ALP 4.4%
Incumbent MP
Phil Reeves, since 1998
Geography
Brisbane. Mansfield covers southeastern parts of the City of Brisbane and small parts of Redland City. Mansfield covers the suburbs of Mansfield, Wishart, Upper Mount Gravatt and Mackenzie, and parts of Mount Gravatt and Eight Mile Plains.
History
The seat of Mansfield has existed since 1972. Conservative MPs held the seat from 1972 until 1989, and apart from one term the ALP has held it since 1989.
Bill Kaus held the seat from 1972 to 1986. He originally sat as a Liberal, but switched to the National Party in 1983, at the election when the coalition was dissolved and the Nationals decimated the ranks of the Liberal Party in Parliament.
He was succeeded in 1986 by Craig Sherrin, also a National Party MP. Sherrin was defeated in 1989 by ALP candidate Laurel Power.
Power lost in 1995 to Frank Carroll of the Liberal Party. He was defeated in 1998 by Phil Reeves. Reeves was re-elected in 2001, 2004 and 2009, and was promoted to the Bligh government’s ministry after the 2009 election.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Phil Reeves is running for re-election. The LNP is running Ian Walker.
- Carolyn Ferrando (Family First)
- Craig Sheehan (Greens)
- Phil Reeves (Labor)
- Ian Walker (Liberal National)
- Jarrod Wirth (Independent)
- Ray Smith (Katter’s Australian Party)
Political situation
Mansfield has been held by a party in government for its entire existence except for the period from the 1995 election until the Coalition took power in 1996.
The LNP needs to win twelve seats in addition to the seats the party won in 2009, and Mansfield is the twelfth most marginal Labor seat in the state. It will be a key target for the LNP.
2009 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Phil Reeves | ALP | 12,354 | 47.3 | -3.4 |
Adrian Hart | LNP | 10,353 | 39.6 | +4.2 |
Dean Love | GRN | 1,768 | 6.8 | -1.0 |
Jesse Webb | FF | 903 | 3.5 | -2.4 |
Wendy Fitz-Gerald | DSQ | 751 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Phil Reeves | ALP | 13,555 | 54.4 | -4.0 |
Adrian Hart | LNP | 11,368 | 45.6 | +4.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mansfield have been divided into three areas. Most booths in the seat lie in the northwestern corner of the seat, and these booths have been divided into Mansfield and Mount Gravatt. The remainder of the booths have been grouped as “South-West”.
The ALP won more primary votes than the LNP in Mansfield and Mount Gravatt, by a margin of over 10%. The LNP won a majority of votes in the South-East area.
Voter group | ALP % | LNP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
Mansfield | 48.7 | 38.0 | 5.8 | 11,829 | 45.3 |
Mount Gravatt | 48.9 | 37.3 | 7.5 | 6,026 | 23.1 |
South-East | 36.9 | 50.8 | 7.9 | 1,585 | 6.1 |
Other votes | 45.7 | 42.0 | 7.6 | 6,689 | 25.6 |
Just like to point out two things:
1. You mention Cairns in the booth breakdown section.
2. I think you meant to say “South East” where you say “South West”.
Thanks Matt, I’ve fixed the errors.
My prediction: LNP gain
Running as the Independant in this electorate in the state election I encourage all to send a message and support an independant option. Please take a look at the list of goals at my website – http://www.jarrodwirth.id.au
LNP gain.