preferences, but will talk with all sides of politics to get the best outcomes for the electorate.

   Standing for election should be more than suddenly developing an interest in a community – it should be about expanding on what you have already contributed to that community.

9. David Forde is an upright man dedicated to justice and a fair society. A great Australian. He has my support

10. How many people in the Stretton Electorate have heard of the Park Ridge Connector Project (formerly known as the Southern Gateway Extension). Look it up!!!

    It affects anybody who lives near the Logan Motorway /Wembley Road Gateway Motorway area and is a planned project by this government.

    http://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/Projects/Name/P/Park-Ridge-Connector.aspx

    Talk to your candidates about their views on this major Freight Corridor.

    Make it an election issue

    protest info http://noprc.org/

11. The independent candidate seems very negative right from the start. He has the big billboard, is getting lots of things sent out but has nothing positive to say about anything. And no policies – not that it matters, he won’t win anyway. Seems like sour grapes. Lost preselection = run as independent. I googled him and he is linked to overseas stuff but he hasn’t mentioned anything about them in this campaign. Wonder if he does believe in issues or is just about profile. Heard he tried to get in with Bob Katters Party.

12. In response to ‘Steve’, perhaps you should read my newsletters (if you live in the electorate) and you will see plenty on what I stand for and what I have done locally.

    I could no longer belong to a party that is controlled by a few, takes members for granted (look at the significant loss in membership) and has completely disengaged with the community, not that the LNP is any better, met plenty of former Libs who also resigned. My focus is what matters in Stretton, not least public transport fares that neither party wants to do anything about as they are so out of touch, prevention of the sale of our public assets, something that ALP candidate voted for and something I voted against in 2009 when I was in the ALP.

    The fact you felt the need to write about me says more about you and how vulnerable the main parties are in Stretton. 100% independent, no preferences.

13. David – the reality is you will not get elected as an independent in this electorate, nor will you even come close. Your sole goal is to take votes away from the party you claim to have supported for years. Spite is never a good look, and the constituents of Stretton deserve better.

14. David, if you were so independent why did you attend an LNP fundraiser where Billionaire Clive Palmer was the guest of honor a few weeks ago??

15. ‘Greg’, happy to answer. It is mainly through community encouragement from a wide range of key people that I am standing and also on the back of what I have done over many years in the electorate, an electorate I have wished to represent for a number of years. It is why the community has organised and supported many fundraisers for me during my campaign.

    As for not winning, time will tell (some will disagree with you), so who will win ? What have the main party candidates got to offer ? nothing, why are they shying away from debating me ? it is why they have not put out a single item on why they should be elected. This week sees my 7 – 9 wide electorate mail out.

    I was relieved when I left the ALP and with no regrets. It was also explained to me by a senior official (in front of a witness), the union official who has been preselected for the ALP in Stretton had to be preselected due to some deal as demanded by his national union secretary in Victoria (all that is wrong and why so many are leaving the ALP, a side to the ALP that shocked me and others who have also since resigned). I was also advised that the ALP did not like what I stood for (remember I voted against the privatisation of our Queensland public assets).

    I also had policy issues on several fronts and also the fact the party as I found out is controlled by a select few who care more about internal control. I have well and truly moved on and it is about time some within the ALP got over my resignation and the fact they don’t ‘own’ the seat of Stretton or the democratic process.

    If I was running on spite, would’t I direct preferences to the LNP ? of course I am not, I am not directing them to anyone.

    Yes I was invited to a fundraiser, so what, I will attend fundraisers for who and what I like. The same applies for any party, as an independent it is important for me to hear what all sides have to say, whether I agree with what they say or not – it is called having an independent mind. I should also point out there were also ALP alined people at the dinner.

16. Hi bloggers, the below article was submitted by me and published in the Southern Star newspaper:

    *****

    Sour grapes, not independence

    I’m writing in reference to David Forde’s (the Star, August 31) claim of independence from his now estranged Labor Party. I was one of the three pre-selection candidates for Stretton within the Labor party just as Mr Forde. I was not successful, just as Mr Forde, however, my first hand observation of Mr Forde’s beliefs were very different to his current public claims. It is easy for anyone to make righteous public claims but I urge the readers of this publication to ask Mr Forde three simple questions to clarify his degree of independence:

    (1) If Mr Forde is a true independent, why did Mr Forde seek for ALP’s support in multiple pre-selections over the years including the most recent, 21st May 2011, for the State seat of Stretton?

    (2) Why did Mr Forde ONLY resigned from the party within days after his unsuccessful Stretton pre-selection bid?

    (3) Exactly which independent policies that Mr Forde is passionate in to represent the people of Stretton? I haven’t heard of any specifics to date and during the pre-selection, Mr Forde was asked of the same question, his answer was, “I’ll do whatever the Premier wants me to do”. That was at an ALP members’ Q & A forum.

