LNP 5.2% vs ONP
Incumbent MP
Shane Knuth (KAP), since 2009. Previously Member for Charters Towers 2004-2009.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Dalyrmple covers areas west of the great dividing range, stretching from areas to the west of Mackay up to areas to the west of Cairns. The seat covers Charters Towners, Moranbah, Atherton and Herberton.
History
The seat of Dalrymple was created at the 2009 election, largely replacing the former seats of Tablelands and Charters Towers.
Charters Towers was created most recently in 1992. Rob Mitchell held the seat for the National Party from 1992 until 2001, when the ALP’s Christine Scott won the seat.
Scott held the seat for one term, before losing to National candidate Shane Knuth in 2004. Knuth was re-elected in 2006 and joined the newly-merged Liberal National Party in 2008.
Tablelands had been restored in 1986, and was held from 1986 to 1998 by Tom Gilmore Jr, of the National Party.
In 1998, Gilmore was defeated by One Nation’s Shaun Nelson. Nelson left One Nation in 1999, and as an independent he was defeated in 2001 by Rosa Lee Long, the new One Nation candidate.
Lee Long held Tablelands for One Nation at the 2004 and 2006 elections.
When Charters Towers and Tablelands were abolished in 2009, Lee Long and Knuth both ran for Dalyrmple, and Knuth won the seat, with a 5.2% margin.
In October 2011, Shane Knuth resigned from the Liberal National Party to join Katter’s Australian Party.
Candidates
Sitting MP Shane Knuth is running for Katter’s Australian Party. The LNP is running Liz Schmidt. The ALP is running Ben Gertz.
- Jess Jones (Greens)
- Christopher Williamson (Independent)
- Shane Knuth (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Jason Briskey (Independent)
- Benjamin Gertz (Labor)
- Liz Schmidt (Liberal National)
Political situation
Dalrymple will be a contest between the sitting MP, standing for Bob Katter’s new party, and the LNP.
2009 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Shane Knuth | LNP | 10,597 | 41.4 | +6.5 |
Rosa Lee Long | ON | 8,178 | 32.0 | -0.5 |
Jason Briskey | ALP | 5,668 | 22.2 | -6.7 |
Glenn Martin | GRN | 809 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
Adrienne Freeman | IND | 248 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
Harrison Duncan | IND | 87 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Shane Knuth | LNP | 11,517 | 55.2 | |
Rosa Lee Long | ON | 9,355 | 44.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Dalrymple have been divided into three areas. Booths in Isaac and Charters Towers LGAs were grouped as Charters Towers. Booths at the northern end of the seat have been divided into Atherton and Tablelands.
One Nation won a majority of the primary vote in Atherton and Tablelands, but only 7.5% in Charters Towers. The LNP and the ALP both polled much higher in southern parts of the seat than in northern parts.
Voter group | LNP % | ONP % | ALP % | Total votes | % of votes |
Atherton | 31.4 | 50.8 | 13.3 | 10,031 | 39.2 |
Charters Towers | 54.8 | 7.5 | 35.0 | 7,393 | 28.9 |
Tablelands | 28.3 | 51.2 | 15.8 | 1,965 | 7.7 |
Other votes | 45.9 | 24.5 | 23.2 | 6,198 | 24.2 |
Ben Gertz, a Young Labor Member is running for Dalrymple
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Ben-Gertz-Labor-Candidate-for-Dalrymple/341711729188188?sk=info
Tom Gilmore’s sister Marjorie wrote a PhD on how the decline of the dairy and tobacco industries on the Tablelands contributed to support for One Nation.
My prediction: Depends on how well Knuth has performed as MP.
Predicition: KAP retain due to Knuth’s personal vote.