Broadwater – Queensland 2012

ALP 2.0%

Incumbent MP
Peta-Kaye Croft, since 2001.

Geography
Northern parts of the Gold Coast. The seat covers the suburbs of Labrador, Biggera Waters, Runaway Bay, Coombabah and Paradise Point as well as South Stradbroke Island.

History
The electorate of Broadwater was first created for the 1992 election. The seat was won by the National Party from 1992 to 2001, and has been held by the ALP since then.

At the first election in 1992 the seat was considered safe for the conservative parties and was fiercely contested by the Liberal Party and the National Party, with the National Party’s Allan Grice winning the seat.

Grice held the seat at the 1995 and 1998 elections, but was defeated in 2001 by the ALP’s Peta-Kaye Croft. Croft has held the seat ever since.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Peta-Kaye Croft is running for re-election. The LNP was originally running Richard Towson, but he withdrew in January after being charged with drink driving. He was replaced by Cameron Caldwell, who was also dumped as a candidate after it was revealed that he had attended swingers clubs. He has been replaced by Verity Barton. Katter’s Australian Party is running Peter McCambridge. Former Gold Coast mayor Ron Clarke is also running.

Political situation
Broadwater was solidly conservative throughout the 1990s. With Croft only holding the seat with a 2% margin, the LNP would be looking to win this seat if it is to form a government.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Peta-Kaye Croft ALP 12,090 46.8 -5.5
Richard Towson LNP 11,345 43.9 +3.9
Graeme Maizey GRN 1,289 5.0 -0.3
Ben Monaghan DSQ 646 2.5 +2.5
Rohan Turnley IND 458 1.8 +1.8

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Peta-Kaye Croft ALP 12,829 52.0 -4.6
Richard Towson LNP 11,829 48.0 +4.6

Booth breakdown
Booths in Broadwater have been divided into three areas: Central, North and South. The ALP polled a majority of primary votes in the south, whereas the LNP slightly outpolled the ALP in the centre and north, although Greens preferences probably put Labor ahead in those areas as well.

Polling booths in Broadwater at the 2009 state election. North in yellow, Central in blue, South in green.

 

Voter group ALP % LNP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Central 44.8 46.5 4.1 7,987 30.9
North 44.8 47.6 3.6 6,284 24.3
South 54.0 34.1 7.6 4,995 19.3
Other votes 45.7 44.7 5.4 6,562 25.4
Labor primary votes in Broadwater at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Broadwater at the 2009 state election.

37 COMMENTS

  3. Doubt it Dave, whilst it’s not helping the LNP cause in Broadwater, the swings against Labor on the Gold Coast will be quite dramatic. Look at antony green’s anaylsis of the 2010 federal election and it’s implications for the 2012 state election. The seat of Broadwater in particular would be won by the LNP by over 14%. The Gold Coast has been hurt badly by Labor, and with a 2.0% margin, you would suggest any credible LNP candidate could achieve the task.

  4. Depends, DD is quite serious and if large family presence in area it may come to bite. While this election will see massive swings in seats there will also be dark horses that due to local issues or strong local members will not budge much.

  7. Well Mr. Towson should have remembered not to drive after having however many pints he had!

    Here’s hoping Mr. Caldwell doesn’t do anything retarded between now and the election.

  9. Anton – Mr. Towson didn’t do anything ‘retarded’, he drove the next morning a tiny bit over the limit. He did not intentionally drink drive. I think he made the right choice, by stepping down, it was merely bad luck on his behalf. He was a good candidate, and would have represented Broadwater well.

  10. Blood alcohol level is not luck. To get to the level required to be 0.07 in the morning requires binge drinking the night before (the body removes alcohol at about 0.01 per hour). 0.07 is not “a tiny bit” over the limit. It is 20% over the limit.

  12. I do apologise, I forgot we have perfect people on here, all of which have never made a mistake before. Richard Towson did the wrong thing, and therefore stepped down as a candidate. Move on ‘Tom the First and the Best’, looking at your user name i’d assume you are perfect?

  13. I am not perfect (I even make a mistake in my maths) no do I expect other to be. I just found your attitude to drink driving to be too casual.

    My name comes from posting on another blog under plain old “Tom” and then another person also posted under “Tom” so I soon changed to my current more distinctive user name.