    I must state that of all the three years I’ve known Mr Forde personally, the relationship has been amicable and I’ve never had a conflict with him. Naturally, I am very disappointed with his decision to resign and now his new claims of “ principle and independence”. I have lost my pre-selection bid just as Mr Forde, but now I support the new Labor candidate Mr Pegg. Sour grapes I say, not independence.

17. Stanley

    You do make me laugh but perhaps I can answer the questions.

    (1) I only ever stood for preselection once, indicated other time I had an interest but never went through with it – so what.

    (2) The acts of defamation (as described by various media outlets) and attacks on me and my family by elements of the ALP, I could no longer remain. Also the fact my preselection was in part dictated by a national union secretary from Melbourne (who wouldn’t even know where Stretton was) as part of some national deal – any wonder why other members resigned and are assisting me on the campaign.

    (3) You have seen my newsletters, there is plenty there, not least on the policy issues where the ALP and LNP are no different on several fronts, not least public transport costs, asset sales and CSG. Repeated false claim re “do whatever the Premier wants”, why would I say that when I even voted against the Premier on the sale of our public assets – my labor opponent supported the sale. Why do you think I am not even doing preferences.

    As I have said many times, you really need to get over the fact I left, you are after all a self described “campaign manager” for the ALP candidate.

    I am somewhat flattered by the attention I seem to get from the ALP ‘camp’, obviously more worried about me than the LNP regarding the outcome of election.

    Happy campaigning.

18. I have voted Labor all my life but have, I think like many, have become quite apathetic with the current government and the constant negativity and personal attacks in their campaigning. I am more interested in outcomes, polices and integrity at a whole of government and electorate level. Unfortunately, I’m concered that recent antics and personal attacks from the Premier highlight a lack of ppolicies which will deliver them a next term of office. Please to all parties and candidates – a campaign built on smear attacks rather than policies quickly puts voters off and casts doubt over the integrity of those involved.

19. I feel that in voting for an independent candidate that somehow I wasted my vote and particularly in this instance where there will be no direction of preferences to major parties. It would appear to me that I have made a protest vote against the major parties and really don’t expect the independent candidate to be elected. I don’t beleive the candidate in this seat will have sufficient numbers. Personal view but I do want my vote to really count.

20. Liam, while I am not recommending preferences, there is nothing to stop you or any voter from giving a preference to any other candidate.

    I simply can’t recommend preferences for three key reasons;

    (1) People are smart enough and can make up their own mind if they want to give preferences and to whom

    (2) There is no real policy difference between the main parties on key issues getting raised in the electorate; and

    (3) Both main parties preselected candidates from outside the electorate who have never contributed to the Stretton electorate

21. My prediction: LNP gain

22. Hi Anton, I would be interested in what draws you to that conclusion ?

23. Hi David, I came to that conclusion based on these factors:

    1. There would be an LNP majority (albeit a small one) in this seat based on 2010 federal results.
    2. Current polling shows a large swing against the current government.
    3. The swing will most likely be higher in ALP-held seats, meaning Stretton will be more likely to fall, especially under a large swing.

24. I would guess the same based on the Reachtel polling here. LNP gain but I cannot discount Duncan Pegg yet.

25. Thanks Anton, yes, if the swing is on, its on. The only difference is there was no active independent at last federal or Stretton campaigns and people do vote different in this area at all levels for various factors I won’t go into on this blog. I say that because when I was in the ALP I managed the last three Stretton campaigns. Stretton is the most diverse and has approx 45% born overseas.

    The Reachtel polling gave some sort of early indication, but it would not have drawn from a huge ESL population, but even if the Reachtel were correct, the head to head findings on that place the ALP out of the race. It also showed an increase in the Green’s vote in Stretton, that won’t happen.

    Dave, Duncan Pegg will be lucky to get 20% first preference, he is a complete unknown who came from outside and is standing to represent a very unpopular government. He even acknowledged in his own preselection that his only link to the electorate was through his ALP branch.

    But time will tell and a lot can happen between now and then, including more uncertainly for Campbell Newman in Ashgrove.

26. Anton, I’ll take you up on this:

    3. The swing will most likely be higher in ALP-held seats,

    Got any evidence to back that up, based on, say, recent elections in other states? My bet would be on the swing being highest in seats that the Libs won from Labor last time (eg: Redlands, Cleveland, Gaven, Mudgeeraba) – the general election-winning swing, plus what Mumble calls the sophomore surge. Compare with seats like Ferntree Gully in the Vic 2010 election.

