Beaudesert – Queensland 2012

LNP 8.3%

Incumbent MP
Aidan McLindon (KAP), since 2009.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Beaudesert covers rural areas to the west of the Gold Coast and to the south of Brisbane. The seat covers most of Scenic Rim Region and southern rural parts of Logan City, including Jimboomba, Rathdowney, Beechmont, Mount Tamborine, Boonah and Aratula.

History
The seat of Beaudesert has existed since 1992. At every election the seat has been won by the National Party or its successor the LNP.

Kev Lingard won Beaudesert for the National Party in 1992. Lingard had held the seat of Fassifern since 1983. Lingard had served as Speaker for two short periods, and as a minister for the period of one work, during the final three years of the National government between 1987 and 1989.

Lingard served as Deputy Leader of the National Party from 1992 to 1998, and served as a minister in the Borbidge coalition government from 1996 to 1998.

Lingard retired in 2009. He was succeeded by Aidan McLindon, who ran for the Liberal National Party.

Amongst McLindon’s opponents in 2009 was former One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, who came third with 21% of the vote.

In 2010, McLindon had a falling out with his party when he unsuccessfully challenged Lawrence Springborg for the deputy leadership of the LNP.

In June 2010 McLindon resigned from the LNP. He later founded the Queensland Party. Over the next year, McLindon recruited candidates and built the Queensland Party up to contest the next election.

In August 2011 McLindon proposed a merger of the Queensland Party with Bob Katter’s newly-founded Australian Party. Some members of the Queensland Party rejected the merger, and McLindon switched to Katter’s Australian Party, and he will be running for this party at the 2012 election.

Candidates
Sitting MP Aidan McLindon will be running for re-election for Katter’s Australian Party. The LNP is running Jon Krause. The Greens are running Andy Grodecki.

Political situation
Beaudesert will be a contest between the Liberal National Party and McLindon. It is unclear how strong McLindon’s personal support base is, and whether the support of Bob Katter will be enough for him to hold on to the seat against an LNP challenge.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Aidan McLindon LNP 10,700 37.9 -12.6
Brett McCreadle ALP 7,012 24.8 -13.3
Pauline Hanson IND 5,998 21.2 +21.2
Keith Gee IND 2,191 7.8 +7.8
Andy Grodecki GRN 1,970 7.0 -4.4
Russell Pata DSQ 193 0.7 +0.7
Richard Somers IND 166 0.6 +0.6

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Aidan McLindon LNP 12,418 58.3 +2.4
Brett McCreadle ALP 8,879 41.7 -2.4

Booth breakdown
Booths in Caloundra have been divided into three areas: east, south and west.

The LNP vote peaked at 46.5% in the west of the seat, where the primary opposition came from Pauline Hanson, who outpolled the ALP by over 10%. The LNP’s vote dropped to 33.8% in the east, where the ALP polled almost 30%.

Polling booths in Beaudesert at the 2009 state election. East in orange, South in green, West in blue.

 

Voter group LNP % ALP % IND % Total votes % of votes
East 33.8 29.5 19.8 11,120 39.4
South 38.0 21.1 20.0 6,616 23.4
West 46.5 17.6 28.7 4,940 17.5
Other votes 38.5 26.4 19.2 5,554 19.1
Liberal National primary votes in Beaudesert at the 2009 state election.
Labor primary votes in Beaudesert at the 2009 state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Pauline Hanson in Beaudesert at the 2009 state election.

19 COMMENTS

  1. Is Katter a presence in this part of Queensland? It looks like the Nats saw off One Nation here.

    Possibly the seat is too semi-urban to react strongly to Katter.

  2. Katter is very present here on the basis that Aiden McLindon is one of two representatives for KAP in the Qld Parliament. This is his local area. I believe he may not have as big a struggle on his hands as the LnP are making out. He is against CSG and wants a 12 month freeze on it of they get in. I wish him all of the best as the LnP really don’t care for this semi rural outpost.

  5. I recall just before Christmas. Cannot remember exactly what date as it was before the haze of Alcohol and festivities 🙂 McLindon will have to basically double his vote from what the polling was and while a week is a long time in politics I have not seen something that will give McLindon the boost he needs to overcome Jon Krause. I also saw KAP is polling 4% statewide which does not bode well for him as well although I do recognise that individual seats may vary. Point being that outside of Katter territory up North it may be hard to win seats.

