LNP 11.3%
Incumbent MP
Bruce Flegg, since 2004.
Geography
Western Brisbane. Moggill covers the suburbs of Kenmore, Chapel Hill, Brookfield, Pullenvale, Bellbowrie, Karana Downs and Mount Crosby.
History
The seat of Moggill has existed since 1986, and in that time the seat has always been held by the Liberal Party, and now the LNP.
The seat was first won in 1986 by Liberal MP Bill Lickiss. He had served as Member for Mount Coot-tha since 1963. He retired at the 1989 election.
David Watson won Moggill in 1989. Watson had held the federal seat of Forde for the Liberal Party from 1984 to 1987. He served as a minister in the coalition government from 1996 to 1998, and served as leader of the Liberal Party from 1998 to 2001.
Watson retired in 2004, and was succeeded by Bruce Flegg.
Flegg led the Liberal Party into the 2006 election, and served as Liberal leader until December 2007. He won re-election for the Liberal National Party in 2009.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Bruce Flegg is running for re-election. The Greens are running Jake Schoermer.
- Barry Anthony Searle (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Jake Schoermer (Greens)
- Michael Nelson (Labor)
- Bruce Flegg (Liberal National)
Political situation
Moggill is a safe Liberal National seat.
2009 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Bruce Flegg | LNP | 13,826 | 49.2 | -1.5 |
Robert Colvin | ALP | 6,918 | 24.6 | -7.4 |
Philip Machanick | GRN | 3,921 | 13.9 | -3.3 |
Barry Searle | IND | 2,346 | 8.3 | +8.3 |
Andrew Bradbury | DSQ | 1,102 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Bruce Flegg | LNP | 15,586 | 61.3 | +3.3 |
Robert Colvin | ALP | 9,847 | 38.7 | -3.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Moggill have been divided into three areas: the east, the south, and Brookfield, which covers the two booths that lie well away from the Brisbane River.
The LNP topped the poll in all three areas, winning a majority with 55% in Brookfield, winning 49.9% in the south, and 45% in the east. The ALP’s vote varied from 26% in the south to 18% in Brookfield. The Greens vote varied from 15.3% in the east, to 11.6% in the south.
Voter group | LNP % | ALP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
East | 45.3 | 25.2 | 15.3 | 11,284 | 40.1 |
South | 49.9 | 26.2 | 11.6 | 8,865 | 31.5 |
Brookfield | 55.7 | 18.0 | 14.2 | 2,501 | 8.9 |
Other votes | 53.2 | 23.7 | 14.9 | 5,463 | 19.4 |
My prediction: LNP retain
LNP retain, Greens to finish second.