  14. Here we go again, Phil, you are a crack up! You have no idea regarding the vast majority of everything!!! BEFORE POSTING ANYTHING DO YOUR RESEARCH. Your credibility is diminishing to patsy tory status per post. Well done Tom the first and the best. Very convincing argument.

  15. Terence, you are insane, stop involving yourself in everyone else’s conversation. By the way, calling me a ‘patsy tory’ a bazillion times isn’t offensive. Just shows you know oh wait NOTHING ABOUT ME? Go ruin someone else’s political blog with your Katter loving/Independent nonsense.

  16. Broadwater is unique because people vote for Peter Kaye-Croft not the Labour brand. It should be a safe Liberal (LNP) seat. When she first went for the seat she was not expected to win, very young and was unknown – but got over the line due to the Beattie swing. The elderly locals around the area like her as a local member as she is one of the rare politicians that actually give their constituents the time of day. However, after 10 years in the seat and not being a Minister raises some questions about whether her party respect her. Overall, it is a joke the LNP do not have this seat.

  17. According to Antony Green, this seat would be Liberal 14% (!!) on Federal figures.

    P-K Croft must be a very popular and hard-working member, but the reality is that when big swings happen, the good local MPs get tossed out with the rest.

    Given the room for Liberal “rebound” here, I’d expect this to swing much more than the state average.

  18. What about Katter’s Australian Party? They have candidates running in almost every Queensland seat. Perhaps your data should be updated to include parties other than the two major parties which have become extremely parallel and paralysed.

    Peter McCambridge is the Australian Party’s endorsed candidate for Broadwater. He is a fresh face. We need a change.

  19. Phil, how can you say that I am involving myself in everyone else’s conversation when you appear on every seat, with a pathetic rant here and a pathetic conservative rant there. I am not KAP. I am minor party. Your party will be knowing exactly what that feels like after March 24th.

    BTW, Broadbeach rebound to LnP seems to be highly likely when you have little campaiging by any other candidate for any other party. Pubs in the afternoon are not very proactive use of limited time!!!!!

  21. New LNP Candidate endorsed today for Broadwater – Young gun Verity Barton. Local, intelligent and hard working young woman.

  23. PCK will probably suffer a smaller swing against her than other Labor MPs given the LNPs fumbling and bumbling over candidates…..but she’s been living on borrowed time in a naturally Lib seat, and the tide will surely sweep her out in 2012.

  24. Problem for the LNP is if the Gold Coast Mayor decides to run. Losing three candidates and having a sitting high-profile Mayor would make it interesting.

  25. Give the Katter bloke a go. The voters of Broadwater deserve better than the drink driving swingers they have been offered.

  26. What does the Katter Party guy stand for in Broadwater? Some specific local policies would be great as I don’t really think ‘Billy Tea’ policies work here.

  27. sssswwwwing, another very good example of LnP quality assurance, this time the vetting procedure was not done properly and a lawyer with quite a number of skeletons who like sharing wives came out, before that a drunk, now some some young lass who as my mate phil states, is very hard working and honest. That would be a change for any LnP candidate. She should have run with the toad for the DLP or another minor party. Work ethic means nothing when you are a tory, sweetheart.

    I love how you LnP duds really think that it is going to be a whitewash.

  29. Disappointed the LNP think so little of the voters of Broadwater to put up someone with so little life experience. (Formerly rusted on LNP voter now considering an alternative)

  30. I think if Ron Clarke finishes ahead of one of the two major parties he will Win on the others preferences. If not LNP win with the new member a one-termer.

  31. A one-termer?

    If/when the LNP win Broadwater, you’d expect them to hold it until the next Labor landslide win.

    If 24th March pans out the way the polls tell us, the next Labor landslide won’t be for a while yet.

  32. I would think the way the LNP candidate was preselected they would face a very stiff challenge next time round.

  33. It is time for PK Croft to go – not because she is rumoured to have children fathered by two different blokes but because the government she is a part of is incompetent and tired.

  34. Blaming the LNP for his cut short doughnut meet and greet.. come on! Johnny Howard was considered too old at 67-68 years of age in 2007 and your 75…..pack it in old fella.

Comments are closed.