ALP 6.0%
Incumbent MP
Grace Grace, since 2007.
Geography
Central Brisbane. The seat covers the Brisbane CBD and the suburbs of Fortitude Valley, New Farm, Newstead, Spring Hill, Herston, Bowen Hills, Windsor and parts of Kelvin Grove, Wilston and Newmarket.
History
The seat of Brisbane Central has existed since 1977, and has always been held by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1977 by Brian Davis. He had previously held the seat of Brisbane from 1969 to 1974, when he lost to the Liberal Party. He held Brisbane Central from 1977 to 1989.
In 1989 Davis was succeeded by Peter Beattie, the former State Secretary of the Queensland ALP. Beattie was appointed as Minister for Health in the Goss government in 1995. In 1996, the Goss government lost power and the National-Liberal coalition took power without an election. Following this change Beattie was elected as leader of the ALP.
Peter Beattie led the ALP into the 1998 election and became Premier at the head of a Labor minority government, which quickly gained a majority following a by-election. He won landslide victories in 2001, 2004 and 2006 before retiring in 2007.
At the following by-election, the seat was won by Labor candidate Grace Grace, former general secretary of the Queensland Council of Unions. Without a Liberal candidate, Grace’s main opposition came from Greens candidate Anne Boccabella, but retained the seat comfortably with a 7.9% margin.
Grace was re-elected in 2009, but Beattie’s 2006 margin of 14.4% collapsed to only 6%.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Grace Grace is running for re-election. The LNP is running Rob Cavalluci. The Greens are running Anne Boccabella. The Queensland Party is running Ruth Bonnett.
- Anne Boccabella (Greens)
- Grace Grace (Labor)
- Ruth Bonnett (Independent)
- Rob Cavalluci (Liberal National)
Political situation
Brisbane Central has traditionally been strong for the ALP, and the current 6% margin was the product of a large swing to the LNP in 2009. It will be tough for the LNP to win the seat, but the overlapping federal seat of Brisbane was won by the Liberal Party in 2010, and this seat could be under threat in 2012. Like its neighbours, it is a strong seat for the Greens but the chances of the Greens are reduced due to the competitiveness of the seat for both major parties.
2009 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Grace Grace | ALP | 10,238 | 42.2 | -7.7 |
| Mark Wood | LNP | 9,042 | 37.2 | +8.1 |
| Anne Boccabella | GRN | 4,129 | 17.0 | -1.5 |
| Adrian Miller | DSQ | 873 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Grace Grace | ALP | 12,548 | 56.0 | -8.4 |
| Mark Wood | LNP | 9,870 | 44.0 | +8.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Brisbane Central have been divided into three areas. Booths in the south have been divided into Brisbane and New Farm, with booths in the north grouped together.
The ALP topped the poll in all three wards, with a vote between 41.7% and 43%, while the LNP’s vote was steadily around 36-37%. The Greens vote peaked at 19% in the north of the seat.
| Voter group | ALP % | LNP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| New Farm | 43.0 | 36.5 | 15.2 | 6,945 | 28.6 |
| North | 41.7 | 36.9 | 19.0 | 5,497 | 22.6 |
| Brisbane | 42.4 | 36.5 | 17.9 | 3,957 | 16.3 |
| Other votes | 41.7 | 38.5 | 16.8 | 7,883 | 32.5 |
Does anyone by chance know what the Brisbane Central result would be on 2010 federal figures?
Lib parts of federal Brisbane are on northern edge. I think stat and fed votes in Brisbane Central would be similar.
Ruth Bonnett is contesting this for the Queensland Party
Don’t rule out the LNP here. Gentrification continues apace. Just look at how quickly Newstead, Fortitude Valley and New Farm are changing. The non-Labor vote in inner Brisbane has been creeping up for years and if the swing is on, Grace Grace may grace another profession.
March 2012 promises to be an interesting election with the ALP very much on the backfoot. In fact it is pretty hard to envisage them getting back in power. Past record ain’t good to say the least. But in the case of Brisbane Central which has traditionally been an ALP seat, albeit with a swing against them in the last election. I don’t see gentrification (Richard’s comment) changing things much this time around. Grace Grace has done an extremely good job for her constituents. I am a “gentrified one” living in Fortitude Valley, I take the view that it makes more sense to retain a member with a sincere history of looking after their electorate, even if they are in opposition. Rather than taking on the unknown and untried to champion our diverse and yes ageing population. Grace knows us and we know Grace, it ain’t broke so no need to fix it. I say this as one who in the past has supported LNP but this time round I want somebody local who will shout loud and clear on my behalf. I think I know who that person is.
My prediction: Quite an uphill battle, but I think another LNP gain.
LNP gain.
Might depend on how much of Labor’s primary vote leaks to the Greens.
Looking at a few past margins for this seat (from Wikipedia), I’d be surprised if Labor lost it. It was 10.3% at the 1995 election, which Labor only just won; compare to 6.0% in 2009, a much more comfortable victory for Labor. The respective differences to the state 2pp vote were 13.6% (1995) and 5.1% (2009) … there’s 8.5% right there which you could call demographic change (minus a bit for redistributions, although this seat wouldn’t move around too much). It might go if there’s a NSW-style landslide, but I’d bet on a smaller swing than the state average.
Meanwhile, it blew out to 25% at the 2001 landslide (over 10% of which had gone by the time Beattie quit). If Labor lose it in 2012, that’d be one hell of a cumulative swing over a decade.
Liberal voters in inner-city apartments here? like Clover Moore’s electorate of Sydney which she only just held in 2011. Still a swing below average here.
BoP, sorry not quite following your line of thinking here?
The margin in 2009 is half that of 1995 despite a stronger Labor win overall…doesn’t that prove the set is more favourable to the Liberals than before, and is therefore more likely to fall tomorrow, not less?
Rough line of thinking: There is a general long-term shift towards the LNP, but it already shows up in the cumulative swing over the last decade (an 8.5% swing away from Labor compared to their state average), so it won’t be a further effect. From 25% in 2001 to 6% in 2009 makes me think most of the potential damage has already been done for Labor here. I’d expect seats that have moved in the opposite direction (held by Libs/Nats during the Goss govt but by Labor now, ie: most of the Gold Coast) to have the largest swings.
Labor statewide is heading for a 10% swing, but that could be 5% or 15% in any individual seat. I’d pick Brisbane Central as toward the bottom of that range, and therefore possible to hang onto as long as Grace has done a good job and run a good campaign.
Or then again I could be overthinking it all and the correct answer is “Queensland politics is weird, eh”.