Ipswich – Queensland 2012

ALP 16.7%

Incumbent MP
Rachel Nolan, since 2001.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Ipswich covers the central suburbs of the city of Ipswich on the southern side of Bundamba creek, specifically the Ipswich central business district, Woodend, Booval, Newtown, Eastern Heights, Raceview, Churchill, Yamanto and parts of Bundamba.

History
The seat of Ipswich was first created in 1860, and existed continuously until 1960. It was restored at the 1972 election. The seat has been held by the ALP since 1983.

The newly restored seat of Ipswich was first won in 1972 by Llewellyn Edwards. He was appointed to the ministry in 1974. In 1978 he became Deputy Premier and Liberal Party leader, and continued in those roles until his retirement in 1983.

David Hamill won the seat for the ALP in 1983. He served as a minister in the Goss Labor government from 1989 to 1996. Hamill served as Treasurer in the Beattie government’s first term from 1998 to 2001, when he retired.

Rachel Nolan won Ipswich in 2001. She has served as a minister in the Bligh government since 2009.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Rachel Nolan is running for re-election. The LNP is running Ian Berry. Katter’s Australian Party is running Will Keys. Also running is controversial independent and former Greens candidate Patricia Petersen, again running as an independent.

Political situation
The seat of Ipswich is a safe Labor seat, although you’d have to expect the 16.7% margin to be cut down substantially.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rachel Nolan ALP 16,598 60.2 -5.8
Suzie Holmes LNP 8,018 29.1 +3.2
Peter Luxton GRN 1,848 6.7 -1.3
Elwyn Denman FF 1,125 4.1 +4.1

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rachel Nolan ALP 17,581 66.7 -4.7
Suzie Holmes LNP 8,774 33.3 +4.7

Booth breakdown
Booths in Ipswich have been divided into three areas, in the south, east and west. The ALP vote peaked at over 60% in the south and east, compared to 58.4% in the west.

Polling booths in Ipswich at the 2009 state election. East in green, West in blue, South in orange.

 

Voter group ALP % LNP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
South 60.1 30.8 5.3 11,479 41.6
East 60.6 27.7 7.4 8,341 30.2
West 58.4 28.6 9.1 2,532 9.2
Other votes 60.4 27.6 7.5 5,237 19.0
Labor primary votes in Ipswich at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Ipswich at the 2009 state election.

31 COMMENTS

  1. Rachel nolan is certainly running again – may be facing a suprise defeat though based on recent polling.

  4. I don’t believe them either, and I’m a die-hard conservative! I do expect a significant chunk of the margins in both seats to be gnawed at though.

  5. I too am a die-hard conservative, but it’s good to look at things realistically. However, I went down for the nsw election, and many seats fell which we didn’t even anticipate in our wildest dreams.

  6. I have to agree with Ross. I think that Rachel Nolan doesn’t have any hope whatsoever of retaining the seat of Ipswich. If I was to hazard a guess, I’d say that she was probably on only about 23% of the primary vote. I know that that means that she would need to have dropped almost 40% from last time, but I think that realistically she has plummeted this much. There are signs around Ipswich saying: “Rachel Nolan will kill energex workers” and “Rachel Nolan sold QR”. Everyone knows that she took away buses from Ipswich people and put up public transport fares when she was Transport Minister.
    The interesting question is whether people will vote independent instead of Labor or whether they will just move over to voting for the LNP. It’s very difficult to tell. Independents don’t usually do well because they aren’t typically known in their electorates. But this isn’t the case with Petersen. Everyone knows her. And she is known for standing up for workers, especially meat workers, Energex workers, QR workers and health workers. But whether this is enough for people to vote her in, I just don’t know.
    I think that at the moment the LNP is on around 37% of the primary vote, Nolan 23%, Petersen 26% and others 14%. I agree with Ross that the LNP or Petersen will win Ipswich. Nolan is out of the race altogether.

  7. I do stand by my previous comment though that Rachel Nolan will not retain seat of Ipswich. Of this I am very certain.

  8. hey I cant wait to see so many Labor member of parliaments looking for a new job after the election. I will be voting for Rachel Nolan to be going to centrelink for a job. Maybe then she will know how hard it is out in the real world. Come on can we possible handle another 3 years of labor spin, rubiish, debt and absolute disregard to money and responsibility. I am a tradesmen and I will have to agree Labor has lost its core values and I just don’t know where they lie anymore.
    Bring on Bob Katter!

  9. Perhaps I do not know politics but at 60% of the primary – some of you are predicting something special is going to happen if you think she is loosing this one.

