Lytton – Queensland 2012

ALP 12.2%

Incumbent MP
Paul Lucas, since 1996.

Geography
Eastern Brisbane. Lytton covers the Brisbane suburbs of Wynnum, Manly, Hemmant and Lota, near Moreton Bay on the southern side of the Brisbane River.

History
The seat of Lytton has existed since 1972. In that time it has been held by only two MPs, who both have served as Deputy Premier in Labor governments.

Tom Burns won the seat in 1972. He served as Labor leader following the disastrous 1974 election, and led the party to an improved result in 1977, before stepping down as leader in 1978.

He was elected as Deputy Leader in 1984 and became Deputy Premier when the ALP won power in 1989. He retired as Deputy Premier and Member for Lytton in 1996.

The 1996 Lytton by-election was won by Paul Lucas. Lucas joined the ministry in 2004. In 2007 he became Deputy Premier.

In September 2011 he retired as Deputy Premier while continuing as Attorney-General. He will step down at the 2012 election.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Paul Lucas is not running for re-election. The ALP is running Daniel Cheverton. The LNP is running Neil Symes. Katter’s Australian Party is running Jim Vote.

Political situation
Lytton would normally be considered safe for Labor with a 12.2% margin but could be vulnerable if the LNP perform very well.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Paul Lucas ALP 14,594 52.5 -4.3
Ryan Murphy LNP 8,960 32.2 +3.1
Daniel Crute GRN 1,982 7.1 -5.0
Trish Kelly IND 1,526 5.5 +5.5
Neil Plevey DSQ 739 2.7 +2.7

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Paul Lucas ALP 15,968 62.2 -4.0
Ryan Murphy LNP 9,699 37.8 +4.0

Booth breakdown
Booths in Lytton have been divided into three areas: Manly in the east, Wynnum in the north, and the remainder of booths away from Moreton Bay grouped as ‘West’.

The ALP primary vote varied from 55.7% in the west to 49.3% in Manly.

Polling booths in Lytton at the 2009 state election. Manly in orange, Wynnum in blue, West in green.

 

Voter group ALP % LNP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Wynnum 53.1 29.8 6.7 7,439 26.8
West 55.7 30.2 6.4 7,296 26.2
Manly 49.3 35.3 6.9 7,113 25.6
Other votes 51.6 34.0 8.9 5,953 21.4
Labor primary votes in Lytton at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Lytton at the 2009 state election.

17 COMMENTS

  1. Given that only 17 people lived in Lytton (the suburb) at the last census, I personally think Wynnum would be a better name for this seat.

    Back to next year’s contest, this should be quite an interesting seat to watch, given Lucas’ retirement and the swings shown in current polling.

  3. While I do believe the LNP have a good shot here, I think the race will be a lot tighter then what the poll suggests. Especially given the poll’s sample size of less than 400.

  4. Daniel Cheverton won Labor preselection for Lytton after the favourite Cr Peter Cumming rocked the boat suggesting Anna Bligh is not going to win the election.

  5. Cr Peter Cumming’s has had five terms at the local level and still Wynnum CBD lacks positive development rather than expanding the number of Op Shops. Being so close to the water the area is a diamond in the ruff. With fed up locals LNP DeidreThomson has a good chance. On the State level while the polls are indicating a swing to LNP; however I question whether the LNP are taking the seat seriously by just flying the flag with a in experienced 21 year old candidate – I believe this will loose them votes.

  6. So what do you guys think – is Neil Symes a credible choice or just flying the LNP flag? LNP have a chance of winning this seat but will the electorate warm to him?

  7. Of course Neil Symes is a credible candidate, what makes him not: his age? He is an extremley hard working young man with more credibility in his 23 years on this earth than any Labor stooge has. Daniel Cheverton is another Labor candidate who thinks he can just walk into a safe Labor seat, demand a Ministry/Shadow Ministry and take Lytton for granted. Sick to death of Labor, not again not this time!

  8. Mr Symes will have to do better than his 4bc interview. Running your nails down a blackboard would have been less cringeworthy. Hopefully he has learnt to be his own person a bit and not just parrot on about his party catchcries.

