Mount Coot-tha – Queensland 2012

 

ALP 5.2%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Fraser, since 2004.

Geography
Inner Brisbane. Mount Coot-tha covers the inner western Brisbane suburbs of Milton, Red Hill, Paddington, Auchenflower, Bardon and Toowong.

History
Mount Coot-tha has existed since 1950. The seat was continuously held by the Liberal Party from 1950 to 1989, and has been held by the ALP ever since.

Kenneth Morris won Mount Coot-tha for the Liberal Party in 1950. He had held the seat of Enoggera since 1944, before moving to the new seat. He was elected as Liberal Party leader in 1954. He served as Deputy Premier from 1957 to 1962. In 1963 he resigned from Mount Coot-tha and won a special election to the Senate. He served as a Senator until his retirement in 1967.

Mount Coot-tha was won in 1963 by Bill Lickiss, also of the Liberal Party. He held the seat until 1986, when he moved to the new safe Liberal seat of Moggill. He held Moggill for one term before retiring in 1989.

Lyle Schuntner was elected as Liberal MP for Mount Coot-tha in 1986, but lost his seat in 1989 to Labor candidate Wendy Edmond.

Edmond went on to retain the seat relatively comfortably. The seat became a primary target for the Queensland Greens, with Drew Hutton polling strongly at the 1995 election. Edmond became a minister in the Beattie government in 1998, and retired in 2004.

In 2004 the Greens mounted another high-profile challenge in the seat, running former journalist Andrew Carroll, but the seat was won by Labor candidate Andrew Fraser.

Fraser joined the ministry in the Beattie government in 2006. When Anna Bligh became Premier in 2007, she appointed Fraser as Treasurer. He also became Deputy Premier in September 2011.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Andrew Fraser appears to be running for re-election. The LNP is running Saxon Rice. The Queensland Greens are running Adam Stone. Katter’s Australian Party are running Margaret Waterman.

Political situation
Mount Coot-tha has a recent history of being solid for the ALP, but the margin of 5.2% is certainly vulnerable to the LNP, and recent polls suggest the LNP is on track to gain this seat. While this seat is a key target for the Greens, it will be hard for the party in a seat where both major parties are running hard to win the seat. The best option for the Greens would be if Fraser was to fall so far that the Greens overtake him, but in that scenario it’s likely the LNP would easily win.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Fraser ALP 9,544 37.9 -6.9
John Pollard LNP 9,135 36.3 +3.1
Larissa Waters GRN 5,815 23.1 +1.2
Suzanne Karamujic DSQ 335 1.3 +1.3
Dave Zwolenski IND 202 0.8 +0.8
James Sinnamon IND 163 0.6 +0.6

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Fraser ALP 12,493 55.2 -5.1
John Pollard LNP 10,120 44.8 +5.1

Booth breakdown
Booths in Mount Coot-tha have been divided into three areas. Toowong in the south, and the Central and Northern parts of the seat.

The ALP outpolled the LNP in the north, with 39% to 32%, but the LNP outpolled the ALP, by smaller margins, in the centre and in Toowong.

The Greens vote peaked at 25.6% in the North, with the Greens vote lowest at 21.8% in Toowong.

Polling booths in Mount Coot-tha at the 2009 state election. North in green, Central in orange, Toowong in blue.

 

Voter group ALP % LNP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
North 39.3 32.4 25.6 6,447 25.6
Central 37.1 38.4 22.4 6,255 24.8
Toowong 36.4 39.0 21.8 5,472 21.7
Other votes 38.4 35.8 22.4 7,020 27.9
Labor primary votes in Mount Coot-tha at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes at the 2009 state election.
Greens primary votes at the 2009 state election.

4 COMMENTS

  2. When the seat of Moggill was created it replaced Mt Coot-tha as a safe Liberal seat. The present marginal seat named Mt Coot-tha was a renaming of the former seat of Ithaca, that was held by the Liberal Party in the 1960s and 70s but was not a safe conservative seat.

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