LNP 6.5%
Incumbent MP
Ted Sorensen, since 2009.
Geography
Central Queensland. Hervey Bay covers Fraser Island and areas on the eastern shore of Hervey Bay, including Point Vernon, Urraween, Pialba, Scarness, Torquay and Urangan.
History
The seat of Hervey Bay has existed since 1992. The seat has been won by the ALP at all but two elections, with One Nation winning in 1998 and the LNP winning in 2009.
The seat was first won in 1992 by the ALP’s Bill Nunn. He had previously won the seat of Isis off the National Party in 1989.
Nunn was re-elected in 1992 and 1995 before losing in 1998 to One Nation’s David Dalgleish. Dalgleish left One Nation in 1999 to help form the City Country Alliance.
In 2001, Dalgleish was defeated by the ALP’s Andrew McNamara. McNamara was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, but was defeated in 2009 by former Hervey Bay mayor Ted Sorensen, running for the LNP.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Ted Sorensen is running for re-election. The ALP is running Bernice Allen.
- Ted Sorensen (Liberal National)
- Troy Sullivan (Family First)
- Glenn Martin (Greens)
- Isobel Dale (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Bernice Allen (Labor)
Political situation
Hervey Bay is a reasonably safe LNP seat, and should be easily retained in 2012.
2009 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Ted Sorensen | LNP | 14,396 | 50.4 | +13.8 |
Andrew McNamara | ALP | 11,047 | 38.6 | -3.0 |
Peter Schuback | IND | 1,353 | 4.7 | -1.1 |
John Fogarty | GRN | 1,278 | 4.5 | -2.5 |
Jason Powning | DSQ | 510 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Ted Sorensen | LNP | 15,251 | 56.5 | +8.6 |
Andrew McNamara | ALP | 11,741 | 43.5 | -8.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Hervey Bay have been divided into three areas. Most booths in the electorate lie at the northern end of the mainland, and these have been divided into East and West. There are two small booths to the south on the mainland, and a single booth on Fraser Island. These have been grouped as South.
The LNP won a majority in the south, and close to a majority in the west and east.
Voter group | LNP % | ALP % | IND % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
West | 49.8 | 38.8 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 11,365 | 39.8 |
East | 48.0 | 40.6 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 8,694 | 30.4 |
South | 57.6 | 33.4 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 967 | 3.4 |
Other votes | 53.0 | 36.8 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 7,558 | 26.4 |
Labor have preselected Berrice Allen here http://www.frasercoastchronicle.com.au/story/2012/01/31/mums-the-word-for-labor/
Former ALP MP’s name is Nunn, not Dunn
My prediction: LNP retain, with the KAP polling strongly
LNP retain.