ALP 6.6%
Incumbent MP
Lindy Nelson-Carr, since 1998.
Geography
North Queensland. Mundingburra covers southern parts of Townsville, covering the suburbs of Heatley, Cranbrook, Aitkenvale, Mundingburra, Vincent, Gulliver, Douglas, Annandale and parts of Kirwan.
History
The seat of Mundingburra has existed since 1992, and has been won by the ALP at every general election. The ALP’s hold on the seat was broken at the 1996 by-election, when it was won by the Liberal Party.
The seat was first won in 1992 by Ken Davies, who had previously won the seat of Townsville in 1989 before moving to the new seat of Mundingburra. He won re-election in 1995 by only 16 votes.
The result in Mundingburra ended up in court, and a by-election was called in 1996. The by-election was won by Liberal candidate Frank Tanti. This resulted in the ALP government losing its majority and the National-Liberal coalition forming a minority government.
At the 1998 election, Tanti lost the seat to the ALP’s Lindy Nelson-Carr. Nelson-Carr was re-elected in 2001, 2004, 2006 and 2009. She was appointed to the ministry in 2007.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Lindy Nelson-Carr is not running for re-election. The ALP is running Mark Harrison. The LNP is running David Crisafulli. The Greens are running Bret Fishley.
- David Moyle (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Bret Fishley (Greens)
- Michael Waters (Family First)
- Mark Harrison (Labor)
- David Crisafulli (Liberal National)
Political situation
Mundingburra has been dominated by the ALP but with a 6.6% margin it could be vulnerable to the LNP if they on track to form a new government.
2009 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Lindy Nelson-Carr | ALP | 12,625 | 48.4 | -6.8 |
Colin Dwyer | LNP | 9,859 | 37.8 | +2.7 |
Jenny Brown | GRN | 2,259 | 8.7 | -0.5 |
Amanda Nickson | FF | 925 | 3.5 | +3.5 |
Francis Pauler | IND | 415 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Lindy Nelson-Carr | ALP | 13,636 | 56.6 | -4.5 |
Colin Dwyer | LNP | 10,460 | 43.4 | +4.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mundingburra have been divided into three areas: East, South and West. The ALP won a majority of the vote in the west and the east. In the south, the LNP won 45.7% to 42.6% for the ALP.
Voter group | ALP % | LNP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
West | 50.2 | 35.7 | 8.7 | 7,858 | 30.1 |
East | 51.6 | 34.0 | 9.4 | 6,672 | 25.6 |
South | 42.6 | 45.7 | 7.4 | 6,022 | 23.1 |
Other votes | 48.3 | 36.7 | 9.1 | 5,531 | 21.2 |
Mark Harrison is the preselected Labor candidate here http://www.mark4mundingburra.com.au/
For some reason, my comment on this seat failed to post, so I’ll post my prediction now.
My prediction: LNP gain
LNP gain.