Ipswich West – Queensland 2012

ALP 9.5%

Incumbent MP
Wayne Wendt, since 2006.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Ipswich West covers the western Ipswich suburbs of North Ipswich, Brassall, Leichhardt and Karalee, as well as rural areas to the west of Ipswich including Pine Mountain, Fernvale, Lowood, Marburg and Rosewood.

History
Ipswich West has existed since 1960. In that time it has been won by the Labor Party at all but two elections.

The ALP held the seat from 1960 to 1974, when it was lost to the National Party at a landslide election. Labor recovered the seat in 1977.

David Underwood held the seat from 1977 until 1989, when he was replaced by Don Livingstone.

Livingstone held the seat from 1989 until 1998, when he lost to One Nation’s Jack Paff. Paff helped form the new City Country Alliance in 1999, and lost to Livingstone in 2001. Livingstone served two more terms, retiring in 2006.

The ALP’s Wayne Wendt was elected in Ipswich West in 2006 and he won a second term in 2009.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Wayne Wendt is running for re-election. The LNP is again running 2009 candidate Sean Choat. The Greens are running Ursula Monsiegneur. Katter’s Australian Party is running Justin Bowman.

Political situation
Ipswich West has a long history of being held by the ALP but current polling suggests the seat could be vulnerable.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Wayne Wendt ALP 14,518 54.0 -0.2
Sean Choat LNP 10,047 37.4 +6.1
Di Clark GRN 2,327 8.7 +1.7

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Wayne Wendt ALP 15,370 59.5 -3.2
Sean Choat LNP 10,442 40.5 +3.2

Booth breakdown
Booths in Ipswich West have been divided into three areas. Booths in Somerset local government area have been grouped together. Booths in Ipswich council have been divided into East and West. A majority of voters in the seat live in the East.

The ALP won a majority of the vote in the East and West, while the ALP won more votes than the LNP, but not a majority, in Somerset.

Polling booths in Ipswich West at the 2009 state election. Somerset in orange, East in green, West in blue.

 

Voter group ALP % LNP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
East 56.3 35.0 8.8 14,021 52.1
West 51.9 41.1 7.0 4,060 15.1
Somerset 47.3 44.6 8.1 4,036 15.0
Other votes 54.6 35.1 10.3 4,775 17.8
Labor primary votes in Ipswich West at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Ipswich West at the 2009 state election.
Labor primary votes in urban parts of Ipswich West at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in urban parts of Ipswich West at the 2009 state election.

9 COMMENTS

  1. Two months ago I would have thought that Sean Choat would win this seat on primary votes, now I’m not so sure. Labor have made it clear that they plan on attacking Newman right up until the election. This will have a trickle down effect and cut into the LNP vote. If the Greens preference Labor, which no doubt they will, then Wendt might just scrape across the line. Katter’s Party will throw a spanner in the works in this seat too. There are a lot of country people living in it. If KAP and Greens preference Labor, then I’m certain Wendt will get back in. This seat will be won on prefences.

  2. I seem to remember some announcement that the Katter Party are not going to preference anyone.

  4. I have heard some runours that Sean Choat will get the biggest swing in the state. Don’t know how true or whether my leg was being pulled but that’s what I was told.

  6. I agree with Anton Kreitzer, a big three way split, however I think Choat will Prevail, and he should after having 3 goes at it!!!

  7. Choat should win.

    However I disagree on this being the biggest three-way. The neighbouring seat of Ipswich will be with Rachel Nolan, Ian Berry (for obvious reasons) and Will Keys of Katter Party. Will Keys is cashed up and throwing everything he can at winning this seat.

  8. Sean Choat has worked tirelessly throughout this seat for the past months connecting with the community in general, he deserves a go and has the youth, intelligence and enthusiasm to
    carry the position off without a problem.

Comments are closed.