LNP 21.1%
Incumbent MP
Lawrence Springborg, since 2001. Previously Member for Carnarvon 1989-1992, Member for Warwick 1992-2001.
Geography
Southern Queensland. Southern Downs cover rural areas stretching along the Queensland-NSW border. Major centres include Warwick, Stanthorpe, Millmerran, Texas, Inglewood and Goondiwindi. Southern Downs covers Goondiwindi and Southern Downs LGAs and parts of Toowoomba local government area.
History
The seat of Southern Downs was created at the 2001 election.
Southern Downs in 2001 was won by Lawrence Springborg, who had been a National Party MP since 1989, first for Carnarvon and then for Warwick.
Springborg had previously served briefly as a minister in the final months of the Borbidge government in 1998.
Springborg became leader of the National Party in 2003, and led the party to the 2004 and 2006 elections.
He stepped down as leader in 2006, but returned to the party’s leadership in 2008.
Later in 2008 he led the Nationals into a merger with the Liberal Party, forming the Liberal National Party. He led the LNP into the 2009 state election. He served as deputy leader of the LNP from 2009 to 2011.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Lawrence Springborg is running for re-election. Katter’s Australian Party is running Ade Larsen.
- Ade Larsen (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Lawrence Springborg (Liberal National)
- Michael Kane (Greens)
- John Spellman (Family First)
- Suzanne Kidman (Labor)
Political situation
Southern Downs is a very safe LNP seat.
2009 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Lawrence Springborg | LNP | 20,041 | 68.3 | -1.5 |
Geoffrey Keating | ALP | 7,590 | 25.9 | -3.5 |
Bob East | GRN | 1,724 | 5.9 | +5.6 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Lawrence Springborg | LNP | 20,315 | 71.1 | +0.7 |
Geoffrey Keating | ALP | 8,226 | 28.9 | -0.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Southern Downs have been divided into four areas. Booths in the Warwick urban area have been grouped together. Booths in Goondiwindi LGA have been grouped as ‘West’, while booths in the rest of the seat have been divided into ‘North’ and ‘South’.
The LNP primary vote varied from 65% in Warwick to 72% in the north. The ALP vote varied from 23% in the north to 29% in Warwick.
Voter group | LNP % | ALP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
Warwick | 65.2 | 29.1 | 5.7 | 7,425 | 25.3 |
South | 66.5 | 25.9 | 7.6 | 5,908 | 20.1 |
North | 72.0 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 4,773 | 16.3 |
West | 70.0 | 26.6 | 3.3 | 4,607 | 15.7 |
Other votes | 69.3 | 23.7 | 6.9 | 6,642 | 22.6 |
KAP should win this seat
Teenage Labor candidate Peter Watson was expelled from the party today after admitting to posting a series of online rants.
Labor state secretary Anthony Chisholm yesterday said the Southern Downs candidate, 19, had “flatly” denied writing the online posts, but had quit anyway.
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/state-election-2012/teenage-labor-candidate-quits-over-homophobic-rants-20120221-1tk95.html#ixzz1myfA6arX
Well this one has taken a bizzare twist.
From “flat” denial, Watson is now openly gloating about his comments, and Bligh making a strange assertion that he’s some sort of rouge agent designed to infiltrate and embarass Labor. Or something.
http://www.news.com.au/national/alp-candidate-for-southern-downs-peter-watson-quits-over-online-posts-regarding-homophobia-and-neo-nazis/story-e6frfkvr-1226277213404
Plenty of social conservatives in the ALP, particularly in Queensland, I’d have thought.
My prediction: LNP retain
LNP retain with KAP finishing second.