ALP 3.5%
Incumbent MP
Peter Lawlor, since 2001.
Geography
Northern Gold Coast. Southport includes the suburbs of Arundel, Parkwood, Ernest, Molendinar, Southport and parts of Ashmore.
History
Southport has existed in its current form since the 1977 election. For most of that time the seat was held by the National Party, although it is now a Labor seat.
The seat was first won in 1977 by Liberal candidate Peter White. He held the seat until resigning in 1980 to run for the 1981 by-election for the federal seat of McPherson. He held McPherson until his retirement in 1990.
Doug Jennings won Southport for the National Country Party in 1980. He had previously been the Liberal MP for the Victorian state seat of Westernport from 1976 to 1979, when he was expelled from his party and then lost his seat at the election. He held Southport until his death in 1987.
Mick Veivers won Southport for the National Party in 1987 after Jennings’ death. He served as a minister in the Borbidge coalition government from 1996 to 1998 and continued to hold his seat until his defeat in the landslide election of 2001.
The ALP’s Peter Lawlor won Southport in 2001 with a swing of almost 14% off the National Party. The former Gold Coast City alderman has held the seat ever since. He has served as Minister for Tourism and Fair Trading since 2009.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Peter Lawlor will be running for re-election. The LNP is running former Gold Coast city councillor Rob Molhoek. The Greens are running Stephen Dalton. Katter’s Australian Party is running Kevin Brown.
- Rob Molhoek (Liberal National)
- Stephen Dalton (Greens)
- Peter Lawlor (Labor)
- Kevin Brown (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Matthew MacKechnie (Independent)
Political situation
Southport was a consistent National Party seat prior to the 2001 landslide and will be a seat the LNP will be targetting in 2012.
2009 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Peter Lawlor | ALP | 11,945 | 45.3 | -7.1 |
Tania Wright | LNP | 10,646 | 40.4 | +2.3 |
Stephen Dalton | GRN | 1,931 | 7.3 | -2.2 |
Brian Morris | DSQ | 856 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
Mark Tull | IND | 622 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
Graeme Hill | IND | 354 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Peter Lawlor | ALP | 13,013 | 53.5 | -4.6 |
Tania Wright | LNP | 11,319 | 46.5 | +4.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Southport have been divided into three areas. From north to south, these three areas are Arundel, Southport and Ashmore.
The ALP topped the poll in all three areas, by a relatively small 2.7% margin in Arundel and a larger margin of over 10% in the other parts of the seat. The Greens polled over 9% in Southport and 6-7% in the other parts of the seat.
Voter group | ALP % | LNP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
Arundel | 43.7 | 41.0 | 6.3 | 8,138 | 30.9 |
Southport | 48.0 | 37.3 | 9.1 | 5,851 | 22.2 |
Ashmore | 48.5 | 37.3 | 6.8 | 4,897 | 18.6 |
Other votes | 43.0 | 44.2 | 7.4 | 7,468 | 28.3 |
Peter Lawlor is running again, he left the ministry in 2011 to contest this seat and hold it for Labor.
Antony Green and others have noted that this is the most “naturally Labor” seat on the Gold Coast. Anyone know why? Less affluent area, more Green-friendly, lots of Uni students??
My prediction: LNP gain
LNP gain.