Bundamba – Queensland 2012

ALP 21.2%

Incumbent MP
Jo-Ann Miller, since 2000.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Bundamba covers the eastern Ipswich suburbs of Goodna, Redbank, Blackstone, Ebbw Vale, Riverview, Collingwood Park, Bellbird Park, Redbank Plains, Brookwater, Springfield Lakes and parts of Bundamba and Springfield. The seat covers the eastern parts of Ipswich local government area.

History
The seat of Bundamba existed from 1873 to 1912. The current seat was created in 1992, and has been held by the ALP for the last twenty years.

Bob Gibbs won the seat for the ALP in 1992. Gibbs had served as member for Wolston since 1977, and moved to Bundamba when his former seat was abolished.

Gibbs served as a minister in the Goss government from 1989 to 1996. He again served as a minister in the Beattie government from 1998 until his resignation from Parliament in 1999.

The seat was won by the ALP’s Jo-Ann Miller at a 2000 by-election. She has held the seat ever since, and served as a parliamentary secretary from 2001 to 2006.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Jo-Ann Miller is running for re-election. The LNP is running Michael Kitzelmann. Also running is independent Angela Watson, who is running alongside controversial independent candidate Patricia Petersen, who is running in the neighbouring seat of Ipswich.

Political situation
Bundamba is normally a safe Labor seat, although there has been some polling suggesting Miller could be in danger.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jo-Ann Miller ALP 15,470 61.3 -7.5
Simon Ingram LNP 5,846 23.2 +1.6
Ric Nattrass GRN 1,808 7.2 -0.7
Patricia Petersen IND 1,026 4.1 +4.1
Bevan Smith FF 666 2.6 +2.6
Cameron Hodges DSQ 411 1.6 +1.6

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jo-Ann Miller ALP 16,559 71.2 -4.0
Simon Ingram LNP 6,687 28.8 +4.0

Booth breakdown
Booths in Bundamba have been divided into three areas, in the south, east and west. The ALP vote peaked at over 63% in the east, compared to 58.7% in the south.

Polling booths in Bundamba at the 2009 state election. East in green, West in orange, South in blue.

 

Voter group ALP % LNP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
East 63.2 20.3 7.3 10,263 40.7
South 58.7 27.9 6.4 6,884 27.3
West 61.4 22.8 6.9 3,707 14.7
Other votes 60.9 22.8 8.2 4,373 17.3
Labor primary votes in Bundamba at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Bundamba at the 2009 state election.

17 COMMENTS

  2. Um, re the ‘political situation’, didn’t a poll come out on the weekend showing Miller is in great danger of losing her seat? Wondering why there is no mention of the seat could fall etc etc.

  3. Miller will win. I have been told she is not at all worried by this result because when the election is called she will call out a whole lot of unionists to do her campaigning for her and the LNP will not be able to match her union numbers.

  4. I know from a friend in the camp that LNP candidate Kitzelmann is keen to win the seat, he is out campaigning every day with a group of committed supporters alongside him. They are very active in doorknocking and letterbox drops, doing more letterbox drops than any other candidate in the Ipswich region.

    The campaign held a successful launch fundraiser and is gathering support fast. This is a seat to watch, Kitzelmann and his supporters are gaining new helpers weekly and momentum is building.

  5. Miller is currently polling at half of the primary vote she had 3 years ago. Kitzelmann is a chance in this seat but the ALP would surely still have to be favourites.

  6. I hope Kitzelmann wins here, he has worked so incredibly hard for months now, the polls show Labor’s Jo-Ann Miller will struggle to hold onto this ultra-safe Labor seat. I just hope the polls come true for Michael.

  7. Went to do my post festive season shopping yesterday and there was Michael Kitzelmann out already campaigning again. This guy must really be driven.

  8. I think Jo Ann Miller is in a lot of trouble. It doesn’t matter how many unionists are out there helping her, Labor are very much on the nose in Ipswich for all sorts of reasons. If the woman who is campaigning in the area with Patricia Petersen under the Ipswich Independents umbrella, Angela Watson, gives her preferences to the LNP candidate Michael K, then I think that the seat will fall to the LNP. I can’t see the independent winning the seat, but I can see her causing problems for Labor’s Jo Ann Miller. Even is she doesn’t preference Jo Ann Miller I think that she will pick up enough votes to split Miller’s vote and throw a spanner in the works. It might be worth keeping an eye on this seat.

  9. I think this seat will come down to the wire, but I still don’t see Jo-Ann losing, my prediction is she’ll hold it by 4-5% after the election.

  10. Would be surprising to see a seat this safe be at risk, but outer suburban seats do swing big, and the area would probably be much better for the Libs at federal level.

    Could Bundamba be the Campbelltown of Qld 2012?

  11. Michael Kitzelmann is a high profile candidate for Bundamba for the LNP. There have been some polls that indicate that something is brewing. It is noted in Bundamba by those in the know that Kitzelmann is seen everywhere with a very high profile campaign and is at the opening of a letter. He is highly visible and is going suburb by suburb talking directly to the people and actually asking for their feedback as well as giving it. If you can bet on a long-shot on election day to come in hard and fast this is the seat to put your money. Joanne Miller is in a world of hurt in a 22% seat that is not just going on a change of government swing.

  13. I think that this will be a seat that will be too close to call on election night. Living in Springfield Lakes I see Kitzelmann everywhere. In the letterbox, on the side of the road, and he has a few billboards around the electorate. All I see from Miller is a flyer where she claims to have fought the asset sales, but she really voted for them! Prediction either 50.01/49.99 to ALP, or 50.01/49.99 LNP – It will come down to the wire!

  14. Seems that Miller has been caught out on a little furphy with a flyer to her electorate claiming to have not supported the asset sales. In her one flyer out to the electorate she infers that she voted against asset sales and also says she is unstoppable.

    I refer to an article in the Australian:

    [Miller] “who voted to support the asset sales, despite her stance”

    and,

    “(But) I had no choice, caucus had to vote in a bloc and we were not allowed to have a conscience vote on the issue,”

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/elections/labor-mp-boasts-opposing-bligh-on-asset-sales-in-re-election-bid/story-fnbsqt8f-1226287790266

    Seems that the truth is that she did indeed vote for the asset sales and that her being “Unstoppable” as claimed in her flyer is a bit of creative writing as well as when it got to cabinet she was stopped in her tracks and did not stand up for her locals anyway. I know I would rather someone who stands by what they say not someone who huffs and puffs then is blown away when the going gets tough.

    This article is also a great example of the disunity creeping into Labor- obviously the rats are leaving the sinking ship of the Bligh Government and trying to save their own necks..

  15. Labor must be quite concerned about this seat to be resorting to the tactics they are now. Jo-Ann Miller’s Campaign Director is now calling the LNP Candidate a Dole Bludger (False Accusations) and trying to use the LNP Candidate’s family as a campaign tool against him. What an absolute grub these Labor people must be making such comments especially trying to make comment about a guys family life to try and get a quick vote.

    http://www.qt.com.au/story/2012/03/06/im-not-on-the-dole-lnp-candidate/

  17. Michael Kitzelmann has achieved more in this area than Miller has in her successive terms. Michael is hungry to serve the people in this electorate and will do an outstanding job of working for it. Miller is an ineffective waste of space, existing within a delusional yet highly destructive Labor Government.

    My pick – Labor will probably retain but will see a massive swing against them. I don’t believe the seat of Bundamba will be considered ‘safe’ for the ALP for some time.

    My hope – LNP will win the seat and send this parasite packing!

    Go Michael & the LNP!

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