27. The swing will be decent in slim margin LNP seats. The swing will be bigger in ALP seats like Stretton where the long-term sitting member is going. The swing will be biggest in some of the ultra-safe ALP seats where there is a lot of Labor vote to lose.

28. David – Thanks for the info on Stretton’s demographics, and I did not use the ReachTel polling when I made my prediction.

    Bird of paradox – I had NSW 2011 in mind moreso than VIC 2010 when I said that.

    Dave – I think you’re on the money here, sounds quite like what happened in NSW 2011.

29. I don’t think NSW 2011 is a good comparison. That election had a heap of normally-Liberal seats that stayed with Labor til the bitter end, then swung over 20% (eg: Miranda, Menai). A lot of those sort of seats in Qld already went to the LNP in 2009… that campaign didn’t win, but was much more successful than the NSW Libs in 2007. I’d tip a moderate swing to LNP state-wide… add this one to 2009 and it might get near the level of the NSW bashing.

    Dave, about ultra-safe Labor seats: that’s also a NSW-specific thing. The Libs won Penrith and almost won Cabramatta in those by-elections that started bleeding Labor out before the election, so they campaigned more in Labor’s safe seats as a result. If there’d been a by-election somewhere like Inala where the LNP got a 20% swing, then that’d be an effect, but there hasn’t been, so I wouldn’t bet on it.

    Meanwhile, in SA 2010, the Libs actually did do very well in Labor’s safe seats, but that’s a different kettle of fish – that was a government that could still win the election, and did.

30. Bird of Paradox, there has been some strong campaigns in very safe Labor seats. One ALP member in an ultra-safe seat has proclaimed they are the underdog as the LNP has a bigger team, got more sign sites, bought mobile billboards, has had 4-5 pieces already professionally delivered and has a massive budget- this is in an Inala-like seat.

    There are still what would be considered naturally LNP seats that have not yet come back into the fold because of the historical poor performance of the Liberals. I would expect that once the LNP wins these this time around that they will hold onto them for a significant time.

    Stretton surely has potential to swing, I have a mate who lives here and there are large areas where my house would fit into their entrance without much trouble. The demographics at least on the face of it looks in favour of the LNP.

31. Another narrow LNP gain.

32. Hi all

    I just wanted to pipe in here as someone that feels that his personal political views are shared by none of the candidates, and my endorsing any of them will actually go against my values !

    I will cut my arm off before I vote for the LNP. Like all states across the world with two majority parties, the ALP has become basically centre-left, and their interest in workers is basically negligible. I would consider voting first for the Green party except I know nothing about the candidate. And David Forde, I will not vote for you. Your conduct on this forum has shown you are belligerent and petty.

    Where is the political party that represents my views ? I want a socialist reform of the economic, social, cultural and political institutions. But no matter how you look at it, you are voting for the status quo.

    Thanks.

33. David Forde got 20% here. Not quite second place, but probably the best result for a new independent at this election. His preferences went about half and half, so the Libs won comfortably despite the combined Labor+Forde vote being more than the Libs. Reminds me a fair bit of Morley (WA, 2008) – a disgruntled ex-Labor candidate splitting the vote and handing the Libs the seat on a plate. If Forde hadn’t run, this could’ve been a lot closer.

34. The Brisbane swing would have wiped out Labor here anyway. Possibly much of Forde’s vote come from those who might otherwise have gritted their teeth and voted LNP otherwise.

35. Yeah ignore the double ‘otherwise’ there………………….

36. “Bird of paradox”, I would say if the ALP candidate hadn’t run it would have been even closer (Reachtel poll also clearly showed that). Any vote he got was based on locked in “ALP” voters in a seat that has always been ALP but one he admitted he had no real connection to. The vote I got was based on a range of reasons (bar the standard 4%), that vote simply would not have gone to Pegg if it had been between the two major parties and it was a case of who you vote for as your number one.

    If this had of been a contest between the ALP candidate and the LNP this seat would have ended up a very safe LNP seat (for now). About the only thing that worked for the ALP in Stretton was the second preference card that was in my colours and implied I wanted people to preference the ALP, that clearly worked on some occasions.

    But in the end we will never know and the people have spoken, the LNP candidate won and good luck to her for the next three years.

37. Interesting concept the idea- if the guy who had run second had not run I would have won :S

    A lot of what-ifs in there. At the end of the day the voters in Stretton got it right as they say.

38. Dave, not what I said at all – re read

39. Apologies David- I stand corrected- not ‘won’ but ‘closer’. Still an interesting statement 🙂

40. No worries, as they say we will never know and the people have ‘spoken’

41. David Forde spent the most money on his campaign but still came 3rd in a 4 horse race and got less than 20% of the primary vote. He had to rely on people from outside the electorate to come and help hand out on polling day. He certainly wins the “hot air” award for the 2012 state election.

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