Murrumba – Queensland 2012

ALP 7.2%

Incumbent MP
Dean Wells, since 1986. Previously Federal Member for Petrie 1983-1984.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Murrumba covers southern parts of Moreton Bay local government area. It covers the suburbs of Deception Bay, Rothwell, Mango Hill and Griffin, and parts of Burpengary and Narangba, all suburbs on the northern fringe of Brisbane.

History
The seat of Murrumba has existed continuously since 1912. It was held by the Country/National Party from 1918 to 1977, and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1977.

The seat was held by Frank Nicklin from 1932 to 1950, when he moved to the new seat of Landsborough. He served as Premier of Queensland from 1957 to 1968.

First David Nicholson and then Des Frawley were elected as Country Party MPs in Murrumba. In 1977 Frawley lost to the ALP’s Joe Kruger. Kruger held the seat until his retirement in 1986.

Dean Wells won Murrumba in 1986. He had previously served as federal Member for Petrie for 18 months from 1983 to 1984. Wells served as a minister in two successive Labor state governments: from 1989 to 1995 and from 1998 to 2004. He has retained Murrumba for nine elections straight from 1986 to 2009.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Dean Wells is running for re-election. The LNP is running Reg Gulley.

Political situation
The LNP will have some chance of overturning the ALP margin of 7.2% in this seat, although the chances of a Labor win may depend on whether the sitting MP is running for re-election

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Dean Wells ALP 12,921 50.8 -4.2
Peter Flannery LNP 9,428 37.1 +4.5
Rodney Blair GRN 1,914 7.5 +1.7
Sally Vincent FF 1,171 4.6 +4.6

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Dean Wells ALP 13,745 57.2 -4.9
Peter Flannery LNP 10,280 42.8 +4.9

Booth breakdown
Booths in Murrumba have been divided into four areas. From the north to the south, these areas are Burpengary, Deception Bay, East and South.

The ALP outpolled the LNP in all four areas, with the margin varying from 26.9% to 5.3%.

Polling booths in Murrumba at the 2009 state election. Burpengary in blue, Deception Bay in green, East in red, South in orange.

 

Voter group ALP % LNP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Deception Bay 57.2 30.3 8.3 7,771 30.6
South 47.0 41.7 7.4 4,726 18.6
East 47.6 39.3 7.4 4,607 18.1
Burpengary 46.3 42.8 6.6 3,070 12.2
Other votes 50.2 37.5 7.2 5,260 20.7
Labor primary votes in Murrumba at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Murrumba at the 2009 state election.

6 COMMENTS

  2. I may have to disagree on this one, everyone in the Murrumba electorate knows Dean Wells for better or for worse. Although I believe his time is up and is well and truly past his use by date, I doubt he’ll lose it. Deception Bay is always the killer here for the LNP. Will come down to the wire though.

  4. These outer suburban seats can swing big time when the general swing is on. And I’m pretty sure this area would have voted Liberal at federal level, during the Howard era if not 2010.

  5. There was a Labor majority recorded here in 2010, mainly as a result of Petrie swinging less than the QLD average.

    However, as a lot us know, Petrie was a Liberal seat from 1996-2007 and the area covered by Murrumba would most likely have returned a Liberal 2PP during this period.

  6. LNP should gain, but this is probably the outer northern seat Labor have the best chance of retaining.

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