ALP 0.1%
Incumbent MP
Steve Kilburn, since 2009.
Geography
South-Eastern parts of the City of Brisbane. Chatsworth covers the Brisbane suburbs of Tingalpa, Belmont, Carindale, Carina Heights, Gumdale, Chandler and parts of Carina.
History
Chatsworth was first created at the 1960 election. The seat was dominated by the Liberal Party in its early years, with the Liberals holding the seat from 1960 to 1977.
In 1977 the Labor Party made a recovery against the governing National-Liberal coalition, gaining twelve seats. In Chatsworth the seat was won by the ALP’s Terry Mackenroth.
Mackenroth became a minister in the new Labor government in 1989, serving as a minister until Labor lost power in 1996. He returned to the ministry in the new Labor government in 1998.
In 2000, Mackenroth was elected Deputy Premier in the Beattie government. He became Treasurer in 2001 and served in both those roles until his retirement in 2005.
Mackenroth had held on to Chatsworth in 2004 with a 61.4% margin. This margin collapsed at the 2005 by-election, with the Liberal candidate, Brisbane City councillor Michael Caltabiano, winning the seat with a 13.9% swing.
Caltabiano was one of only seven Liberal MPs after his by-election win and he quickly rose through the ranks of the opposition. He was appointed Shadow Treasurer shortly before the 2006 state election.
At that election, Caltabiano lost Chatsworth to the Labor candidate, former sports presenter Chris Bombolas. The ALP won by barely 400 votes. Bombolas became a parliamentary secretary in the Labor government in 2007 and then retired due to poor health in 2009.
At the 2009 state election, the Liberal National Party ran Angela Caltabiano, wife of the former MP. The ALP ran firefighter Steve Kilburn.
The result was extremely close, with the ALP’s Kilburn eventually declared the winner. The case went to court and after six months the ALP was confirmed as the winner, winning by only 85 votes.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Steve Kilburn is running for re-election. The LNP is running Steve Minnikin.
- Sarah Henry (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Steve Minnikin (Liberal National)
- Steve Kilburn (Labor)
- Axel Beard (Family First)
- Jason Cooney (Greens)
Political situation
This is the ALP’s most marginal seat in the state, and would be very likely to fall if there is any substantial swing to the LNP.
2009 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrea Caltabiano | LNP | 12,760 | 45.0 | -1.7 |
| Steve Kilburn | ALP | 12,431 | 43.9 | -1.0 |
| Jason Cooney | GRN | 1,996 | 7.0 | -1.2 |
| Jason Furze | DSQ | 799 | 2.8 | +2.8 |
| Tony Zegenhagen | DLP | 347 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steve Kilburn | ALP | 13,561 | 50.1 | +0.0 |
| Andrea Caltabiano | LNP | 13,487 | 49.9 | -0.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Chatsworth have been divided into three areas. The most densely-populated part of the seat is the Carina area, which has been divided into north and south parts. The other booths in the seat have been grouped as ‘Tingalpa’.
The LNP’s vote peaked at 48.7% in Carina South and was lowest at 38.6% in Carina North. The ALP vote varied from 49.4% in Carina North to 40.7% in Carina South.
| Voter group | LNP % | ALP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Carina South | 48.7 | 40.7 | 5.9 | 8,597 | 30.3 |
| Tingalpa | 44.6 | 44.8 | 6.1 | 8,378 | 29.6 |
| Carina North | 38.6 | 49.4 | 8.1 | 5,278 | 18.6 |
| Other votes | 46.1 | 42.3 | 9.1 | 6,080 | 21.5 |
Kilburn was a surprise but did well in Hichinbrook in 2004 maybe voters love firires?
LNP should probably win, but the margin seems to come from the massive by-election swing that stuck, rather than being a true reflection of how marginal the seat is. There’s plenty of seats with bigger margins that would be more likely to fall to the LNP than Chatsworth.
If it’s a “not too bad” kind of result for Labor, this would be a seat they could probably hold, despite being the most marginal on paper.
With one month to go until polling day, I’m going to make seat-by-seat predictions, which I will update where necessary on the day before polling day (toss-ups and seats where I change my mind).
NOTE: I am not including estimated swings like I did for NSW last year, as I have not been following this election as closely.
Anyhoo, onto the predictions:
My prediction: LNP gain
Predicition: LNP gain, with a significantly smaller swing than in surrounding seats.