  9. Good point Phil and Mike – it is a hard choice. I’m to sick of labour taking this seat for granted and doing nothing. The area has so much potential and needs a hard working MP to get the area to where it should be and back on track. I guess Wyatt Roy has shown what the energy of youth can lead to great local member who listens and gets the best results for the area. I’m still not convinced either way. Mike is there a link to that 4BC interview?

  12. Lytton voters are generally rusted on ALP voters. Cheverton has had a lot of resources thrown at his campaign…he moved into the electorate before preselection while Symes lives in Wishart – about five minutes drive. Both those candidates have had long associations with the suburb so the issue of who lives there etc is a bit of a furphy. Cheverton is a more polished candidate but has obfuscated the fact that he was a policy advisor for Nolan in Transport (what the hell was the alp doing having an early twenty something as a policy advisor anyway) and he worked for Santos as a Government relations advisor (santos is also not mentioned because of its csg associations presumably). He has also been hanging around Paul Lucas but very little has been made of this…Lucas has been a dud member and Lytton has seen no advantages in having an ALP member let alone a minister for a long period of time. He is very young but is reasonably genuine – though the stench of lucas et al will be hard to wash off from my perspective. Cheverton on the back benches will do squilch – but again the stupid lytton voters only see bright lights and shiny smiles. Certainly symes does not inspire great confidence but he seems earnest. My hope is he will be asked to step aside (for personal reasons!) and a more experienced candidate who may not win will be parachuted into the spot. We would have Saxon Rice any day. Actually I am really pissed off with the LNP for putting such and inexperienced candidate in. I also spoke to Russell McVey of the Middle Australia Party. While McVey’s approach is sensible I dont think his platform of direct democracy will win votes in this election. QLD has more pressing problems in the actually running of the State. However his suggestion that the Lytton electorate needs a image revamp is certainly true. The Katter party will probably pick up a few fume addled nutters and the greens candidate has a non presence. All in all for an electorate so close to one of our major ports, where many people hold jobs and a fair number of them are in danger of losing jobs because of the shell closure I would have thought the parties would have taken candidate selection much more carefully. The Lytton electorate in terms of its importance to business, industry and tourism is undervalued by all parties. Shame on them.

  14. Fantastic analysis Susan. I agree a 100%. It annoys me too, that the LNP put in a inexperienced candidate. I think Neil has conducted a poor campaign…and not attending the community forum (What the!). He also came across a bit thick to me a LNP parrot rather than someone with his own goals for the area. The ALP have put a lot of money into this seat as they believe it is one that can be held. Lucas put in a minimal effort to ensure Wynnum CBD and the foreshore reached its potential. Whilst I believe Daniel has the best intentions, I don’t really see what he can do on the back bench and in such a small opposition. This seat needs to be marginal so it can get a bit of Pork Barrelling. My only hope is that Ms Thompson (council elections) gets this area back on track. Grant Cummings is very apposed to development and is as much to blame as Lucas. You are right – shame on both parties.

  15. Thanks Manly Man…I am with you re Deidre Thompson. She is very energetic and passionate about Wynnum. Cummings has had the seat far too long and really there is very little to show for it. On all sides of politics – from both ALP and Liberal Administrations in Council – quality of development in Wynnum Manly has been poor at a local level. Hopefully an Thompson can help draw more attention to the area…at least Quirk seems to be listening. As to Cheverton he will probably get in but be neutered on the back bench delivering nothing to the electorate. Yet Wynnum voters seem to be seduced by the spin and are unable evaluate what it will mean for Wynnum to be relegated to the sticks in Parliament.

  16. Well I am gobsmacked…Lytton has fallen to the LNP despite an aggressive campaign by Labor and Cheverton. I completely underestimated the depth of animosity the Queensland Public has for the Bligh Government. Cheverton was very well resourced and attacked his opponent at every turn…harping on about the local issue…but it seems that was not enough. I did speak to all the candidates before the election and Symes assured me he would move into the area if he got elected. As to how he will perform – Symes is young and will sit on the back benches – he has to somehow ensure that Lytton gets noticed in the huge number of seats won by the LNP. Again I go back to Russell McVey’s point that Lytton is in desperate need of an image revamp.

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