  6. One nation always poll well here and Aidon was elected on Pauline Hanson’s preferences last time around so this seat has a lot to give up before anyone knows who’ll get over the line.
    Preferences will definitely play a roll in this one and the LNP arrogance of the 1 Vote will no doubt do them no good at all. One Nation is running Jim Savage who’ll be well known by former One Nation/Hanson voters.

  7. Tony Z you call it arrogance; I call it common sense.

    Why would the LNP abdicate power to minor parties before an election result?

    Blind Freddy can see they are going to win it outright.

    Irrespective of how you feel about KAP and One Nation, the LNP have no need to deal with them. Nor should they.

  8. AIDAN…… AIDAN……. AIDAN…….

    Only you have stood up for the rights of the farmer in the electorate. You and otrhers have attended and protested against the ONLY TRUE SENSE OF THE DEFINITION OF TRESPASS.

    Arrow Energy are not focussed on Qld’s future.

    Do not fear a change in the polls on March 24.

    You have the courage and intestinal fortitude to prevail.

    Maintain your spirits mate. Hold your head high. We are PROUD OF YOU

  9. I would be very wary of supporting Aidan McLindon. 3 Parties in 3 Years, is he going to make it a 4th in 4 to keep the merry trend going?

    You have two questionable defections here. Firstly from the LNP where he made a Leadership challenge and basically got his own vote then left- sounds like pushing ones personal agenda and sour grapes to me. Then forming the Queensland Party as the new alternative then when convenient and a better opportunity for personal gain came up he dumped those who got behind him yet again.

    Aidan in my view and the stories of his past political ‘convictions and beliefs’ will simply have convictions which go to the highest bidder. Perhaps (if he wins which I doubt), when the KAP doesn’t work out he can join the ALP to stand up for a new set of ‘convictions’ for the people.

  10. So McLindon only entered Parliament in 2009 but already challenged for the leadership, and cracked it when he lost? What, was he expecting to win? Or was that just the excuse for him wanting to jump ship?

    Bizzare….

  11. Aidan has and will continue to be a great leader and representative of Beaudesert.

    Do not let a few whingers tell a falsity – Aidan created the Queensland Party and then he oversaw its successful merger with Katter’s Australian Party. A few unhappy people on the side doesn’t hide the fact that the majority of Queensland Party candidates are now running with the Australian Party very happily because the merger was a union of a federal party and a state party with identical philosophies.

    Those who have been complaining loudest have done so only because they put personal agendas above Queensland.

  12. As you said Bernie: “Those who have been complaining loudest have done so only because they put personal agendas above Queensland.” That is exactly what Aidan has been doing- and you are kind of forgetting the whole LNP leadership challenge which ended in tears for Aidan when basically nobody voted for him and then he soon left the party- not exactly a leader in my view that when something does not go your way you pack up your bat and ball and leave.

    Since then he has non-stop complained about the LNP and been quite hypocritical at times- i.e. Aidan complaining about his LNP opponent supposedly not being local then stating all Australia Party candidates are (or almost all) locals who have long-standing ties to their areas. Would Aidan care to tell the tale of the KAP candidate for Ipswich please?

  13. The KAP candidate for Southport also lives outside his electorate. McLindon is out for himself and himself alone. Also is an extremist! I find it hilarious the one standing up for him under the pen name “Bernie” is his right hand man Bernard Gaynor – another faceless man behind the curtains!

  15. I’m the Queensland Greens Candidate polling 7% in 2009 and 11.47% in 2006. There is very strong concern about coal and CSG exploration permits across 80% of the electorate. At the last election I alerted the community to these exploration permits. This message was lost to the media who were almostly exclusively focused upon Pauline Hanson. I was at most days of the Kerry blockade and the feeling on CSG and coal is running hot. The ALP candidate did not show and LNP candidate tried to defend his party’s position with little credibility. There is some background to the preselection processes for ALP and LNP that may result in a major swing away from both. We have two Meet the Candidate Forums scheduled for next week in Boonah on Monday night and an Australian Christian Lobby forum on Wednesday.

  17. The important issue of Coal Seam Gas exploration is crucial in this seat, so I just hope that people are listening to what the candidates are saying and not just voting along party lines.

  18. Predicition: LNP gain.

    Beaudesert turned down Pauline Hanson herself last time so it’s hard to see the KAP winning here.

Comments are closed.