Cairns – Queensland 2012

ALP 4.2%

Incumbent MP
Desley Boyle, since 1998.

Geography
Far North Queensland. The seat of Cairns covers the Cairns CBD and the neighbouring suburbs of Bungalow, Westcourt, Manoora, Kanimbla, Edge Hill, Mooroobool, Earlville, Bayview Heights and Woree, and parts of White Rock.

History
Cairns has been a Labor seat for the last century, barring a short period when it was held by an Independent Labor MP.

The seat was held by Bill McCormack from 1912 to 1930. He served as Premier of Queensland from 1925 to 1929.

The seat was won in 1998 by Desley Boyle. She has served as a minister in the Beattie and Bligh governments since 2004.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Desley Boyle is not running for re-election. The ALP is running Cairns councillor Kirsten Lesina. The LNP is running journalist Gavin King. Katter’s Australian Party is running police officer Darren Hunt.

Political situation
Cairns has a long solid history of being held by the ALP, but Cairns has been changing in recent decades, as tourism has began to push out traditional blue-collar industry, and the seat is now a marginal seat that will be under threat from the LNP.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Desley Boyle ALP 12,309 45.8 -3.5
Joel Harrop LNP 10,689 39.8 +5.5
Steve Brech GRN 2,947 11.0 +2.8
Janice Skipp FF 943 3.5 +3.5

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Desley Boyle ALP 13,641 54.2 -3.8
Joel Harrop LNP 11,548 45.8 +3.8

Booth breakdown
Booths in Cairns have been divided into three areas: Central, North and South. The ALP won more primary votes than the LNP in the centre and north of the seat, while the LNP won more in the south of the seat.

Polling booths in Cairns at the 2009 state election. North in green, Central in orange, South in blue.

 

Voter group ALP % LNP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Central 47.8 38.0 10.4 10,444 38.8
North 44.6 38.1 14.3 5,527 20.6
South 43.8 44.5 8.3 4,894 18.2
Other votes 44.9 40.5 11.0 6,023 22.4
Labor primary votes in Cairns at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Cairns at the 2009 state election.
Greens primary votes in Cairns at the 2009 state election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. I think you may be a bit premature there giving it to the LNP. While I agree Labor has no one to blame but themselves for the election bloodbath they are about to be on the end of, you can’t just elect a member because they are LNP if they aren’t the right member. Gavin King has written plenty of articles for the Cairns Post which contradict things he will now have to do for the LNP. Lesina isn’t much chop either but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is one of the only marginal seats Labor manages to hold. Internal polling suggests King is also behind Katter’s Aus Party.

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