Gympie – Queensland 2012

LNP 27.3%

Incumbent MP
David Gibson, since 2006.

Geography
Central Queensland. Gympie covers the Gympie urban area, other eastern parts of Gympie LGA and some northwestern parts of Sunshine Coast Regional Council. Apart from Gympie itself, the seat’s major centres are Tin Can Bay, Rainbow Beach, Cooran and Pomona.

History
The seat of Gympie was first created in 1873. The seat was abolished in 1950, and restored in 1960. Barring two terms in the early 2000s, the seat has always been won by the Country/National party since its restoration in 1960.

Max Hodges won the seat for the Country Party in 1960. He held the seat until 1979.

Len Stephan won the seat for the National Country Party in 1979. He held the seat until his retirement in 2001.

Upon Stephan’s retirement in 2001, his seat was lost to One Nation’s Elisa Roberts.

Roberts left One Nation in early 2002. She won a second term in 2004, but lost the seat in 2006 to the National Party’s David Gibson. Gibson won a second term in 2009.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP David Gibson is running for re-election.

Political situation
Gympie is the safest LNP seat in Queensland.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Gibson LNP 16,612 60.6 +14.7
Daniel Tabone ALP 4,013 14.6 +2.9
Elisa Roberts IND 3,928 14.3 +5.3
Kent Hutton GRN 2,847 10.4 +1.8

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Gibson LNP 18,057 77.2 +5.2
Daniel Tabone ALP 5,331 22.8 -5.2

Booth breakdown
Booths in Gympie have been divided into four areas. Booths in the Sunshine Coast LGA were grouped as ‘east’. Booths in Gympie LGA were divided into three parts: those in the Gympie urban area, and those to the north and south of Gympie.

The LNP won a majority of the vote in all four areas, with the LNP primary vote varying from 50.3% in the east to 69.5% in the south.

The ALP, Elisa Roberts and the Greens all polled between 10% and 15%, and each of them came second in at least one area. Roberts came second in Gympie (with 17%) and South (11.8%). The ALP came second in the north with 17.4%. The Greens came second in the east, with 20.9%.

Polling booths in Gympie at the 2009 state election. East in blue, North in red, South in green, Gympie in yellow.

 

Voter group LNP % ALP % IND % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Gympie 62.0 12.6 17.3 8.1 9,994 36.5
North 59.3 17.4 14.0 9.3 4,539 16.6
South 69.5 10.6 11.8 8.1 3,634 13.3
East 50.3 17.6 11.2 20.9 3,377 12.3
Other votes 59.7 16.9 12.9 10.5 5,856 21.4
Liberal National primary votes in Gympie at the 2009 state election.
Labor primary votes in Gympie at the 2009 state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Elisa Roberts in Gympie at the 2009 state election.
Greens primary votes in Gympie at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in the Gympie urban area at the 2009 state election.
Labor primary votes in the Gympie urban area at the 2009 state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Elisa Roberts in the Gympie urban area at the 2009 state election.
Greens primary votes in the Gympie urban area at the 2009 state election.

15 COMMENTS

  1. Why does Gympie not have a Katter party, Qld party, Independent, ALP, Green DLSP candidate registered yet? The LnP does not deserve to win this seat again. Plenty of inaction in Royal Gympie by sitting member.

  3. Hahahahahahahahaha. This is the safest LNP seat in the entire state if KAP wins this seat this election I will wall backwards to WA.

  5. Gen Y might u look at the fact one nation one this seat and the locals in this seat are sick of LNP and labor…

  7. Sorry Hayden, another seat where Katter will do well, but I strongly doubt that someone with such a substantial margin like David does is hated or sick of by the people.

  8. Gympie is only safe against Labor – they’re the party who’ll never win. If Elisa Roberts hadn’t imploded in 2006, she’d probably have had the seat for as long as she liked – Dorothy Pratt in Nanango gets to retire on her own terms, and it took a seat-abolishing redistribution to get rid of Rosa Lee Long in Tablelands.

    Part of the reason for the massive margin against Labor in 2009 would be there being less candidates – more non-Labor votes went to the LNP instead of exhausting. In 2006, Gibson only got 46%, and five other candidates got between 8% and 14% (Labor, Greens, Family First, Roberts, and an ex-Labor anti-Traveston Dam independent who finished second), for a 2cp margin of 18.2% (Nat vs Ind). 2009 was the first election since 1995 to have had a Nat vs ALP 2pp count – Gympie’s more complicated than that. Here’s some figures I pinched off Psephos / Antony Green:

    1992: Nat 7.6% vs ALP (CAP got 13.5%)
    1995: Nat 12.6 vs ALP
    1998: Nat 1.7% vs ONP
    2001: ONP 3.3% vs ALP
    2004: Roberts 10.1% vs ALP
    2006: Nat 18.2% vs Gate
    2009: Nat 27.2% vs ALP

    A 60% primary vote is pretty good for the LNP, it’s their best result in at least two decades, but they shouldn’t get complacent. If KAP wins anywhere, it’d be fairly likely to be here.

  9. The assumption that KAP could gain traction here is misplaced. ONP did well in 01 and 04 against weak Nat candidates. David Gibson is a strong, popular local member who works this diverse electorate very hard. KAP haven’t found a candidate yet … hardly a sign of strong, on the ground support.

  10. Wife and 3 kids, ex-military, Gypmie Local… I think Richard is on the money. Notwithstanding the history LNP should shit it in.

  11. Once more we have the LnP patsies who beleive that they will ‘sh#t’ it in. Tony, unfortunately your ignorance stinks to high heaven. It is only your weak party who believe that they are the likely winners. The rest of the community are sick of the LnP Brisbane centric ethos. My tip is that Campbell will not win the seat of Ashgrove. Once that happens the ‘n’ which are the undervalued nationals in the coalition equation will realise that this is truly a failed experiment. I boldly predict that Katter will have a raft of nationals flocking to the Ausparty, as they have been and will always do. Gympie is one of electorates which needs a solid member of parliament. Someone tied to the party line does the great people of this electorate a great dis-service. That is why you need an independent, Ausparty or minor party representative with a true voice not a catchline.

Comments are closed.