ALP 16.7%
Incumbent MP
Tim Mulherin, since 1995.
Geography
North Queensland. Mackay covers the central suburbs of the city of Mackay from Mackay Airport to Slade Point.
History
The seat of Mackay has existed continuously since 1878. The seat has been held by Labor MPs, since 1915, although one MP became an independent for a period of five years in the 1970s.
William Forgan Smith held the seat for the ALP from 1915 to 1942. He served as Premier of Queensland from 1932 to 1942. Fred Graham held the seat from 1943 to 1969.
Ed Casey won Labor preselection in 1969. In 1972 he lost preselection, but won re-election as an independent, continuing as an independent until 1977 when he was re-admitted to the ALP caucus.
Casey served as leader of the ALP from 1978 to 1982, and continued to serve as Labor Member for Mackay until his retirement in 1995.
Tim Mulherin won Mackay in 1995. He has served as a minister in the Beattie and Bligh governments since 2005.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Tim Mulherin is running for re-election. The LNP is running John Kerslake. Katter’s Australian Party is running Lindsay Temple.
- Lindsay Temple (Katter’s Australian Party)
- John Kerslake (Liberal National)
- Luke Mathews (Greens)
- Tim Mulherin (Labor)
Political situation
Mackay is probably a safe Labor seat, although its 16.7% margin is likely to be cut down at the upcoming election.
2009 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Tim Mulherin | ALP | 16,273 | 61.4 | -0.2 |
Bob Oakes | LNP | 8,003 | 30.2 | +1.4 |
Jonathon Dykyj | GRN | 2,244 | 8.5 | +2.4 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Tim Mulherin | ALP | 16,892 | 66.7 | -0.5 |
Bob Oakes | LNP | 8,426 | 33.3 | +0.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mackay has been divided into two parts along the river, with suburbs to the north and south of the river being grouped together.
The ALP’s vote was roughly the same in both areas, around 61-62%. The LNP vote was higher at 31% in the south than the north where it was 29%. The Greens vote was higher in the north.
Voter group | ALP % | LNP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
North | 61.8 | 28.7 | 9.4 | 10,651 | 40.2 |
South | 61.0 | 31.1 | 7.9 | 9,692 | 36.5 |
Other votes | 61.1 | 31.2 | 7.7 | 6,177 | 23.3 |
I’d expect Katter’s Australian Party to do well here, given that One Nation polled just short of 27% of the vote in 1998.
And I’d just like to mention that your link to the KAP candidate actually goes to the LNP candidate’s page.
Thanks Matt, I fixed the error.
Katter Party will probably help Labor here, unless they could finish ahead of LNP.
My prediction: Labor retain, with Katter’s party polling well
Labor should retain…but again, may depend on how well KAP do and whose vote they eat into.