Nicklin – Queensland 2012

IND 16.3% vs LNP

Incumbent MP
Peter Wellington, since 1998.

Geography
Sunshine Coast hinterlands. Nicklin covers Nambour, Yandina, Cooroy, Bli Bli, Mapleton and Kenilworth.

History
The seat of Nicklin has existed since 1986. The seat was dominated by the National Party until 1998, and since then has been held by an independent.

The seat was first won in 1986 by Brian Austin of the National Party. Austin had held the inner-Brisbane seat of Wavell since 1977, and moved after his seat was abolished.

Austin had been elected as a Liberal at the 1977, 1980 and 1983 elections, but defected to the Nationals following the 1983 election.

Austin was forced to retire in 1989, and the seat was won by Liberal candidate Bob King. However the result was declared void, and the 1990 by-election was won by the National Party’s Neil Turner.

Turner served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1996 to 1998, and in 1998 lost his seat to independent Peter Wellington.

Wellington won in 1998 with Labor and One Nation preferences. His vote helped prop up a minority Labor government, although only for a few months until a by-election gave Peter Beattie’s government a slim majority.

Wellington won re-election in 2001, 2004, 2006 and 2009.

Candidates
Sitting independent MP Peter Wellington is running for re-election. The LNP is running John Connolly. The Greens is running John Law. Katter’s Australian Party is running Matthew Smith.

Political situation
Wellington holds Nicklin by a substantial margin against the LNP. While a resurgent LNP should be able to cut this margin, Wellington should be able to hold on if he runs for a sixth term.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Peter Wellington IND 13,243 49.9 -1.9
Steve Morrison LNP 7,503 28.3 +3.9
Peter Baulch ALP 4,046 15.2 +1.7
Garry Claridge GRN 1,740 6.6 -1.4

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Peter Wellington IND 15,588 66.3 -8.2
Steve Morrison LNP 7,921 33.7 +8.2

Booth breakdown
Booths in Nicklin have been divided into four areas. Booths in the Nambour area have been grouped together, with the remainder divided into north, east and west.

Peter Wellington topped the poll in all area, with this vote varying from 46% in the north to 55% in Nambour. The LNP’s vote varied from 31% in the north to 24% in Nambour.

Polling booths in Nicklin at the 2009 state election. Nambourn in red, East in green, West in blue, North in yellow.

 

Voter group IND % LNP % ALP % Total votes % of votes
Nambour 55.0 24.4 15.7 6,387 24.1
North 46.1 31.2 14.4 6,212 23.4
East 46.9 30.3 17.2 5,266 19.8
West 53.7 29.3 10.6 2,272 8.6
Other votes 49.6 27.3 15.7 6,395 24.1
Primary votes for independent MP Peter Wellington in Nicklin at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Nicklin at the 2009 state election.
Labor primary votes in Nicklin at the 2009 state election.

11 COMMENTS

  2. The modelling in this seat is interesting. I expect that the KAP will attack Wellington’s primary votes, the LNP primary vote and whats left of the ALP primary. There is no way that the KAP will get close to winning 10-15 seats like some of the Katter-lovers on here are tipping. However, I do believe that the KAP will do well here and play a deciding role on whether Wellington continues as the MP here.

  3. Nicklin will go down to the wire. Connolly is a good candidate and wellingtons decision to back civil partnerships is a free hit to the LNP.

  4. You might be right James, his decision to back same sex civil unions hasn’t gone down well in his electorate. I also doubt Katter will preference Wellington after that decision which will mean Nicklin becomes a lot harder to predict.

  6. The LNP are chasing a swing of over 16% if they want to win Nicklin (remember, that’d be on top of 8.2% last time). It’s got precedents, but isn’t something you’d want to bet on… independents competing against Libs or Nats have had varying results over the last few years. Here’s a few examples from state elections. (I’m including the SA Nats, as they only ever had one MP, but not people like Greg Piper or Kris Hanna in Labor seats.)

    In Victoria, Russell Savage and Craig Ingram both lost their seats with a 20% swing, in 2006 and 2010. In SA, Rory McEwen and Karlene Maywald also got a 20% swing against them in those years. McEwen survived that, and then managed to hand Mt Gambier on to another independent when he retired. Maywald lost her seat, though.

    Meanwhile in SA, the other independents belted the Libs in 2010. Mt Gambier stayed independent, Geoff Brock improved massively on his by-election win, and Bob Such kept his massive margin. In NSW, there was a general 10-15% swing from independents to the Coalition (part of the even bigger pro-Coalition swing generally), so Richard Torbay and Clover Moore stayed on but the others lost. In WA in 2008, the Libs formed govt but couldn’t get rid of Janet Woollard, got thumped in Kalgoorlie and didn’t even run against Liz Constable. And in the NT, Gerry Wood crushed all opposition with a 77.6% primary vote (which must be close to a record).

    So, the examples the LNP want to look at are in Vic or SA. There’s fairly specific reasons those independents got large swings against them. The two in SA became ministers in the Labor govt, Russell Savage got shafted by the Labor party he’d supported in the 90’s (failure to get trains back to Mildura, a toxic waste dump planned for the town), and Craig Ingram became unpopular for going on holidays while his electorate got flooded. (That one might’ve been a tabloid press beat-up, but it certainly got the desired result.) So, unless Wellington has done something specifically local to irritate his electorate (same-sex unions don’t count), he shouldn’t have much trouble winning again. Even KAP wouldn’t be a major factor if plenty of their votes exhaust.

  7. All very interesting points made. I would certainly agree with Phil (although it sickens me to say this). KAP will certainly not preference a civil union supporter. That would also place in doubt a number of ALP supporters of the civil union. I am aware that there is still no preference deal between the ALP and KAP regardless. In fact I understand that katter is quite openly knocking the ALP at every turn. Katter’s belief is that they will win to form minority government. I don’t think that they will do well in Nicklin as Connolly (‘the coach’) is too strong. Unfortunately this is one where the LnP will go well.

  8. We can only hope for the seat of Nicklin that we will see a party that supports local farmers through creating competition in the market place, opposes mining companies walking all over land owners and delivers affordable reliable electricity to residents and small business alike through maintaining public ownership of assets, somthing the Liberal party WILL NOT do. The coach has got a big area to cover in the next 8 weeks and has had a big preseason session yet the policy of his party does not allow him the privilage of speaking with the voters about these crucial issues, I don’t expect any missed tackles from my opposition and I am prepared for some big hit’s, anyone that wishes to join the rolling maul bind tight and we will be unstopable , our farmers and small business need point’s on the board.
    Matthew Smith.
    Katter’s Aus Party Candidate for Nicklin 0418 982 594

  10. BoP, I think the issue with NSW 2011 and Vic 2010 was that they were “change” elections. People were determined to get the Coalition in, and the minor parties and Indies found it hard to get a look in anywhere.

    SA 2010 and Vic 2006 weren’t change elections so the Indies did a lot better, except those with specific personal circumstances that made them less electable (e.g. Savage).

    Qld 2012 is highly likely to be a change election, so I’d suggest all the Indies except Liz Cunningham will find it harder to hold their seats. Wellington’s margin is solid, but so was Ingram’s. And Ingram didn’t do much wrong and was a good fit for Gippsland East.

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