LNP 14.7%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Cripps, since 2006.
Geography
North Queensland. Covers the Queensland coastline between Townsville and Innisfail. The seat covers most of Cassoway Coast council area, all of Hinchinbrook, and northern parts of Townsville LGA. The seat covers Innisfail, Ingham, Cardwell, Tully, Mission Beach, and some of the northern beaches of Townsville.
History
The seat of Hinchinbrook was first created in 1950, and has been held by the Country/National/Liberal National Party since 1960.
Marc Rowell won the seat for the National Party in 1989. He briefly served as a minister in the final months of the Borbidge coalition government in 1998.
Rowell retired in 2006, and was succeeded by Andrew Cripps. Cripps won a second term in 2009.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Andrew Cripps is running for re-election. Katter’s Australian Party is running former One Nation MP for Burdekin (and brother of sitting KAP Member for Dalrymple) Jeff Knuth.
- Pamela Monaghan (Greens)
- Jeff Knuth (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Desmond Connors (Independent)
- Andrew Cripps (Liberal National)
- Tony McGuire (Labor)
Political situation
The ALP is no threat to the LNP in Hinchinbrook, and it would normally be considered safe. However, Knuth is a prominent candidate for Bob Katter’s new party, and could be a contender if Katter’s party does well.
2009 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Cripps | LNP | 14,551 | 58.0 | +10.1 |
| Mark Platt | ALP | 7,433 | 29.6 | -14.5 |
| Raymond Thompson | IND | 1,712 | 6.8 | +6.8 |
| Michelle Macklin | GRN | 1,409 | 5.6 | -0.6 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Cripps | LNP | 15,044 | 64.7 | +12.7 |
| Mark Platt | ALP | 8,212 | 35.3 | -12.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Hinchinbrook have been divided into three areas. Booths in Cassowary Coast LGA (including Innisfail) have been grouped as North. Booths in Hinchinbrook LGA have been grouped as Central, and booths in Townsville LGA have been grouped as South.
The LNP polled between 63% and 66% in the north and the centre, but only polled 40% in the south.
The ALP’s vote varied from 35.7% in the south to 25.6% in the north. Independent candidate Raymond Thompson polled over 17% in the south, but polled under 5% in the other two parts of the seat.
| Voter group | LNP % | ALP % | IND % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 65.7 | 25.6 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 8,826 | 35.2 |
| Central | 63.9 | 28.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 6.504 | 25.9 |
| South | 40.1 | 35.7 | 17.4 | 6.7 | 5,293 | 21.1 |
| Other votes | 55.2 | 31.7 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 4,482 | 17.9 |
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a swing to Labor here. That massive swing away in 2009 was caused by the Labor candidate admitting in an interview that he’d never been to the electorate and didn’t plan to (he was a uni student from Brisbane). The previous margin had been only 2%, so it’s not as safe as it looks.
Labor’s poor performance here is odd. It was notationally a Labor seat after 1992 redistribution merged it with Labor-held Mourilyan but Nats held it. Like the old Mirani sort of seat you would expect Labor to win when they do very well. If Labor could win Charters Towers in 2001 why not this? Labor’s 2006 canddiate went on to do very well in Chatsworth in 2009 so he may have helped.
My prediction: LNP retain
LNP retain. Another seat where KAP will do well.