    I cannot see Ian Berry getting up and those of you who believe the Independents are going to take Ipswich have rocks in your head.

    I have no love for Rachel Nolan but you’ve got to call a spade a spade. Outside of Inala – this one is as safe as it gets.

  10. Pauline Hanson got elected in 1996 with the words ‘Liberal Party’ next to her name (which both meant people could be confused into thinking she was still the official Liberal candidate and meant that there was no other coalition candidate), and she is an extreme example.

    Patricia Petersen is no Pauline Hanson.

  12. Because Will Keys was only nominated in the last day or so or the announcement only just happened. Earlier in the week when I looked up the KAP candidates he was not there.

  13. Ben’s actually particularly slow in putting up the Labor candidates, because they didn’t have a complete list of candidates online at the time the electorate pages got written. (For a party that may end up having an election in February, that’s leaving it bloody late.) The LNP did have such a list, and have possibly benefited from it on this site and others. The Greens, KAP, and Qld Party are somewhere in between, as minor parties that might not even end up with a complete slate of candidates.

  14. Careful you don’t get yourself banned for trolling, Hayden.

    As bird of paradox said, I have put up a lot more information about LNP and KAP candidates because they have easy-to-access lists on their website with links to candidate profiles. Clearly these candidates have only been added in the last few days, because only last week I checked to see if any new KAP candidates had been posted on the website.

    The Greens only posted their new website just before December – up until then I had only posted the names of a small number of candidates compared to KAP or LNP – despite being a Greens member. I was careful only to post those who had been announced.

  15. And as BoP said, there’s very few confirmed Labor candidates on the website because they have no list publicly available (if anyone finds one please post it on the blog).

  16. Courier Mail also said today that the ALP has not preselected 15 of the 89 seats for the upcoming election whereas the LNP has preselected 88 of 89.

    I can see Ipswich being a true three horse race where a win by ALP, LNP or even a good run by KAP could on preferences in a similar situation to what Andrew Wilke in Tasmania faced get any of them over the line.

  18. Most people in Ipswich can’t afford their own computer? That is horribly ignorant statement – Australia has one of the highest rates of PC ownership and internet connectivity in the world. Add to that smartphones and work computers and I think it is ignorant to say that the people of Ipswich all have to head down to the same local internet hangout to spruik a political candidate.

    Good to see you take a hardline approach, Ben, as many don’t (Queensland Times for example). Apologies for inflaming the situation previously – and feel free to check my email address as it, and I, are very genuine.

  19. [REMOVED – BANNED TOPIC] I’m not even an Ipswichian – I used to work in the area though and now live in Melbourne.

    Back on topic – I think this might be a very tight race that the LNP might just win. Ipswich could turn blue like Western Sydney did in the mid to late 90s. Ipswich is home to more and more new ‘aspirationalists’. That Labor has to fight so hard in its heartlands so often says a lot for the damage the ALP brand has suffered.

  20. Ah johnno, I lived and worked in the western suburbs of Brisbane until moving here in Melbourne 2011. I still keep in touch with the QT through the power of the mysterious interwebs! They have it in Melbourne too!

    And being that I know of an worked with numerous Ipswichians that they a) have computers at home, iPhones, blackberry’s and even laptops! And b) the anti-ALP sentiment with some is palpable and many friends of mine that vote Labor are planning on voting LNP because they like Newman.

    [REMOVED – BANNED TOPIC] For the record – if I was in Qld I’d vote for neither the ALP or LNP as I think Newman and Bligh are both economically inept.

  22. Katter’s Party are only polling around 10% in Ipswich. I don’t think that they are going to win. Labor, the Lib/Nat Party or independent will win Ipswich.

  23. Not since Sir Lew has this one been held by the Libs. Those who cry Pauline as an example of an independent winning clearly do not know the difference between Federal and State electorates (nor do they realise Pauline was disendorsed by the Libs before new how to votes and ballot papers could be drawn).

    It will be ALP or LNP and personally I cannot see the former President of the QLS getting enough votes to top the sitting member.

  25. Tony,

    Don’t discount Ian Berry. If he is still the same bouncing berry from QLS days then Nolan is surely gone.

  27. I am going to call a long shot, and say Rachel’s primary vote will fall so substantially I suspect she will lose as Katter preferences and maybe even Patricia’s preferences could help Ian Berry limp over the line. One to watch!

  31. Don’t get too excited Phil, Ian has secured himself a job for 3 years only…..this is one of the seats that fall once in 100 years. Labor could say nothing for 3 years and win this back. Not saying that’s a good thing, but it’s what will happen.

Comments are closed.